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281. Iran: a revolutionary republic in transition

Author:
Rouzbeh Parsi (ed)
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
This Chaillot Paper examines recent domestic developments in the Islamic Republic of Iran. It presents an in-depth assessment of the profound changes that the Iranian state and Iranian society have undergone in the past three decades, with a particular focus on the last tumultuous five years. In its exploration of this theme it not only shows the growing rift between the official discourse and self-image of the ruling elite and the society they govern, but also highlights the fact that external observers have many misperceptions about Iran.
Topic:
Democratization, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, Political Economy, Governance, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

282. The Catholic Church, Elections and Democracy In Colombia, 1830–1930

Author:
Eduardo Posada-Carbó
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
By focusing on its electoral role, this paper revises some of the prevailing views regarding the Catholic Church's impact on the politics of Colombia between 1830 and 1930. To this aim, the paper offers a brief general overview of the Church during the period, in an attempt to locate its sources of power. Then, I look at the place the religious cleavage had in the formation of the party system that emerged in the republic by the mid-nineteenth century. Next, I examine the various ways in which the Church was involved in the electoral process both before and after the emergence of the party system. Finally, the concluding section considers the wider implications that such involvement might have represented for the history of democracy in Colombia. Overall, the paper addresses the following questions: What had the historical role of the Catholic Church been in the politics of Colombia since independence? How did the Church—the hierarchy, the clergy and the laity—relate to the electoral history and partisan divisions of the country? And to what extent did the involvement of the Church in electioneering enhance or hinder the process of democratization over this century?
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Colombia and Latin America

283. Elections in Latin America 2009–2011: A Comparative Analysis

Author:
Manuel Alcántara
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper addresses from a comparative perspective the national elections (legislative and presidential) held between 2009 and 2011 in seventeen Latin American countries. There are five key issues that guide this analysis: the institutional conditions of electoral competition, the electoral offer, election results, party systems, and post-electoral executive-legislative relations. The political consequences of these electoral processes—except perhaps in the cases of Honduras and Nicaragua, where some minor negative trends have arisen—reveal a pattern of apparent normality and political alternation, with a change in the presidential elite and winning proposals that were articulated via institutions. The paper concludes by outlining how countries in the region have successfully overcome challenges of a varying nature and importance, that until recently generated a degree of uncertainty in their respective political systems.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Development, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Latin America, Nicaragua, and Honduras

284. Networked Justice: Judges, the Diffusion of Ideas, and Legal Reform Movements in Mexico

Author:
Matthew C. Ingram
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Existing research shows that the ideas of judges matter for judicial behavior both on the bench (decision making) and off the bench (lobbying and mobilization for institutional change). Yet there is little empirical evidence regarding the content and distribution of these ideas and even less evidence and fewer theoretical propositions regarding the manner in which ideas transfer or diffuse among judges. Addressing these empirical and theoretical gaps, I survey judges in the Mexican state of Michoacán and apply techniques of network analysis. The project makes four main contributions: (1) original data on the attitudes of judges regarding prominent institutional and jurisprudential changes shaping the legal landscape in Mexico; (2) egocentric data on network structure for the sampled judges; (3) sociocentric data on network structure at the level of judicial district, state supreme court, and entire state generated by aggregating the egocentric data; and (4) a mixed-methods analysis of the causal relationship between network features and judicial attitudes, drawing on egocentric methods, sociocentric methods, and personal interviews with focal individuals. Complementing literatures on political socialization, policy diffusion, and complex systems, the analysis clarifies our understanding of the role of judicial networks in strengthening democracy and the rule of law.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Development, Political Economy, Governance, Law Enforcement, and Law
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

285. The Islamic World in the New Century

Author:
Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:
Presented by His Excellency Professor Ekmeleddin IhsanogluSecretary General of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation Co-sponsored by Columbia Global Centers.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Democratization, Development, Islam, and Governance
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

