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551. The Great Arab Revolution: Challenges, Dilemmas and Opportunities?

Author:
Graeme P. Herd
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Beyond noting the fluidity, ambiguity and ambivalence associated with the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, there is little consensus on causes and likely consequences. Do these geopolitical earthquakes constitute an “Arab Spring” leading to transition democratization, akin to 1989 in Central and Eastern Europe? Or should we look to 1979 in Iran, and the prospect of Sunni rather than Shia theocracy taking hold? Might the wider Muslim world – Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan and Turkey – provide alternative potential governance models for the MENA region, given indigenous variants appear exhausted and no longer able to self-reproduce? What are the lessons which other MENA incumbent regimes and the international community will identify? How might those lessons be learned?
Topic:
Democratization, Regime Change, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Indonesia, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

552. Spring Tide: Will the Arab risings yield democracy, dictatorship or disorder?

Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Five months after the Arab uprising started in Tunisia, it has become possible to glimpse the likely outcomes for the region. The first section of this report traces the main political scenarios.
Topic:
Democratization and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, Morocco, Tunisia, and Oman

553. Differentiated Policies: Indonesia's International Leadership and Internal Challenges

Author:
Alistair D.B. Cook
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Indonesia's position as a regional champion of democracy and human rights has become prominent in international forums since the resignation of President Suharto in 1998 and the subsequent period of internal democratic reform. Its proactive foreign policy culminated in the establishment of the Bali Democracy Forum in 2008 to promote and strengthen democracy and the rule of law in Asia through a process of learning and sharing. While Indonesia's proactive foreign policy continues, significant internal challenges remain. This policy brief offers an insight into one of Indonesia's longest running internal challenges, Papua, and suggests the use of the human security lens as an alternative to the dominant traditional security lens used by many policymakers, in an effort to promote conflict resolution and match developments at home with its proactive strategies abroad.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

554. Assessing 12-year Military Reform in Indonesia:Major Strategic Gaps for the Next Stage of Reform

Author:
Leonard C. Sebastian and Iisgindarsah
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The Indonesian military remains one of the most crucial institutions in a democratising Indonesia and continues to be a key factor in any discussion regarding the future of the country. Forced to withdraw from formal politics at the end of the New Order regime, the military leadership has been embarking on a series of reforms to "professionalise" the armed forces, while maintaining their standing within Indonesian society. This paper attempts to provide an assessment of the military reform process during the last 12 years in Indonesia. To this end, it will provide an overview regarding the role of the Indonesian military during the Suharto era; analyse to what extent the process of democratisation has shaped the role and mission of the military; explore the perceptions and motivations of the actors involved in the reform process; review what has been achieved; and highlight the outstanding issues that remain unaddressed. With regard to the final point, this paper discerns three major strategic gaps that undermine the processes of military reform in Indonesia, namely: the "regulation loophole", the "defence-economic gap" and the "shortcomings of democratic civilian control". Considering these problems, this paper concludes that while the military officers' interest in day-to-day politics will gradually diminish, the military professionalism will ebb and flow depending more on the behaviour of political elites and their attempts to address the major strategic gaps in the next stage of the country's military reform.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

555. Europeanization Subverted? The European Union's Promotion of Good Governance and the Fight against Corruption in the Southern Caucasus

Author:
Tanja A. Börzel and Yasemin Pamuk
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
In order to foster peace, stability and prosperity in its near abroad, the European Union has invoked the European Neighbourhood Policy that seeks to transform the domestic structures of the Newly Independent States in the post-Soviet space thus building a “ring of friends” that share European norms and principles of democracy, rule of the law, market economy, and good governance. Empirical evidence, however, suggests that the EU's capacity to hit across its borders and to realize its reform agenda seems limited. Moreover, most neighborhood countries appear to be stuck in transition and suffer from serious problems of both weak state capacity and defect democracy. Hence, EU efforts may also bear the danger of unintended and negative effects on the domestic structures of states, as its policies and institutions do not only empower liberal reform coalitions, to the extent that they exist in the first place, but can also bolster the power of incumbent authoritarian and corrupt elites. This paper intends to capture this “dark side of Europeanization” (Schimmelfennig 2007). It thus conceptualizes ENP as a political opportunity structure that provides opportunities and constraints to both supporters and opponents of the European Union's reform agenda. Which of the two ultimately get empowered depends not only on the EU's capacity to push for reforms but also on the pull of domestic actors.
Topic:
Democratization, Regional Cooperation, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
Europe

556. Divided we fail: Time for the EU to speak with one voice to Belarus

Author:
Anaïs Marin
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The West has come to admit that the Belarusian regime is indifferent to incentives and sanctions alike. The crackdown on the opposition that has been ongoing since Alexander Lukashenka's last fraudulent re-election shows that Belarus is drifting ever further away from democratic values and the EU's “ring of friends”. Reversing this trend requires EU member states to acknowledge that they bear part of the responsibility for the failure of the engagement policy launched in October 2008.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Europe and Brussels

557. Much ado about nothing: The EU's transport dialogue with Russia

Author:
Katri Pynnöniemi
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Transport is one of those few topics where the EU and Russia seem to have come to an agreement. The common understanding is that further integration of the transport systems and the removal of bottle necks serves the interests of both parties in the face of the expected increase in traffic volumes.
Topic:
Democratization, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

558. Managing Ethnic Conflict: The Menu of Institutional Engineering

Author:
Matthias Basedau
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The debate on institutional engineering offers options to manage ethnic and other conflicts. This contribution systematically assesses the logic of these institutional designs and the empirical evidence on their functioning. Generally, institutions can work on ethnic conflict by either accommodating (“consociationalists”) or denying (“integrationists”) ethnicity in politics. Looking at individual and combined institutions (e.g. state structure, electoral system, forms of government), the literature review finds that most designs are theoretically ambivalent and that empirical evidence on their effectiveness is mostly inconclusive. The following questions remain open: a) Is politicized ethnicity really a conflict risk? b) What impact does the whole “menu” (not just single institutions) have? and c) How are effects conditioned by the exact nature of conflict risks?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Governance

559. Confronting the News: The State of Independent Media in Latin America

Author:
Douglas Farah
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
Freedom of expression and of the press in much of Latin America are under sustained attack by numerous authoritarian governments in the region, as well as non-state armed actors such as drug trafficking organizations and paramilitary groups. These attacks have made Latin America one of the most dangerous places in the world in which to be a journalist. Overall, the region, with the exception of the Caribbean, has suffered an almost uninterrupted deterioration of press freedoms over the past five years, reaching its lowest point since the military dictatorships of the 1980s.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Mass Media, and Governance
Political Geography:
Latin America and Caribbean

560. Elections in Africa: Mixed Blessings for Growth and Poverty Alleviation

Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Good governance and free elections are often described as preconditions for growth and poverty alleviation. But recent research tells a different story. Although elections motivate political elites to be responsive to popular demands the effects are ambiguous. This has implications for how donors should support policy initiatives in the productive sectors.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa