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611. Challenges of Egypt's Economic Transition

Author:
Ibrahim Saif
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Egyptian economy is going through a critical period as the country transitions to democracy. While the shift from authoritarianism is certainly welcome, it has inevitably incited instability unknown to Egypt for the past thirty years. The implementation of economic reform amid this uncertainty is particularly challenging as political demands take precedence. The state attempted several times to revive the Egyptian economy since the Infitah, or “open door,” policy initiated by President Anwar Sadat in the mid-1970s. Successive, though unsuccessful, reform programs during the 1990s contributed to the pervasive poverty that served as a central driver of the 2011 Egyptian revolution and persists today. Past experiences can provide useful lessons for what to avoid in the future, even if they are unable to impart what exactly should be done.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt

612. Education for Citizenship in the Arab World: Key to the Future

Author:
Marwan Muasher and Muhammad Faour
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Any romantic notions in the West that the 2011 Arab uprisings could create instantaneous democracy in countries that have succeeded at toppling their leaders are already shattering. In the absence of strong political parties and viable civil society structures in most of the Arab world, these uprisings are proving to be only the first step in a process that will not follow a clear path and will take years to unfold. Much trial and error will take place and the region will experience multiple ups and downs before stable political and economic systems take hold.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, Education, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

613. Quid Pro Quo: Builders, Politicians, and Election Finance in India

Author:
Devesh Kapur and Milan Vaishnav
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
In developing countries where elections are costly and accountability mechanisms weak, politicians often turn to illicit means of financing campaigns. This paper examines one such channel of illicit campaign finance: India's real estate sector. Politicians and builders allegedly engage in a quid pro quo, whereby the former park their illicit assets with the latter, and the latter rely on the former for favorable dispensation. At election time, however, builders need to re-route funds to politicians as a form of indirect election finance. One observable implication is that the demand for cement, the indispensible raw material used in the sector, should contract during elections since builders need to inject funds into campaigns. Using a novel monthly-level data set, we demonstrate that cement consumption does exhibit a political business cycle consistent with our hypothesis. Additional tests provide confidence in the robustness and interpretation of our findings.
Topic:
Corruption, Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

614. Nepal's Peace Process: The Endgame Nears

Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nepal's peace process has moved into a phase of definitive progress. More than five years after the ceasefire, the parties have reached a deal on the Maoist fighters, who will leave the cantonments and enter the army or civilian life. An unofficial deal sets out power-sharing arrangements until the next election. The parties are focusing on the critical task of writing a new constitution, which promises a deep restructuring of the state to become more representative and decentralised. Challenges remain, including from continuously evolving coalition dynamics and divisions within parties. There will also have to be further discussions on the combatants. As the parties discuss federalism, which of all peace process issues goes most to the heart of ordinary Nepalis' expectations and anxieties, groups within and outside the Constituent Assembly will see their options narrow, which could strain the process. Yet, this is still the best chance the parties have had to reach formal closure on the war and to institute some of the fundamental changes they promised, provided they have the courage to make far-sighted compromises.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Politics, Armed Struggle, and Governance
Political Geography:
South Asia, Asia, and Nepal

615. Islamic Parties in Pakistan

Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The ability of Pakistan's radical Islamic parties to mount limited but potentially violent opposition to the government has made democratic reform, and by extension the reduction of religious extremism and development of a more peaceful and stable society, more challenging. This is a reflection of those parties' well-organised activist base, which is committed to a narrow partisan agenda and willing to defend it through violence. While their electoral support remains limited, earlier Islamisation programs have given them a strong legal and political apparatus that enables them to influence policy far beyond their numerical strength. An analysis of party agendas and organisation, as well as other sources of influence in judicial, political and civil society institutions, is therefore vital to assessing how Pakistan's main religious parties apply pressure on government, as well as the ability and willingness of the mainstream parties that are moderate on religious issues to resist that pressure.
Topic:
Democratization, Islam, Religion, and Governance
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

616. Good Governance and Bad Neighbors? The Limits of the Transformative Power of Europe

Author:
Tanja A. Börzel and Vera van Hüllen
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
The EU\'s Eastern Enlargement is considered to be one of the (few) successful experiments of promoting good – both effective and legitimate – governance. By contrast, the EU\'s transformative power appears to be weak or non-existent vis-à-vis its (old) neighbors in the South and its (new) neighbors in the East. Both are not only marked by \'bad governance\' but also lack a (credible) membership perspective. While the Western Balkans and Turkey have made significant progress towards good governance, both with regard to government effectiveness and democratic legitimacy, the European Neighborhood Countries (ENCs) appear to be stuck in transition or never got that far in the first place. Even when the effectiveness of their governance institutions has improved, they remain well behind the other regions and especially their democratic legitimacy is still wanting or even in decline. The paper shows that there is a correlation between an EU membership perspective and the successful transformation of neighboring countries. Therefore, it has been argued that the ineffectiveness of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) is due to the lack of this \'golden carrot\'. However, we argue that the prospects of EU membership stabilizes rather than drives the move towards effective and legitimate governance in candidate countries. Thus, a membership perspective is unlikely to either turn around negative or speed up positive developments in the EU\'s neighborhood. Even if the ENCs received a membership perspective, it would be unlikely to push them significantly towards democratic and effective governance as long as there is no endogenously driven process of change. Given the EU\'s preference for stability and state-building, the ENP does not provide an alternative for promoting good governance either. The ENP clearly lacks transformative power and where it might have some domestic impact, it risks consolidating rather than undermining authoritarian regimes by helping to strengthen their capacities for effective governance.
Topic:
Democratization, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey

617. Power to the People? Reactions to the EU's response to the Arab Spring

Author:
Jamie Balfour-Paul
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The EU has a long history of co-operation with the Arab region. Its economic and security interests in the region are considerable. In line with the European Consensus on Development, respect for human rights and democracy have been explicit values within EU development policies. Past EU co-operation in the region, especially in health and education, has achieved successes and enabled people to claim certain rights.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Human Rights, Regime Change, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Arabia

618. Growth without Economic Transformation: Economic Impacts of Ghana's Political Settlement

Author:
Lindsay Whitfield
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Since the Fourth Republic was inaugurated in 1993, politics in Ghana has been increasingly characterized by competitive clientelism. Ruling coalitions are characterized by a high degree of vulnerability in power due to a strong opposition party, by strong lower-level factions within the ruling coalition due to their importance in winning elections, and by a high degree of fragmentation among the ruling elite. These characteristics, combined with a weak domestic capitalist class and high inflows of foreign aid, have led the ruling elites across political parties to pursue and implement policies that have a short time horizon, that do not significantly shift the allocation of resources towards building productive sectors, and which are often plagued by problems of enforcement. The results have led to growth without economic transformation. In particular, the country has witnessed recurrent macroeconomic instability, a haphazard process of privatization of state-owned enterprises, and no serious attempt to build up productive sectors outside of cocoa and gold.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, Politics, Social Stratification, Foreign Aid, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

619. Pakistan 2020: A Vision for Building a Better Future

Author:
Hassan Abbas
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
In recent years, Pakistan has stumbled from one crisis to another. A number of political and socioeconomic challenges threaten to further destabilize a country that already is reeling from insurgencies along its northwestern border. Pakistan's newest democratic government is struggling to maintain control over parts of its territory where militant religious groups are intent on challenging its authority and legitimacy. The country's conflict with India over Kashmir, now in its seventh decade, appears as intractable as ever, and the war in neighboring Afghanistan has deepened instability throughout Pakistan. The transition from a near-decade-long rule under a military dictatorship is slow and complicated, as rampant corruption and politicization of the bureaucracy present huge obstacles to the state-building process.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Development, Economics, Education, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia

620. Strategische Grundprobleme externer politischer und militärischer Intervention

Author:
Jochen Hippler
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
Western foreign policy is increasingly attempting to influence and reform the internal political situation and societies in target countries (for example to achieve democratization or economic reform), instead of restricting itself to inter-governmental exchange. The record of success in this regard is hardly encouraging. Does Western foreign policy have the necessary strategies and instruments to achieve these goals? This paper will analyze the mix of foreign policy interests involved, the development of strategy, and its instruments. It then focuses on the necessary preconditions for success in the target countries, both in society and the political system. In a next step the paper analyses the problems and limits of a policy of external reform by Western governments. Finally it offers a series of short policy recommendations.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Development, Economics, Humanitarian Aid, International Security, and Foreign Aid