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1232. Liberalization Versus Democracy: Understanding Arab Political Reform
- Author:
- Daniel Brumberg
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- No American administration has talked more about democracy in the Middle East than the Bush administration. The president and his advisors have spoken optimistically about a post-Saddam democracy in Iraq, one that might eventually become a veritable light to other Arab nations. This grand vision assumes that sooner or later, advocates of democracy throughout the Middle East will demand the same freedoms and rights that Iraqis are now claiming. Yet, however inspiring this vision appears, the actual reform plan that the administration has thus far set out is unlikely to produce radical changes in the Arab world. Regardless of how dramatic the change in Baghdad is, when it comes to our friends in Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, and Yemen, the administration's reform plan points to evolution rather than revolution.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Government
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, America, Middle East, Arabia, Arab Countries, and Egypt
1233. Promoting Democracy in the Middle East: The Problem of U.S. Credibility
- Author:
- Marina Ottaway
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Since early last year, the Bush administration has paid unaccustomed attention to the issue of democracy in the Middle East. Following September 11, many U. S. officials have worried that the authoritarianism of most Arab regimes has bred frustration in their countries, and this frustration has in turn favored the growth of terrorist organizations. U.S. discussions about the need for democracy in the Middle East have triggered a strong negative reaction by Arab commentators and journalists, including in discussions of democracy in the Arab press. However, very little of this writing has dealt with the problem of democracy in the real sense—that is, with the issue of how Arab governments relate to their citizens now and how they should relate to their citizens in the future. Instead, Arab commentators have treated democracy as a foreign policy issue, asking why the United States is suddenly discussing democracy in the Arab world and what true intentions it is trying to hide behind the smoke screen of democracy talk. The debate in the Arab press reveals some of the obstacles that the United States faces as it attempts to define its new pro-democracy role in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arabia
1234. Promoting the Rule of Law Abroad: The Problem of Knowledge
- Author:
- Thomas Carothers
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Although the current rule-of-law promotion field is still expanding as it approaches the end of its second decade, it still faces a lack of knowledge at many levels of conception, operation, and evaluation. There is a surprising amount of uncertainty, for example, about the twin rationales of rule-of-law promotion—that promoting the rule of law will contribute to economic development and democratization. There is also uncertainty about what the essence of the rule of law actually is—whether it primarily resides in certain institutional configurations or in more diffuse normative structures. Rule-of-law promoters are also short of knowledge about how the rule of law develops in societies and how such development can be stimulated beyond simplistic efforts to copy institutional forms. And the question of what kinds of larger societal effects will result from specific changes in rule-of-law institutions is also still open. Although aid institutions engaged in rule-of-law assistance do attempt some—lessons learned—exercises, many of the lessons produced are superficial and even those are often not really learned. Several substantial obstacles to greater knowledge accumulation in this field persist, including the complexity of the task of promoting the rule of law, the particularity of legal systems, the unwillingness of aid organizations to invest sufficient resources in evaluations, and the tendency of both academics and lawyers not to pursue systematic empirical research on rule-of-law aid programs. Whether rule-of-law aid is on the path to becoming a well-grounded field of international assistance remains uncertain.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
1235. Iraq: What Next?
- Author:
- George Perkovich, Joseph Cirincione, and Jessica T. Mathews
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- American televisions are filled with war rooms, countdowns, deadlines, and showdowns with Iraq. The almost minute by minute coverage distorts public understanding of how inspections work and creates a false sense of the inevitability of war. No decision has in fact been made. Within the administration some indeed intend the buildup as the prelude to war while for others it presents the credible threat of war that is necessary to compel Iraq's disarmament through inspections.
- Topic:
- Democratization
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, America, and Middle East
1236. Local Governments and the Chinese Stock Market
- Author:
- Mary Comerford Cooper
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- This paper examines a key aspect of the politics of stock markets in China—the distinct differences in interests between central government leaders and local governments. Central government leaders have a powerful incentive to promote macroeconomic stability and good performance of the stock market. Local leaders, for their part, are less concerned with the overall performance of the stock market than with gaining access to the stock market for companies under their own jurisdiction. The paper demonstrates that company listing brings tangible economic benefits to municipalities. Listed companies are associated with higher levels of gross domestic product (GDP), budgetary revenue, and industrial and commercial tax revenue. Therefore, it is not surprising that local officials put substantial effort into lobbying for the right to list additional companies on the national stock exchanges.
- Topic:
- Communism, Democratization, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
1237. International Organizations and Democratization: Testing the Effect of GATT/WTO Membership
- Author:
- Mary Comerford Cooper
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Does the World Trade Organization promote democracy? A large part of the heated and protracted debate over China's application for WTO membership revolved around this question. Prior to China's WTO accession in December 2001, this debate had dragged on for nearly fifteen years. While one side argued that WTO membership would promote democratization in China, others argued that the wealth generated through economic integration would provide the resources to maintain authoritarian rule. Only time will tell whether WTO accession will contribute to pressures for democratization in China. In the meantime, however, this paper examines the empirical basis for these competing claims about the effects of GATT/WTO memberships on domestic political systems. Based on statistical analysis of a global data set, this paper concludes that members of the international trade regime are more likely than nonmembers to be democracies. However, there is little evidence that WTO membership in itself can promote democratic transition. Instead, it appears to be the case that democratic countries are more likely to seek to join the WTO.
- Topic:
- Communism, Democratization, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
1238. Burma: A Time for Change
- Author:
- Mathea Falco
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- On May 30, 2003, the Burmese military regime orchestrated violent attacks by pro-government militia on Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the National League for Democracy (NLD) and her supporters as they traveled outside Mandalay. At least four of her bodyguards were killed as well as a significant number of others. She has been held in custody since then. Following the attacks, the regime arrested more than 100 democracy activists, imprisoned at least a dozen, shut down NLD offices across the country, and closed schools and universities. This is the bloodiest confrontation between Burma's military rulers and democracy supporters since 1988, when the government suppressed a popular uprising against the regime and thousands were killed.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- Burma and Southeast Asia
1239. Crushing Crime in South East Europe: A Struggle of Domestic, Regional and European Dimensions
- Author:
- Frederic Labarre and Predrag Jureković
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Austrian National Defence Academy
- Abstract:
- The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) is not a law enforcement agency. We do not manage informants, undertake surveillance or analyze criminal intelligence but we do coordinate and deliver technical assistance to countries to develop and strengthen these skills. This is our role in the war against drugs. To help us in South Eastern Europe we employ law enforcement officers in the field.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Democratization, Human Rights, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, United Nations, and Balkans
1240. Afghanistan: Seeds of Hope
- Author:
- David Johnson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- In 2000, an overwhelming 97 percent of Afghan girls did not attend school, and today only about 20 percent are literate. Tens of thousands of Afghan girls are now attending school for the first time in years.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Middle East