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1101. What's So Good About Democracy? A Research Note

Author:
William Roberts Clark
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
It is surprisingly difficult to demonstrate that democracy makes a difference where, presumably, it is needed the most. Life remains precarious for large portions of the world's population, and the people for whom survival is far from trivial are concentrated in the world's poorest nations. If, as we seem committed to believe, a) the state can play some positive role in securing the life chances of individuals; and b) democracy increases the likelihood that states will play such a role, then we ought to see tangible benefits from the adoption of democracy in the world's poorest nations. If not, we may be required to accept either of two uncomfortable conclusions. Perhaps democracy has important normative benefits but provides little in terms of material consequences. Alternatively, it may have material benefits, but only in countries where wealth has already made such benefits less vital.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Government, and Politics

1102. Dangerous Doctrine: How New U.S. Nuclear Plans Could Backfire

Author:
Michael M. May and Roger Speed
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
In September 2002, President George W. Bush announced his new National Security Strategy. Although this doctrine retains some elements from the past, in some respects it is a bold departure from previous U.S. policy. It declares that the United States finds itself in a unique position of military and political dominance and that it has a moral duty to use this strength to establish a new liberal democratic world order. The National Security Strategy and Bush's supporting speeches argue that the United States must in effect establish and maintain a global military hegemony to secure its envisioned democratic, peaceful world. According to the strategy, carrying out this mission requires that any challenge to U.S. military dominance must be blocked, by force if necessary. A significant challenge to world stability comes from terrorists and certain states that are seeking weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Concerned that the Cold War doctrines of deterrence and containment may no longer work, and that "if we wait for threats to fully materialize, we will have waited too long," Bush announced in the National Security Strategy a new "preemption doctrine" against such threats. Earlier, in 2001, the Bush administration's Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) addressed the nuclear aspect of the issue. The review recognized the new cooperative relationship with Russia and the rising threat from the potential proliferation of WMD. The latter point was seen as particularly important, since future conflict with a number of regional powers was thought possible--North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Libya all were thought to sponsor or harbor terrorists and to have active WMD and missile programs. The NPR presented a new U.S. strategic military doctrine intended to transform the defense establishment with the creation of a new triad, consisting of offensive strike systems (both nuclear and conventional), defenses (both active and passive), and a revitalized defense infrastructure that will provide new capabilities to meet emerging threats. According to the NPR, the new triad will have four primary missions: to assure, dissuade, deter, and defeat. Bush later added a fifth mission, to preempt, which he characterized as proactive counterproliferation--the use of military force to prevent or reverse proliferation. The "Bush doctrine" called for new nuclear weapons to meet the requirements of these missions. It was argued that smaller nuclear weapons could reduce collateral civilian damage and make U.S. use of nuclear weapons more "credible," therefore deterring hostile nations or even dissuading opponents from acquiring WMD. However, our analysis indicates that low-yield nuclear weapons would likely be militarily effective in only a few cases, and even then the collateral damage could be significant unless the targets were located in isolated areas. Moreover, even if they were militarily effective, they would likely add little or nothing to U.S. deterrent capability, nor be effective at dissuading WMD acquisition. Indeed, the new weapons concepts advanced to date seem to have little to do with deterrence of a nuclear (or other WMD) attack on the United States or its allies. Instead, they appear to be geared toward a warfighting role, which could ultimately undermine rather than enhance U.S. security.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Democratization
Political Geography:
United States

