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491. Is There an Islamist Alternative in Egypt?

Author:
Daniela Pioppi
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
It is a common place in the literature that the Muslim Brotherhood (jama'a al-ikhwan al-muslimin) is - after its re-emergence on the political scene back in the seventies - the main (if not the only) real, organised and mass-based opposition force in Egypt. Events in Egypt in January 2011 have recast attention on this question. This paper aims to evaluate, inasmuch as it is possible, the state of health of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) today, after forty years of coexistence with the Egyptian (neo)-authoritarian regime. Has the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood represented a real alternative to the incumbent regime? Or it is more correct to speak today in terms of an almost 'functional' opposition, tamed by recurring political repression and limited freedom of action? To what extent has the Muslim Brotherhood been able to shape or at least to influence the Egyptian political and social agenda, both with respect to the regime and to other opposition forces?
Topic:
Democratization, Islam, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt

492. The Tunisian Revolution: An Opportunity for Democratic Transition

Author:
Nathalie Tocci, Rym Ayadi, Maria Cristina Paciello, and Silvia Colombo
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Owing to its macroeconomic achievements, for decades Tunisia projected an image of stability to the world and distinguished itself from other Arab countries for its progress in the areas of economic growth, health, education and women's rights. This widely held view of apparent stability was shattered on January 14, when President Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali fled the country after high levels of unemployment and inequalities resulted in widespread chaos and social unrest. Events in Tunisia raise sharp questions regarding the country's current situation and its future prospects and, more generally, the often taken-forgranted sustainability of many regimes of the Middle East and the policies of the European Union towards the region.
Topic:
Democratization and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Europe, Arabia, North Africa, and Tunisia

493. Egypt: before and after

Author:
Virginie Collombier
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Even before the current uprising began in Egypt, major changes in the political system had begun to threaten the stability of the Mubarak regime as the presidential succession became imminent. Constitutional reforms and electoral fraud could have resulted in a political deadlock in 2011. At the same time, the relative openness and freedom of expression that has emerged in Egypt since 2005 had laid the ground for new political movements to emerge and develop. Events in Tunisia, combined with a severe degradation of economic and social conditions in Egypt, and the growing perception that its citizens would have no say in the coming presidential succession, have created a favourable context for the unprecedented mobilization in Tahrir square.
Topic:
Democratization, Insurgency, and Political Power Sharing
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia

494. Making Cooperation Attractive: Post-referendum Relations between Egypt and the Sudan

Author:
Øystein Rolandsen and Jacob Høigilt
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The Sudan has gone through two harrowing civil wars since its independence in 1956. Foreign interference and assistance prolonged these, but external involvement has also been vital in Sudanese peace processes. This was the case with the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) between the Government of the Sudan and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A), the main rebel group, which was signed on 9 January 2005. The peace process that culminated in that agreement was led and hosted by the neighbouring countries through the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), with support from further afield, in particular the United States, United Kingdom, South Africa and Norway. These countries have now intensified their involvement in discussions of post-CPA arrangements. The CPA process will have momentous consequences also for Egypt, as thus for Sudanese-Egyptian relations. It is therefore important that Egypt have a clear policy towards, and a constructive engagement in, deliberations over the Sudan's future.
Topic:
Civil War, Democratization, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, United Kingdom, Sudan, and Egypt

495. The Sudan Referendum and Neighbouring Countries: Egypt and Uganda

Author:
Øystein Rolandsen, Jacob Høigilt, and Åshild Falch
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
As a former coloniser and the Sudan's Nile-valley neighbour to the north, Egypt will inevitably be affected by the Sudan's political transition. As Egypt's regional influence appears to wane, the Sudan's increasing economic strength and the likely secession of Southern Sudan exemplify Egypt's overall difficulties in regard to the regional politics of the Horn of Africa and Nile Basin. Egyptian policy-makers and diplomats struggle with fundamental contradictions in Egypt's current regional status, competing priorities, and the need to stay on good terms with all political parties in the Sudan. To be able to balance domestic needs, relations with its immediate neighbours, and its role as a regional power Egypt must reshape its foreign policy; Egypt's national interests in the Sudan preclude neutrality in the processes ahead. It can however play a key role in a joint regional and international effort to secure the peaceful secession for Southern Sudan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Civil War, Democratization, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, and Islam
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Sudan, and Egypt

496. The Muslim Brotherhood: On the Record

Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The following sampling of comments by Muslim Brotherhood leadership in Egypt explains the group's position in the current crisis and its attitudes towards the United States, Israel, and the rest of the Arab world.
Topic:
Democratization, Islam, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, Arabia, and Egypt

497. The Egyptian Military and the Fate of the Regime

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Egyptian Armed Forces (EAF) is perhaps the key actor in the current crisis. Although it has largely remained aloof from the struggle in the streets and has yet to show its hand regarding the fate of the regime, many are counting on it to act in the nation's interest, force President Hosni Mubarak from power, and facilitate a smooth transition to a successor government. This places a great deal of responsibility on the EAF and makes understanding its role in the process essential. Observers inside and outside Egypt should not take for granted that the military will either do "the right thing" or act monolithically. It is an actor with many faces and capacities, and one whose internal motivations and processes can be seen only dimly at the moment.
Topic:
Democratization
Political Geography:
Arabia and Egypt

498. From Caution to Boldness: U.S. Policy toward Egypt

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As the situation in Egypt continues to unfold, U.S. policy has evolved with breathtaking speed. Just last week, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared that the Mubarak regime was stable, but by Tuesday evening, President Obama was making the remarkable statement that Egypt's transition needs to begin "now." This is not only the most serious foreign policy challenge to this U.S. administration, but also one in a list of unforeseen and improbable challenges. Unlike scenarios involving, for example, a North Korean provocation against the South or even a catastrophic terrorist attack -- for which the United States plans and prepares -- the swift demise of Hosni Mubarak's presidency, along with the virtual disappearance of the ruling National Democratic Party and the potential fall of a regime that has been a pillar of U.S. standing in the Middle East for thirty-five years, is an unimagined challenge.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt

499. Protests in Yemen: President Saleh Promises Change

Author:
Daniel Green
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On February 2, Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has been in power since 1978, declared that he would not press for a constitutional amendment allowing him to seek another term during the next election, currently scheduled for 2013. He also pledged that he would not pass power to his son, Ahmed, head of the country's Republican Guard. His remarks were apparently intended to preempt a "day of rage" in the capital, Sana, scheduled by opposition groups for February 3. In addition to parallels with Tunisia and Egypt, Washington will be watching with great attention given Yemen's reputation as a sanctuary for al-Qaeda and its supporters.
Topic:
Democratization and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, Yemen, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia

500. On the Record

Author:
Mohammed ElBaradei
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
"For years, the West has bought Mr. Mubarak's demonization of the Muslim Brotherhood lock, stock and barrel, the idea that the only alternative here are these demons called the Muslim Brotherhood who are the equivalent of Al Qaeda's... I am pretty sure that any freely and fairly elected government in Egypt will be a moderate one, but America is really pushing Egypt and pushing the whole Arab world into radicalization with this inept policy of supporting repression."
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Israel, Arabia, Egypt, and Vienna