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151. Egypt's Media in the Midst of Revolution

Author:
Rasha Abdulla
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
More than three years after the January 25 revolution toppled then Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, Egypt continues to struggle with an authoritarian media sector and constraints on freedom of expression. Postrevolution regimes have not capitalized on opportunities to reform state and private media, and critical voices have been harassed and marginalized by state and nonstate actors. As long as Egypt continues to be governed by rulers who believe controlling the media is in their best interest, reform will only come about through the few dissident voices in the media backed up by support from civil society and the masses.
Topic:
Democratization, Communications, and Social Movement
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

152. Exploring Uzbekistan's Potential Political Transition

Author:
Alexey Malashenko
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Islam Karimov has essentially been in power in Uzbekistan since 1989. Rumors abound that Karimov will not take part in the country's next presidential election in 2015, but it seems likely that he will participate. If he does, he is guaranteed to win. Though it is still too early to talk about the chances specific candidates have of replacing Karimov, it is important to look closely at the current ruling elite and the president's possible successors to see where the country might be heading.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, Regime Change, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:
Uzbekistan

153. In India, Election Season Is Never Over

Author:
Richard M. Rossow
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) historic victory in the spring 2014 Lok Sabha1 election was a tremendous accomplishment—yet it still leaves the party with impartial control, at best. Weakness in the Rajya Sabha, where the BJP only holds 43 out of 243 seats, may limit the party's ability to enact legislative reforms. And the fact that the BJP only controls 5 of India's 29 states will also blunt the impact of any policy measures adopted at the center. In order to enact a true economic transformation, the BJP will either need the support of a wide range of unaligned parties—which would be a historical abnormality—or to consolidate its power at the state level by winning upcoming state elections. With the BJP's powerful show of force across India in the Lok Sabha election, winning state elections appears to be a viable path.
Topic:
Democratization, Regime Change, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
India and Southeast Asia

154. Not Just in Transit: Drugs, the State and Society in West Africa

Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
This report examines the increase in drug trafficking and consumption in West Africa and their impact on the state and on society. It concludes with recommendations on how the region can respond humanely, effectively and preemptively to these problems.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, War on Drugs, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:
Africa

155. Southeast Asia's Regression From Democracy and Its Implications

Author:
Joshua Kurlantzick
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Between the late 1980s and the late 2000s, many countries in Southeast Asia were viewed, by global democracy analysts and Southeast Asians themselves, as leading examples of democratization in the developing world. By the late 2000s, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Singapore all were ranked as "free" or "partly free" by the monitoring organization Freedom House, while Cambodia and, perhaps most surprisingly, Myanmar had both taken sizable steps toward democracy as well. Yet since the late 2000s, Southeast Asia's democratization has stalled and, in some of the region's most economically and strategically important nations, gone into reverse. Over the past ten years, Thailand has undergone a rapid and severe regression from democracy and is now ruled by a junta. Malaysia's democratic institutions and culture have regressed as well, with the long-ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition cracking down on dissent and trying to destroy what had been an emerging, and increasingly stable, two-party system. Singapore's transition toward contested politics has stalled. In Cambodia and Myanmar, hopes for dramatic democratic change have fizzled. Only the Philippines and Indonesia have stayed on track, but even in these two countries democratic consolidation is threatened by the persistence of graft, public distrust of democratic institutions, and continued meddling in politics by militaries.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

156. Afghanistan Reconnected: Regional Economic Security Beyond 2014

Author:
Sarah Stern and Anna Mitri
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
With the end of the ISAF mandate, Afghanistan will enter the "de-cade of transformation" in late 2014, and assume security for and within the country. The challenges with regard to security and governance are obvious; they attract much political and public attention.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Asia

157. Linking Domestic and European Politics: Finnish MEPs and the Votes that Shaped the 7th European Parliament

Author:
Tuomas Iso-Markku
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
It has long been acknowledged that the members of the European Parliament (MEPs) act in a complex political setting. They represent national parties and are elected nationally, and their campaigns are often built around domestic issues. However, in the European Parliament (EP), the MEPs mostly work within transnational party groups, which form the main channel through which they can influence European decision-making. Although most national parties have affiliated themselves to party groups with similar ideological leanings, the views of the MEPs' national parties and their European party groups do not always overlap. In such situations, the MEPs are forced to choose between their different 'principals'. This raises several questions: Who do the MEPs ultimately represent? To what degree do domestic political factors and national concerns condition their behaviour in the EP? And to what extent do the political cleavages in the EP reflect the conflict lines in national politics?
Topic:
Democratization and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Finland

158. A Democratic Rentier State? Taxation, Aid Dependency, and Political Representation in Benin

Author:
Giulia Piccolino
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Drawing on the history of statebuilding in Western Europe, fiscal sociology has proposed the existence of a mutually reinforcing effect between the emergence of representative government and effective taxation. This paper looks at the case of Benin, a low-income West African country that underwent a fairly successful democratization process in the early 1990s. It finds, in contrast to previous studies that have emphasized dependency on aid rents, that Benin appears to have reinforced its extractive capacities since democratization. However, the effect of democratization has been largely indirect, while other factors, such as the influence of the International Financial Institutions (IFIs) and the size of the country's informal sector, have played a more direct role in encouraging or inhibiting tax extraction. Nevertheless, the hypothesis that effective taxation depends on a quasiconsensual relationship between government and taxpayers finds some confirmation in the Beninese case.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Europe and West Africa

159. Governance Transfer by the Southern African Development Community (SADC)

Author:
Anna van der Vleuten and Merran Hulse
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Collaborative Research Center (SFB) 700
Abstract:
As early as 1992, the Treaty of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) already included a commitment to human rights, democracy, and the rule of law as governance standards in its member states, but it was in 2001 that SADC significantly broadened its efforts at governance transfer. SADC focuses in particular on standards related to gender, (socioeconomic) human rights, and (electoral) democracy, which are promoted and protected through various instruments including military interventions and sanctions in the framework of security cooperation. While the rule of law and good governance have also gained a more prominent place on the agenda since 2001, standards and instruments are less developed. Overall, there is a significant gap between the prescription of standards and policies on the one hand and the implementation of measures on the other. The suspension of the SADC Tribunal in 2010 following its rulings on human rights issues clearly shows the limits of SADC as an active promoter vis-à-visits member states.
Topic:
Democratization, Gender Issues, Human Rights, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

160. TSG IntelBrief: The Umbrella Revolution: Students Protest in Hong Kong

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
The student-led, pro-democracy 'Umbrella Revolution' currently underway in Hong Kong is the most significant uprising within the sphere of the People's Republic of China since the Tiananmen Square demonstrations in 1989 Angered by Beijing's restrictions to candidate choices for the upcoming 2017 election, Hong Kong's citizens are massing by the thousands to protest As the pro-democracy protests grow, the government's reaction threatens to becomes more aggressive, possibly bringing the situation to a tipping point reminiscent of Tiananmen Square The Chinese government believes it can't afford to back down-with a wariness influenced by events in Ukraine and the 'Arab Spring'-but it also can't afford another massacre; the world is watching and plays a much larger role in the Chinese economy than it did in 1989.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Democratization, Human Rights, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
East Asia and Hong Kong