1103. CERI: The Thaksin System: A Halt to Democratization or Democracy the Thai Way?

Author:
Nicolas Revise
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Thaksin Shinawatra, Thailands Prime Minister, is a man of superlatives: the billionaire telecommunications tycoon is the only elected Thai head of government to have managed to get through an entire legislative term before being triumphantly reelected to a second mandate. His party, Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais), rules with an overwhelming majority. Having rose to power in the wake of the 1997 Asian crisis and the promulgation of Thailands democratic Constitution the same year, Thaksin exemplifies the countrys recent history: he is heir to the authoritarian military regimes of the 1960-1970 and the product of a political and economic liberalization that brought businessmen transformed into professional politicians to power. But whether the Thaksin system a blend of authoritarianism and liberalism has put the brakes on twenty-five years of political democratization or if he embodies a Thai way to democracy, the Prime Minister cannot rule to please himself: he is faced with a dynamic, complex and organized civil society that has already proven in at least three different instances its striking talent for political mobilization.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

1104. CERI: Burma: The army closes off political options

Author:
Renaud Egreteau
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
The Burmese junta that came to power in 1962, and reaffirmed its domination by a second military coup d'état in September of 1988, has steadily increased its control over the nation's institutions and over the running of the country (renamed Myanmar in 1989). In August of 2003, the decision taken by General Khin Nyunt, Prime Minister and head of military intelligence, to propose "a road map to democracy" suggested that a gradual "transition to democracy", closely supervised by the military regime, was possible. But the ousting of Khin Nuyunt in October 2004 spelled the return of the regime's hardliners and of the last of the army's nationalist chiefs, adamantly opposed to any negotiations with the democratic civilian opposition led by Aung San Suu, held under house arrest since May 2003. Thus the regime, strengthened by a favorable strategic environment, has a good chance of remaining in power by setting its own rules for "democratic" procedures, its aim being to keep the country stable rather pursuing a process of liberalization. Such a policy will inevitably be detrimental to the interests of the opposition and the ethnic minorities.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, and Politics
Political Geography:
Burma and Southeast Asia

1105. Las bases internas de la política exterior: realidades y retos de la apertura económica y la democracia

Author:
Guadalupe González González
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the links between economic liberalization, democratization and foreign policy using the Mexican experience as a case study. The paper revolves around three major concerns: a) the change in the role and place of foreign policy in the context of an open economy and a democratic regime, compared with the previous period of a closed economy and an authoritarian regime; b) the impact of economic liberalization and democratization on the formulation, agenda and orientation of foreign policy; c) the effects of the new economic, political and social internal configuration on the international position of Mexico and its negotiating capacity vis a vis the world. This work documents an increase in the level of activity and interest shown by numerous social, governmental and bureaucratic actors in foreign policy issues as a consequence of economic openness and democratization of the political regime, which leads towards a greater politization of the issue area. The main argument is that the deficits in economic and social development, democratic consolidation and governability, negatively affect the country's credibility and its negotiating capacity vis a vis the world.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Mexico

1106. La participación en Operaciones de Paz de la ONU y el control civil de las fuerzas armadas: los casos de Argentina y Uruguays

Author:
Arturo C. Sotomayor
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This is a comparative study that explores the impact of participation in United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations on civil-military relations in two democratizing and developing countries; namely, Argentina and Uruguay. I ask for example, why the incorporation of the Argentine military into UN peace operations increased linkages between diplomats and soldiers, while Uruguayan peacekeeping experiences enlarged the gap between politicians and the military? I develop a qualitative measurement to evaluate variations on the effects by focusing on the mode of transition to democracy, the bureaucratic politics of the defense policy-making, and the type of socialization in the field. My research argues that the military is not defined only by domestic variables. This leads to questions in general about the nature of the military as an institution. Not only the doctrine, technology and techniques of the military are influenced by international variables, but also its very raison d'être and place in domestic politics. This is an initial attempt to theorize and elucidate how the peacekeeping policies of transitional and democratizing regimes differ and vary in their effects from the peace contributions of developed and established democracies, such as Canada, Norway, and Sweden.
Topic:
Democratization, Peace Studies, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Canada, Norway, Argentina, South America, Uruguay, and Sweden

