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1271. Developing a Proactive Approach to EU Conflict Prevention: The first steps

Author:
Catriona Gourlay, Sibylle Bauer, Jens Mosegaard, Sharon Riggle, Kelly Baumgartner, and Otfried Nassauer
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
The Commission and the Secretary General/ High Representative (SGHR) Javier Solana presented a joint paper outlining challenges and recommendations for improving the effectiveness and cohesion of action for conflict prevention to the Nice European Council in December 20011. The Swedish Presidency now plans to build on these recommendations to develop a concrete programme for conflict prevention to be agreed at the Göteborg European Council in June 2001. This article identifies some of the elements that such a programme might contain.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

1272. Cluster Bombs: the Case for New Controls

Author:
Hugh Beach
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
Cluster Weapons consist of a large number of sub-munitions (“bomblets”) which are dispensed from a metal canister in mid-air and then disperse over a distance of several hundred metres. They are inherently indiscriminate since, once dispensed, the bomblets are un-guided and a threat to military and civilians alike. Bomblets are designed to knock out armoured vehicles but can also kill people to a radius of 30-40 metres.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

1273. Reinvigorating Multilateral Arms Control

Author:
Herbert Wulf and Michael Brzoska
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
Institutionalised or negotiated arms control at the multilateral level within the United Nations system and the bilateral level between the US and Russia fell into a state of crisis in the mid 1990s. Several factors contributed to this crisis. Firstly, with the slow but continuous disintegration of Russia's military apparatus the US emerged as the dominant power in international security relations. It has increasingly come to believe that it can control smaller states by military means and its interest in arms control has waned accordingly. Secondly, traditional arms control has proven too rigid in light of emerging post-Cold War security concerns. Regional and internal conflicts have resulted in more emphasis on UN peacekeeping operations and controlling or eliminating the weapons most commonly used in these wars (such as landmines, small arms and light weapons). When it became clear that it would not be possible to negotiate the landmines ban within traditional arms control institutions, so-called 'friendly states' began to develop new parallel fora. The Ottawa Process, which consisted of fast-track diplomatic negotiations culminating in the signing of the Landmines Convention, is an example of this new type of arms control initiative. Thirdly, the main aim of arms control is no longer stability, whereby states aim to maintain parity and build trust. Instead, the focus has turned to limiting the costs of armaments acquisition and disarmament
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

1274. Human Security: A Brief Report of the State of the Art

Author:
Khatchik Derghoukassian
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
Ten years after the end of the Cold War, a revised concept of “security” has not yet produced as broad or thorough understanding as when security implied a narrow, yet clear framework centered on the state and the military . The classical understanding of security, often referred to as “national security,” meant different uses of military force to defend the integrity of the state, generally in a strategically oriented, rational-choice perspective of analysis. Neither the growing interdependence of the 1970s along with the advance of the neo-institutionalist approach in international relations, nor the more realist-oriented efforts of linking the economy with security truly challenged a classical understanding of the concept of security. The fact that this theoretical understanding was widely applied in foreign and defense policy contributed to its strength, even if critics maintained that this was a self-fulfilling prophecy. In a widely quoted 1991 article, Stephen Walt offers a comprehensive review of the evolution of the field of study labeled “security studies” from the post-Second World War “Golden Age” to the “Renaissance” of the 1970s. Although Walt differentiates between the pre-Second World War study of strategy, limited to the professional military, and the expansion of the field with the involvement of civilians for the first time during World War II, he defined the focus of security studies clearly as the study of war.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy

1275. Prospects 2002 — Euro-Area Economy

Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
This week's piece focuses on the economic prospects for the euro-area in 2002. The euro-area economy has shown increasing signs of cyclical weakness since the beginning of 2001. These signs, compounded by the effects of accelerated decline in the United States since the September 11 terrorist attacks, indicate continuing stagnation into 2002 and growing difficulties for states to maintain their fiscal positions. SGP requirements are reducing the fiscal room for manoeuvre of euro-area states to respond to the current economic downturn. The absence of concerted intervention represents a considerable risk, particularly if global demand fails to pick up in 2002.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East

1276. Middle East — Bin Laden Prognosis

Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
This week's piece examines the prospects for the al-Qaida group and Osama bin Laden's wider terrorist network following the fall of the Taliban and the loss of many of its facilities in Afghanistan. Key elements of bin Laden's network have been seriously damaged. Some operational cells are likely to survive but most are likely to remain inactive for the foreseeable future in order to avoid detection. Al-Qaida is likely to remain active but less effective than hitherto. As long as the reasons for bin Laden's appeal to certain Islamist constituencies remains, new cells and entirely new groups will be formed within migrant communities and among those engaged in regional conflicts around the world.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East

1277. Afghanistan — War Aims

Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
This piece focuses on the obstacles facing the US-led military campaign in Afghanistan. In order to defend the United States and its allies against further terrorist attacks, the US-led military campaign in Afghanistan seeks to destroy Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida organisation and topple the Taliban regime which hosts it. However, significant obstacles stand in the way of victory. Washington appears to have embarked upon a long-term simultaneous military, political, diplomatic and economic strategy to achieve its objectives in Afghanistan. However, given the absence of any credible pan-Afghan leaders and the deleterious effects of more than two decades of internecine warfare, this approach carries high risks. They include even greater political fragmentation of the country, continued war and possible regional destabilisation.
Topic:
Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Middle East

1278. Eastern Europe — Enlarging NATO

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The prime ministers of nine East European states seeking membership of NATO will meet in Bratislava this week, to maintain pressure for a 'big bang' enlargement of the Alliance. Enlargement will be conditioned to a greater extent than before by concerns over the cohesion of Alliance decision-making and, particularly, by the military contribution new members can make. Despite Alliance aid, applicant states and new members have struggled to develop balanced and sustainable defence plans, while the NATO-19 have yet to resolve the problems posed by Russia's attitude to enlargement.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Russia and Eastern Europe

1279. When (And How) Regions Become Peaceful: Explaining Transitions From War To Peace

Author:
Benjamin Miller
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
Abstract:
Three important regions have moved from war to peace during the 20th century: South America in the beginning of the century, Western Europe in the middle while the Middle East has begun the move toward the end of the century. Not only did these moves take place in different periods in this century, but they also resulted in completely different types and levels of peace. How can we best explain these transitions and variations? Western Europe moved from a major war-zone to a zone of peace in the years following World War II. South America started the move to regional peace, even if not perfectly, much earlier in the 20th century. However, since the late 1950s Western Europe has reached a much higher level of peace than South America. A vigorous peace process began in the Middle East, in contrast, only in the early 1990s and the peace there is still much more fragile than in the other regions.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and South America

1280. International And Transatlantic Images Of Belonging: The United States And Europe In The 21st Century

Author:
John A. Hall
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
Abstract:
This topic was suggested to me by a fellow academic. Otherdirectedness has normally appealed to me in intellectual affairs, for it has encouraged thought on subjects otherwise not on my agenda. But I am uncomfortable on this occasion. Explaining why I feel as if I have been offered what chess players' refer to as a poisoned pawn allows immediate highlighting of the argument to be made.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States and Europe