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1071. Securing Congo's Elections: Lessons from the Kinshasa Showdown

Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Hours before the first-round results of the Democratic Republic of the Congo's presidential elections were to be announced in Kinshasa on 20 August 2006, violence erupted between troops loyal to Vice President Jean- Pierre Bemba and those loyal to the incumbent, Joseph Kabila, providing dramatic proof of the fragility of the electoral process. Because both Kabila and Bemba will be tempted to use violence should they lose the second round, and the former in particular is very strong militarily, the Congolese government and the international community must move quickly to make secure the run-off as well as the provincial assembly elections on 29 October. Militias also threaten stability elsewhere in the country, notably in North Kivu and Ituri, but the capital is likely to be the most sensitive location again. A three-pronged strategy is required: improving security in Kinshasa, promoting a more responsible approach to the media and resolving some basic problems in the electoral process.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Politics
Political Geography:
Democratic Republic of the Congo and Kinshasa

1072. Uribe's Re-Election: Can the EU Help Colombia Develop a More Balanced Peace Strategy?

Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 28 May 2006, President Alvaro Uribe won a second four-year term in a landslide. The first re-election of a sitting Colombian president in more than a century, combined with 12 March congressional elections which produced a pro-Uribe majority and saw the demise of the traditional Liberal-Conservative party system, heralds a profound change in the political landscape. While the outcomes could hardly have been better for Uribe, he now needs to get tough on impunity and diversify an anti-insurgency policy that has been almost exclusively military if he is to move Colombia towards the end of its 40-year armed conflict. The international community, and specifically the European Union (EU), can help by urging a new balance between the president's favoured security policies and the social and economic measures that are needed to get at root causes.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Democratization
Political Geography:
Europe, Colombia, and Central America

1073. Afghanistan's New Legislature: Making Democracy Work

Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The new National Assembly has the potential to play a vital role in stabilising Afghanistan, entrenching pluralism, institutionalising political competition and giving voice to the country's diverse population. By being accountable to the Afghan people it can demand accountability of the presidential government. However, the success of this fledgling institution remains delicately poised, particularly because of the absence of a formal role for political parties, essential for mediating internal tensions. The lack of such organised blocs has seen power-brokers of past eras try to dominate proceedings. New moderate forces need to move quickly now to establish formal groups within the houses to ensure their voices are heard.
Topic:
Democratization and Development
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

1074. Nepal: From People Power to Peace?

Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
King Gyanendra's capitulation on 24 April 2006 in the face of a mass movement marked a victory for democracy in Nepal and, with a ceasefire between the new government and the Maoists now in place, the start of a serious peace process. Forced to acknowledge the “spirit of the people's movement”, Gyanendra accepted popular sovereignty, reinstated parliament and invited the mainstream seven-party alliance to implement its roadmap – including election of a constituent assembly to rewrite the constitution in line with the parties' five-month-old agreement with the Maoists. The international community lost credibility by attempting to pressure the parties into an unworkable compromise with the king and must now work hard to support a difficult transition and peace process while avoiding similar mistakes.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Asia and Nepal

1075. Nepal's Crisis: Mobilising International Influence

Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Pro-democracy demonstrations and a general strike across Nepal in recent weeks mark a decisive shift in the country's political equations and probably signal the approaching end of King Gyanendra's direct rule. A successful popular movement could advance the search for peace but will depend on strong political party leadership in dealing with the Maoists; a messy transition would bring its own risks. Although domestic events will determine the speed and direction of political change, international players should us e their influence to establish practical plans to help stabilise the situation and build a more lasting foundation for peace. This briefing argues for the early formation of a Contact Group (consisting of India, the U.S. and UK, working with the UN) and a complementary Peace Support Group (other key donors and international financial institutions) to form a common front on strategy and tactics to maximise international influence in assisting Nepal's escape from its worsening conflict.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, India, Asia, Nepal, and United Nations

1076. Serbia's New Constitution: Democracy Going Backwards

Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Premier Vojislav Kostunica won a high stakes gamble with passage of Serbia's draft constitution in the 28-29 October referendum. However, numerous credible reports indicate the process was deeply flawed and the result falsified. The referendum cannot be characterised as either free or fair. The new constitution could prove a step away from European values. It opens the door to increased centralisation of the state, curtailment of human and minority rights, destruction of judicial independence and potentially even a parliamentary dictatorship. The process used to pass the constitution illustrates how Kostunica continues to transform Serbia into something closer to illiberal authoritarianism than liberal democracy; yet, the referendum was welcomed by the Council of Europe, the European Union and the United States.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Serbia

1077. Zimbabwe: An Opposition Strategy

Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The risk of an explosion that could cost thousands of lives in the country and shatter the stability of Southern Africa is growing in Zimbabwe. Political reform is blocked, and virtually every economic indicator continues to trend downward. Inflation, poverty and malnutrition are growing more acute. Party and civil society opponents of President Mugabe's government are yet to tap effectively into the living-standards-based dissatisfaction but it could finally become the spark that sets Zimbabwe toward change. The course is risky but Zimbabwe's splintered opposition needs to come together to formulate a campaign of non-violent resistance that channels this anger and frustration into pressure on Mugabe to keep his word to retire by 2008 and on his ruling ZANU-PF party to negotiate seriously on a transition. The international community, long frustrated at its inability to influence the crisis, should assist, especially by tightening targeted sanctions (U.S./EU) and offering mediation services (South Africa).
Topic:
Democratization and Government
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, South Africa, and Zimbabwe

1078. Nigeria: Want in the Midst of Plenty

Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nigeria is Africa's most populous nation and perhaps also its most poorly understood. It has endured six successful and numerous failed military coups, a civil war that cost well over a million lives, three inconclusive transitions to democracy and recurrent factional violence. Despite more than $400 billion in oil revenue since the early 1970s, the economy under performs, and the great majority of citizens have benefited little. More effective institution building is imperative.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

1079. Iraq's Muqtada Al-Sadr: Spoiler or Stabiliser?

Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With stepped-up U.S.-led raids against Muqtada al-Sadr's militia, Jaysh al-Mahdi, and media allegations of the militia's responsibility for widespread and particularly horrendous sectarian killings in Baghdad on 9 July, the Shiite leader and his movement have become more central than ever. The war in Iraq radically reshuffled the country's political deck, bringing to the fore new actors and social forces, none more surprising and enigmatic, and few as critical to Iraq's stability, as Muqtada al-Sadr and the Sadrist movement he embodies. Largely unknown prior to the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime and bereft of resources Shiites typically must possess to assert their authority, Muqtada al-Sadr at first was dismissed as a marginal rabble-rouser, excluded from the political process and, after he flexed his muscles, decreed wanted “dead or alive” by the U.S.-led coalition. Learning the hard way, the U.S. and its allies have had to recognise the reality of the Sadrists' strength.
Topic:
Democratization and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

1080. Bolivia's Rocky Road to Reform?

Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The first-round victory of Evo Morales in the December 2005 presidential election profoundly altered Bolivia's politics and the way South America's poorest nation is seen abroad. His left-wing Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party rolled over the traditional parties in a landslide that reflected the expectations and desires of a majority of Bolivians for far-reaching socio-economic change, institutional reform and full inclusion of the mostly rural and indigenous poor. If Morales is to succeed, however – and he must if Bolivia is to avoid serious instability and violence – the international community will need to show understanding and offer support as he grapples with explosive issues of nationalisation, constitutional reform, autonomy, drugs and development policy.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia