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1031. Iraq's Muqtada Al-Sadr: Spoiler or Stabiliser?

Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With stepped-up U.S.-led raids against Muqtada al-Sadr's militia, Jaysh al-Mahdi, and media allegations of the militia's responsibility for widespread and particularly horrendous sectarian killings in Baghdad on 9 July, the Shiite leader and his movement have become more central than ever. The war in Iraq radically reshuffled the country's political deck, bringing to the fore new actors and social forces, none more surprising and enigmatic, and few as critical to Iraq's stability, as Muqtada al-Sadr and the Sadrist movement he embodies. Largely unknown prior to the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime and bereft of resources Shiites typically must possess to assert their authority, Muqtada al-Sadr at first was dismissed as a marginal rabble-rouser, excluded from the political process and, after he flexed his muscles, decreed wanted “dead or alive” by the U.S.-led coalition. Learning the hard way, the U.S. and its allies have had to recognise the reality of the Sadrists' strength.
Topic:
Democratization and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

1032. Bolivia's Rocky Road to Reform?

Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The first-round victory of Evo Morales in the December 2005 presidential election profoundly altered Bolivia's politics and the way South America's poorest nation is seen abroad. His left-wing Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party rolled over the traditional parties in a landslide that reflected the expectations and desires of a majority of Bolivians for far-reaching socio-economic change, institutional reform and full inclusion of the mostly rural and indigenous poor. If Morales is to succeed, however – and he must if Bolivia is to avoid serious instability and violence – the international community will need to show understanding and offer support as he grapples with explosive issues of nationalisation, constitutional reform, autonomy, drugs and development policy.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

1033. Koizumi's legacy: Japan's new politics

Author:
Dr. Malcolm Cook
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
September 20th will be a landmark day in Japanese politics. Junichiro Koizumi will step down as president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and, consequently, as prime minister of Japan. The fact that Koizumi will be stepping down on his own terms as Japan's longest-serving post-war leader and with his favoured successor, chief cabinet secretary Shinzo Abe, the clear front-runner to replace him, indicates just how much this self-styled maverick has recast Japanese politics. Abe's (likely) victory will institutionalise his predecessor's political legacy. This will ensure that Koizumi was not simply a charismatic flash in the pan, as his most trenchant critics inside the LDP and out had hoped, but a political reformer who has changed the nature of Japanese politics.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Politics
Political Geography:
Japan and Israel

1034. Russia's Challenges as Chair of the G-8

Author:
Anders Åslund
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
On January 1, Russia became the chair of the Group of Eight (G-8), the exclusive group of the biggest industrial democracies. This chairmanship raises many eyebrows. Russia was originally included in the G-8 to help lock in its democratic reforms, 1 but Russia is no longer even semidemocratic. Last year, US senators John McCain and Joseph Lieberman sponsored a resolution urging President Bush to work for the suspension of Russia's membership until the Russian government accepted and adhered to “the norms and standards of free, democratic societies as generally practiced by every other member nation of the Group of 8 nations.” Jeffrey Garten ( Financial Times , June 28, 2005) has called Russia's chairmanship “farcical,” saying, “Two trends are changing the world for the better—freer markets and democratization. . . . But, alone among the summit member Russia is moving in the opposite direction. . . . Moscow's leader - ship of the G-8 reduces the credibility and the relevance of the group to zero.”
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

1035. Struggle for the Future - The Poison of Populism and Democracy's Cure

Author:
Robert F. Noreiga
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
While the world's attention is focused on a struggling Iraq and a rising China, a battle for the heart and soul of the Americas is being waged closer to home. A simplistic account might describe this confrontation as a tug of war between U.S. president George W. Bush's vision and that of his self-appointed nemesis, Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez. Equally misleading are characterizations that describe the showdown as one between left and right, rich and poor, north and south. But this is not a battle between two powerful leaders or between ideologies of the left and right. The contest being waged in the Western Hemisphere is about democracy itself: can it deliver the goods for impatient publics? On one side are leaders from the left and right who see democratic institutions and the rule of law as indispensable to prosperity and liberty. On the other are those who treat democracy as an inconvenience and see free markets as a threat.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

1036. Back by Unpopular Demand - Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega

Author:
Robert F. Noriega
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
As Nicaraguans prepare to vote in their country's presidential election on November 5, Sandinista dictator Daniel Ortega is leading in the polls against a divided field. If Ortega were to regain the presidency, the reversal of the democratic trend in Central America would be devastating.
Topic:
Democratization, Markets, and Politics
Political Geography:
Central America

1037. American Exceptionalism

Author:
James Q. Wilson
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
When President George W. Bush said that America hopes to spread democracy to all the world, he was echoing a sentiment many people support. Though Americans do not put “extending democracy” near the top of their list of foreign policy objectives (preventing terrorism is their chief goal), few would deny that if popular rule is extended it would improve lives around the world. Democracy, of course, means rule by the people. But the devil is in the details. By one count, the number of democracies quintupled in the second half of the twentieth century, but there are freedom- loving and freedom-disdaining democracies. Fareed Zakaria calls the latter “illiberal democracies.” Among them are Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Ukraine, and Venezuela.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Venezuela

1038. Kuwait's Elections Exacerbate Differences between Ruler and Parliament

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The June 29 parliamentary elections in Kuwait achieved international media coverage because women were allowed to stand for office and vote for the first time in the sheikhdom. Less well reported were the local political divisions that had brought about elections a year earlier than expected. The results of the balloting—in which, incidentally, none of the women candidates won office—worsened the divisions between the Kuwaiti government and the National Assembly and could lead to greater public disagreement about the character of the country's alliance with the United States.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Kuwait

1039. Taking Aim at Syria and Hizballah: Walid Jumblat's Brave Stance

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On May 7, Lebanese Druze leader and member of parliament Walid Jumblat told reporters in Cairo that Hizballah should disarm. These comments came just four days after Jumblat offered his assistance to the Syrian opposition in establishing "a democratic and free Syria." Jumblat has always been an enigmatic and unpredictable interlocutor, and his recent statements on Syria and Hizballah typify his disregard for the conventions of the Lebanese political establishment. While many Lebanese may quietly support Jumblat's truth telling, his statements are sure to increase his list of powerful enemies.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

1040. Kuwait's Parliament Decides Who Rules

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
At a time when attention is focused on the problems democracy has brought in one part of the Middle East, such as the Palestinian territories, it has been easy to overlook how democratic processes were key to resolving a crisis in another Middle Eastern country: Kuwait. The January 15 death of Kuwait's emir, or ruler, Sheikh Jaber brought to power the physically and mentally incapacitated Sheikh Saad al-Abdullah al-Sabah. But the crisis engendered by his ill health and his refusal to abdicate was resolved quickly through democratic processes. On January 24, the parliament of the oil-rich Persian Gulf state of Kuwait exercised a previously unused constitutional power and voted to oust Sheikh Saad. The new emir, Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmed al-Sabah, is expected to be confirmed by parliament on January 29, and is now under pressure from some members of parliament to choose a prime minister from outside the ranks of the ruling al-Sabah family.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Middle East and Kuwait