1107. La participación uruguaya en las operaciones de paz de la ONU: los beneficios económicos y sus costos políticos

Author:
Arutro C. Sotomayor
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This essay explores the domestic implications of Uruguay's very active participation in United Nations peacekeeping operations. The author argues that involvement of uniformed officers in UN missions has improved military salaries, enabled military procurement and provided extra incentives for military recruitment. However, Uruguay's participation in peace missions has been inconsequential for improving civil-military relations. According to the author, despite the initial advantages that civilian policymakers had to carve out military prerogatives, the absence of civilian expertise on peacekeeping matters has increased the military's policy leverage on defense policies. In this context, the military has institutional autonomy to define peacekeeping policies and rarely consults or informs their superior civilians. Therefore, the Uruguayan case provides a critical example of the potential perverse effects that international peacekeeping participation can have among UN troop-contributing and democratizing countries.
Topic:
Democratization, Peace Studies, and United Nations
Political Geography:
South America and Uruguay

1108. The Consolidation of Democracy vs. the Price of Olive Oil: The Story of Why the CAP Delayed Spain's Entry to the EC

Author:
Lorena Ruano
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
Why did agriculture, a supposedly 'low politics' issue area, become so salient in the accession negotiations between Spain and the EC? Why did it manage to obscure the 'high politics' motives of regional stability and democratic consolidation?
Topic:
International Relations, Agriculture, Democratization, and Politics
Political Geography:
Spain

1109. Local Elections and Democracy in Indonesia: The Case of the Riau Archipelago

Author:
Nankyung Choi
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
In this essay, I examine the dynamics and outcomes of Indonesia's first ever direct local executive elections in a case study of the gubernatorial election in the Riau Archipelago. Specifically, I examine the election processes, identify the major issues before, during, and after the elections, and assess voters' participation. I then examine the ways direct local executive elections have affected the dynamics of local politics in the country. Overall, this essay aims to further develop our understanding of political dynamics in the Riau Archipelago and grasp the practical significance of local political change in Indonesia more broadly.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

1110. The EU in Moldova - settling conflicts in the neighbourhood

Author:
Nicu Popescu
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
A key objective of the European Union is to have a stable, secure, prosperous and democratic neighbourhood. Failing an offer of accession to close neighbours in the medium term, the EU should and can offer stronger CFSP engagement. Contributing to conflict resolution in the neighbourhood is key to the achievement of EU objectives. However, the conflict resolution dimension of the ENP is under-developed. It is time for the EU to focus on the conflicts in its immediate neighbourhood. Promoting the security aspect of ENP can start with the Transnistrian conflict in Moldova. This conflict is the closest geographically to the EU; at the same time, it is the most 'solvable.' The conflict features high on the agenda of EU-Russia and EU-Ukraine relations. A settlement of the conflict in Transnistria would attenuate the soft security challenges the EU faces on its eastern border. Settlement would also assuage an irritant in EU-Russia relations, and set a positive precedent in building the EU-Russia common space for external security. It would also be an example of positive cooperation with Ukraine under ENP. The focus of EU policy should be to alter the context in which the conflict is situated and sustained, rather than hoping for an early agreement on the status of Transnistria. The primary objective should be to increase Moldova's 'attractiveness' while decreasing the benefits of maintaining the current status quo. The Transnistrian separatist project is to a large degree based on false economic arguments for independence. Undermining these claims will be central to efforts to reunify the country. The EU has already appointed an EU Special Representative for Moldova and is expected to launch an EU Border Assistance Mission to Moldova and Ukraine that would monitor the border between the two countries, including the section controlled by the secessionist authorities of Transnistria. EU border monitoring is necessary, but is not a sustainable long-term solution. The EU should help Moldova strengthen its own capacity to control the Transnistrian section of the border by launching an EU Police Mission to Moldova. Building a sustainable context for the resolution of the conflict in Transnistria can be achieved through greater support to Moldova's Europeanisation and implementation of the ENP Action Plan, more active support to democracy inside Transnistria and greater engagement with Ukraine under CFSP.
Topic:
Security and Democratization
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Moldova