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451. A Note on the Middle Class in Latin America

Author:
Nancy Birdsall
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
The Carbon Monitoring for Action (CARMA) database provides information about the carbon dioxide emissions, electricity production, corporate ownership, and location of more than 60,000 power plants in over 200 countries. Originally launched in 2007, CARMA is provided freely to the public at www.carma.org and remains the only comprehensive data source of its kind. This paper documents the methodology underpinning CARMA v3.0, released in July, 2012. Comparison of CARMA model output with reported data highlights the general difficulty of precisely predicting annual electricity generation for a given plant and year. Estimating the rate at which a plant emits CO2 (per unit of electricity generated) generally faces fewer obstacles. Ultimately, greater disclosure of plant-specific data is needed to overcome these limitations, particularly in major emitting countries like China, Russia, and Japan. For any given plant in CARMA v3.0, it is estimated that the reported value is within 20 percent of the actual value in 85 percent of cases for CO2 intensity, 75 percent for annual CO2 emissions, and 45 percent for annual electricity generation. CARMA's prediction models are shown to offer significantly better estimates than more naïve approaches to estimating plant-specific performance.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Poverty, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, China, America, and Latin America

452. Arab Muslim women after the uprisings: the encounter between the liberalisation of Islamist politics and the feminisation of Islamic interpretation

Author:
Aitemad Muhanna
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Women's participation in the Arab uprisings has been inspired by the expansion of an Islamist-based model of Arab women's activism and a gradual shrinking of secular liberal women's activism. The uprisings have provided outcomes that prove the possibility of combining Islam with democracy through the political success of Islamist parties in the post-uprisings era, like in Tunisia and Egypt. Although this new de facto political map of the region has largely frightened liberal women, the victory of moderate Islamist voices may also be promising, especially when they are in a position to provide a state governance model. The determining factor in combining Islam with democracy is the willingness of the two major players – Islamist parties and the international community – to ensure that the main debatable issues – religion, gender and human rights – are not discriminated against in the name of either religion or Western democracy. However, the actual practice and outcomes of moderate Islamist discourse remains under experimentation, and it is a space for Islamist and secular women's and human rights organisations to co-operate, monitor, negotiate and strategise, to ensure that gender issues are engaged in policy discussions and formulations as a substantial issue for real democratisation.
Topic:
Democratization, Gender Issues, and Islam
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia

453. Thailand: contested politics and democracy

Author:
Naruemon Thabchumpon
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This report assesses the current political situation in Thailand. It first explores the politics of contestation after the 2011 election, upcoming events on the electoral calendar and the 2007 constitutional amendment. It then examines the politics of change in Thailand's political landscape and the effect of political parties' policies on the country's socioeconomic conditions. Thereafter it discusses the country's democratic space and the limited freedom of expression, especially in terms of political issues and the lese-majesty law. Finally, it analyses possible scenarios for democratic change and conflict transformation in terms of the politics of succession.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Thailand

454. The war for Afghanistan

Author:
Ross Eventon
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
At its core, the U.S.-led occupation of Afghanistan is an attempt to establish a client regime supported by a military operation to pacify resistance. In May 2012, the Obama administration took a major step towards consolidating its war aims and signed the Enduring Partnership Agreement with President Karzai, which ensures a U.S. military presence for at least a decade after 2014. It is clear from this agreement, the previous memorandums on detention and night raids, and the continuing development of U.S. mega-bases in the country that 2014 is far from a “withdrawal” date.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

455. Hamas's leadership struggle and the prospects for Palestinian reconciliation

Author:
Nicolas Pelham
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
When the West Bank and Gaza first split between two rival Palestinian governments in 2007, Western governments promised to turn the West Bank under President Mahmoud Abbas, their Fatah protégé, into a model state and reduce Gaza under its Islamist rulers, Hamas, to a pariah. Almost five years on, the tables have turned. While the West Bank slips into economic and political crisis, Gaza is fast reviving. Abbas finds himself bereft of a political horizon for achieving a two-state settlement and the state-building experiment of his prime minister, Salam Fayyad, has reached an impasse. Gaza's economy, by contrast, has grown strongly under Prime Minister Ismail Haniya, who is experiencing a wave of increasing popularity, as Hamas looks to tie the enclave ever more closely to the political economies of North Africa, where the Arab awakening is bringing affiliated Islamist movements to power. A recent agreement signed in the Qatari capital, Doha, between Abbas and Hamas's exiled leader, Khalid Meshal, is intended to heal the split between Palestine's two halves. Under the agreement, the separate governments governing Gaza and the West Bank would be replaced by a single technocratic government under Abbas, which is a radical about-turn on the part of the exiled Hamas leadership that Hamas politicians in Gaza find difficult to swallow. For its own reasons, Israel too rejects the agreement. With so many previous attempts at intra-Palestinian reconciliation ending in failure and so many obstacles dogging this latest round, the prospects for the Doha agreement remain bleak, but not beyond the realm of the possible.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Islam, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, and Governance
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, and North Africa