286. Challenges of Transformation in a Fragile State: The Case of Liberia

Author:
Ellen Johnson Sirleaf
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:
Presented by Her Excellency Madam Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, President of the Republic of Liberia
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and Liberia

287. Pakistan: No End to Humanitarian Crises

Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With three years of devastating floods putting the lives and livelihoods of at least four million citizens at risk, and military operations against militants displacing thousands more in the conflict zones of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), Pakistan's humanitarian crises need urgent do-mestic and international attention. Since the democratic transition began in 2008, some progress has been made, but much more is needed to build the federal and provin-cial governments' disaster and early recovery response. Efforts to enhance civilian ownership and control have also had mixed results, particularly in the conflict zones, where the military remains the dominant actor. To effectively confront the challenges, the most urgent tasks remain to strengthen the civilian government's capacity to plan for and cope with humanitarian crises and to prioritise social sector and public infrastructure development. It is equally important that all assistance and support be non-discrimi-natory and accompanied by credible mechanisms for citi-zens to hold public officials accountable.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Disaster Relief, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

288. The electoral trap: Why the EU should think beyond Belarus's parliamentary election

Author:
Anaïs Marin
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
One should not expect the 23 September election to comply with democratic standards. The current legislation in Belarus does not guarantee a free and fair process. The institutional setting prevents a transparent vote count and the election of opposition candidates. Yet, in sending a full-fledged observation mission to Belarus, the OSCE again appears to be giving official Minsk the benefit of the doubt. Breaking the vicious circle of external regime legitimation would require consistency and restraint in giving this periodic electoral farce any credence whatsoever. Imitating procedural democracy brings regime consolidation for Lukashenka: enticing the opposition forces – and their Western supporters for that matter – into the electoral trap is a preemptive scheme to disqualify them. Decapitated, divided, distrusted, the opposition is incapable of carrying out regime change. The regime's repressive build-up also dissuades Belarusians from mobilising to contest the predictable fraud – for now. They are nonetheless expressing increasing demands for independent election monitoring. In view of the 2015 presidential elections, the EU should invest more in the capacity-building and training of civil society actors, notably domestic election observers. Turning voters into reliable rule of law watchdogs could raise awareness in, and demand for democracy in Belarus.
Topic:
Civil Society, Corruption, and Democratization
Political Geography:
Europe and Belarus

289. Burundi: Bye-bye Arusha?

Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
En dépit du fonctionnement régulier des institutions et du discours officiel vantant les progrès en matière de déve- loppement et de sécurité, le Burundi est en train de perdre les acquis de l'accord d'Arusha. En raison de l'impasse électorale de 2010, le système de partage du pouvoir conçu à Arusha a fait place à un monopartisme de fait qui se traduit par la fin du dialogu e entre l'opposition et le gouvernement, une dérive autorita ire et le retour de la vio- lence politique. Le respect de la minorité politique et de la règle de droit, essentiel à la démocratie, semble ignoré depuis 2010. Afin de pérenniser les acquis du processus de paix et la stabilité du pays, la classe politique burundaise doit renouer avec le dialogue, ga rantir le pluralisme poli- tique en vue des échéances électorales de 2015 et veiller à un processus de justice trans itionnelle consensuel. En rai- son de leur implication dans le processus de paix, l'importance de leur aide au Burundi et l'absence de bailleurs alternatifs, les partenaires internationaux actuels doivent mettre ces trois questions au centre de leur dialogue avec le gouvernement.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Corruption, Democratization, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa

290. Country Economic Forecasts: Czech Republic

Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
GDP fell by a larger than expected 1% on the quarter in 2012Q1 according to initial data released in mid-May. As a result, we now expect GDP will fall 1.1% in 2012. On the political side, the government has avoided a snap election by surviving a confidence vote on 27 April. However, it will find it harder to stick to its austerity plans as its majority was weakened by the vote. Under current policies, we now expect the fiscal deficit to rise to 3.6% of GDP in 2012 from 3.1% in 2011 due to the weakness of the economy.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Czech Republic