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281. Pakistan's 2013 elections: what implications for exclusion and fragility?

Author:
Clare Castillejo
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Pakistan's election result was a vote for the status quo and has clearly maintained power in the hands of the country's political elite. However, analysis of the election process and outcome does indicate some shifts in the deeply entrenched patterns of political, social and economic exclusion that fuel Pakistan's fragility. On the negative side these include increased splits among the provinces and a more dominant Punjab, as well as greater threats to minorities and secular voices. However, some positive trends also emerge. These include a possible increase in political appetite for economic reform and development investment; growing political confidence among Pakistan's women; and the political engagement of the urban youth and middle-class populations with an interest in changing Pakistan's corrupt political system. As the international community begins to engage with Nawaz Sharif's new government it must recognise the importance of addressing exclusion as a major cause of Pakistan's instability. In particular, it must seek new entry points in the post-election environment to support the emergence of a more inclusive political settlement in Pakistan.
Topic:
Corruption, Democratization, Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Gender Issues, and Islam
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

282. Tunisia after Ben Ali: retooling the tools of oppression?

Author:
Derek Lutterbeck
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Tunisia under Ben Ali was a police state par excellence and reforming the country's internal security apparatus has thus been one of the major challenges since the long-standing autocrat's fall. This policy brief examines the various efforts to reform Tunisia's internal security system in the post-Ben Ali period and the challenges this process faces. It argues that reforms in this area have been limited so far, focusing mainly on purges rather than on broader structural or institutional reform of the country's police force. Moreover, not only have human rights violations committed by the police – despite important improvements – continued on a significant scale, but there are also concerns that the police will once again be instrumentalised for political purposes, this time by the Ennahda-led government. Indications to this effect have included in particular the seeming complacency of the police vis-à-vis the growth in religiously inspired violence. The recent killing of opposition leader Chokri Belaid in the first political assassination in Tunisia since Ben Ali's fall has further underscored the need to reform the country's internal security system.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Human Rights, Regime Change, Governance, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:
Arabia and North Africa

283. Can Democracy Take Root in Georgia?

Author:
Ivane Chkhikvadze
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
Seven months after a genuinely contested election led to a historic change of government in Georgia, the situation remains precarious. The new “cohabitation” between the Georgian Dream coalition led by Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili in a strengthened parliament and President Mikheil Saakahsvili has weathered constitutional reform but is far from stable. Recent arrests of former high-ranking officials have raised questions. The new government faces the challenge of meeting public demand for accountability for the previous government’s abuse of power while delivering an ambitious legislative reform agenda. Greater openness to civil society and its pro-reform agenda has impressed many impartial observers, but domestic impatience for socio-economic improvement and job creation is growing. This latest policy brief addresses the challenges in Georgia and for the ruling coalition, and argues that reforms aimed at an independent judiciary and effective criminal justice system should take precedence over restorative justice. It also advocates a constructive approach by government and opposition in enacting lasting reforms to state institutions to ensure that they are neutral and not fused with the ruling party. Although it needs to improve communication with international audiences, the government should place less importance on image-making abroad, but rather more time listening to citizens and delivering on reforms. Finally, in the run-up to the presidential elections in October and the Vilnius Summit in November, EU member states, parliamentarians, and officials should desist from taking sides based on partisan allegiances and judge Georgia on the implementation of its commitments.
Topic:
Democratization, Elections, Constitution, Illiberal Democracy, and Political Rights
Political Geography:
Georgia

284. Chile's 2013 Presidential Elections: Explanations and Predictions

Author:
Carl Meacham and Robert Funk
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
In the first round of Chile's presidential elections on November 17, Michelle Bachelet, of the progressive New Majority (Nueva Mayoría) coalition, commanded a resounding lead. Garnering 46.7 percent of the popular vote—and putting her 20 points ahead of Alliance for Chile (Alianza por Chile) candidate Evelyn Matthei, her nearest rival—the former president is the likely victor in the runoff elections scheduled for December 15.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Latin America

285. The Dominican Republic: Becoming a One-Party State?

Author:
Carl Meacham
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Is democracy in danger in the Dominican Republic? Is the country headed toward sustained one-party rule? In an effort to understand the state of Dominican democracy and rule of law, CSIS Americas Program director Carl Meacham led a six-month initiative to answer these questions. This report, which details the project's findings, pays particular attention to alleged growing levels of corruption within the government and the independence—and effectiveness—of the country's judiciary, as well as implications for the Dominican Republic's relations with the United States.
Topic:
Corruption and Democratization
Political Geography:
United States and Caribbean

286. 'WE ARE GAÚCHOS, WE ARE GAÚCHAS...' INCITEMENTS TO GENDERED AND REGIONAL SUBJECTIVITY IN THE 2002 BRAZILIAN ELECTION CAMPAIGNS

Author:
Benjamin Junge
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper analyzes Brazil's 2002 presidential and gubernatorial election-campaign discourse, identifying recurrent themes and modes of appeal within campaign discourses. In an introductory section, the conceptual and methodological framework is mapped out, drawing from "anthropology of politics" and media studies scholarship. In this context, a framework for analyzing campaign rhetoric's appeals to a gendered subject and a regional (gaucho) subject is presented. Historical background is provided for the political context and stakes of the 2002 elections, followed by an overview the different types of media used in the campaigns. The analysis proper examines the rhetoric of the presidential campaigns (principally that of leftist Workers Party candidate Luiz In á cio "Lula" da Silva), followed by analysis of the Rio Grande do Sul gubernatorial campaigns. In the concluding section, the argument is presented that the citizen-subject implicit in the official discourses of the Lula campaign is individualist for its concern over everyday-life struggles, nationalist for its concern over the country's well-being, and universalist for its concern with moral justice. For the gubernatorial campaigns, discursive appeal is constructed with heavy recourse to the "timeless tradition" of authentic (and symbolically masculine) gauchismo.
Topic:
Democratization, Political Economy, Mass Media, and Governance
Political Geography:
Brazil and Latin America

287. Reforming Arab security sectors

Author:
Florence Gaub
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
In 2011, Arab security forces, long suspected to be inextricably linked to their respective regimes, once again became decisive political agents in their own right: agents of change, agents of repression and, in some cases, both. Their facilitation or suppression of democratic transitions has sparked a long-overdue debate on security sector reform in the Arab world. What are the main features of security sectors in the region? What are the main obstacles to reform? And why is this debate taking place only now?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Arabia

288. Towards The Syrian Nightmare? The Critical Situation in Syria and Possible Scenarios

Author:
Ali Hussein Bakeer
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Strategic Research Organization (USAK)
Abstract:
This report seeks to evaluate the current situation of Syria through a carefully considered analysis. It aims to navigate safely through at times a conflicting myriad of information disseminated on the media and the Internet and make a projection about the future of the Syrian state as well as describing the various scenarios that may result.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

289. Honduras under siege

Author:
Roger F. Noriega and José Javier Lanza
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
As stepped-up counternarcotics policies in Colombia and Mexico have increased pressure on regional drug trafficking networks, organized crime syndicates have relocated operations to Central America, where law enforcement agencies and institutions are ill-equipped to withstand the onslaught. These multibillion-dollar gangs are making common cause with some local politicians who are following a playbook honed by Hugo Chávez in Venezuela. The result in Venezuela was the birth of a narcostate, and similar dramas are playing out in Central America. Like Chávez, caudillos are using the democratic process to seek power, weaken institutions, and undermine the rule of law—generating turmoil that accommodates narcotrafficking. Making matters worse for Honduras is that left-wing activists abroad, in support of ousted president and Chávez acolyte Manuel Zelaya, are waging a very public campaign of outlandish claims seeking to block any US assistance to help the Honduran government resist the drug cartels. It is imperative that US policymakers vigorously support democracy, the rule of law, and antidrug programs in Honduras.
Topic:
Corruption, Crime, Democratization, War on Drugs, Narcotics Trafficking, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
America, Latin America, and Mexico

290. Civil Society Engagement with Political Parties During Elections: Lessons from Ghana and Sierra Leone

Author:
Francis Kwakye Oppong, Franklin Oduro, Mohammed Awal, and Emmanuel Debrah
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Oxfam commissioned the Ghana Centre for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana) to conduct a study into how civil society organizations (CSOs) can effectively engage with and/or influence political parties during election campaigns. The fundamental question underlying the study was: "What conditions and contexts facilitate the most effective mechanisms to advance long-term success by CSOs in influencing the political commitments and programmes of political parties during election campaigns?? The study aimed to contribute vital knowledge on this subject, about which there was very little pre-existing documentation, particularly concerning West Africa. The study was based on CSOs? experiences from the 2012 elections in Ghana and Sierra Leone.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Development, and Mass Media
Political Geography:
West Africa, Sierra Leone, and Ghana