456. President Martelly – call on Haiti's youth!

Author:
Henriette Lunde
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Half a year has passed since Michel Martelly was inaugurated as the new president of Haiti, and so far the earthquake-devastated country has seen little progress from his presidency. The reconstruction process is slow, and frustration and disgruntlement are growing among the population. Important time was wasted during the five months it took to appoint a new prime minister and put a new government in place. Martelly's mandate was largely given to him by the country's youth, who have high expectations of him. Integrating youth into the reconstruction process is important for reasons of political stability, but young people also represent the country's most important resource per se by constituting a large and – relative to their parents – better-educated part of the workforce. To battle the image of Haiti as a weak state in a land of strong NGOs, the Haitian state needs to assert itself and take on the responsibility of providing services to its citizens. Recruiting young people on a large scale for public sector employment in basic service provision and establishing a national youth civic service corps would strengthen the position of the state and let youth participate in the reconstruction process in a meaningful way. However, a civic service corps would demand high levels of co-ordination and transparency to avoid becoming an empty institution reinforcing patrimonial structures. The youth who brought Martelly to power represent a great potential asset for the country and need to be given the place in the reconstruction process that they have been promised.
Topic:
Democratization, Natural Disasters, Fragile/Failed State, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:
Caribbean and Haiti

457. Political Change in the Middle East: An Attempt to Analyze the "Arab Spring"

Author:
Martin Beck and Simone Hüser
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This article deals with the Arab Spring as a process of deep political change in the Arab world, previously the only major world area where authoritarianism persisted unchallenged for decades. While in various countries of the Arab world mass protests in 2011 forced rulers to resign, other authoritarian regimes have – despite political and economic pressure – so far been able to remain in power, or have even been only insignificantly affected. This paper applies central social science approaches in order to analyze recent developments in the region – a major task of theoretically oriented social sciences in the coming years. In addition to providing an overview of the existing literature on the Arab Spring, the article examines the empirical results of political diversification in the Arab world. A two ‐ by ‐ two matrix of political rule that differentiates according to the type of rule and the degree of stability is presented and discussed. Although the analysis draws heavily on rent theory, it also applies findings from transition theory and revolution theory to illuminate the current political dynamics in the Middle East.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, Governance, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

458. Origins and Outcomes of Electoral Institutions in African Hybrid Regimes: A Comparative Perspective

Author:
Sebastian Elischer, Gero Erdmann, and Alexander Stroh
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
In the early 1990s most African countries carried out extensive reforms of their electoral regimes. Adopting a historical institutionalist approach, this paper critically examines the role of institutional path dependence in accounting for the setup of six African electoral regimes. For this purpose, we distinguish between different types of path dependence. The paper further analyzes the extent to which the development of electoral institutions contributed to the regime-type outcome (democratic/hybrid/autocratic). The main emphasis herein is on so-hybrid regimes;” in other words, regimes existing in the grey zone between democracy and autocracy. The paper finds that, while institutional path dependence has a limited but important impact on the setup of the electoral regimes, it is ultimately the process of decision-making during critical junctures that accounts for the regime type outcome. Hybrid regimes lack long-term institutional ownership.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Human Rights, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa

459. Freedom and Reform at Egypt's Universities

Author:
Ursula Lindsey
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Underfunded, understaffed, and suffering from opaque governance and political repression, the public higher education system that Egypt's new civilian government inherited from the Mubarak era is deeply flawed. Yet change in this area has stopped far short of a revolution.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Education, Regime Change, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:
Arabia and Egypt

460. Religious Education and Pluralism in Egypt and Tunisia

Author:
Muhammad Faour
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Religion occupies a prominent position in the education systems of all Arab countries. With the rise of Islamists across the Arab world, especially in Egypt and Tunisia, there is a possibility that the new parties in power will update education curricula to reflect conservative Islamic beliefs.
Topic:
Democratization, Education, Islam, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia