In the second part of the 20th century, the world's attention focused twice on Latin America, first during the Cuban crisis in 1962 and then during the conflicts in Central America in the Eighties and Nineties. The situation there had a direct impact on the general balance of the planet. It was a hot spot. Today this region is not on the agenda anymore: it no longer represents a global threat in terms of security.
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:
The Schlesinger Working Group on Strategic Surprises in Spring 2003 took on the topic, "The Unintended Consequences of an Expanded U.S. Military Presence in the Muslim World", holding its first meeting March 18, literally on the eve of war against Iraq. Its second meeting was held May 27, after the war ended, and as the difficulties of post-war reconstruction were becoming clearer. Core members and area/subject experts met to examine benefits and drawbacks, as well as scenarios that could stem from an expanded American military presence in the Middle East, South Asia and North Africa.
Topic:
Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, South Asia, Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa
Catriona Gourlay, Catriona Mace, and Gerrard Quille
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
The European Security Strategy (ESS) adopted as the basis for an EU Strategic Concept at the Thessaloniki European Council on 20 June is intellectually coherent, holistic and sufficiently flexible to enable the EU to adapt effectively to the changing security environment. It directly addresses the US priorities of international terrorism and weapons of mass destruction (WMD), proposing concrete steps within a broad framework. Moreover, should member states muster sufficient will to agree a Security Concept in December 2003, this will represent an important moment in the evolution of the EU-US strategic partnership. It remains to be seen, however, whether this will deliver effective multilateralism, an institutionalised and equitable dialogue with the US and the capabilities required for decisive and rapid responses to international crises.
Catriona Gourlay, Catriona Mace, and Jocelyn Mawdsley
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
Now that the war in Iraq is officially over, the EU must consider what role it can play in post-war reconstruction. Thus far the Union has reacted swiftly to the humanitarian crisis but not yet defined the part that it will play in the stabilisation and institution building processes. With the US announcement that an interim administration should be in place in Iraq by June the pressure is on to define the EU's role in the reconstruction of Iraq and build bridges within its own CFSP.
Catriona Gourlay, Catriona Mace, Gerrard Quille, and Malin Tappert
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
The extraordinary meeting of the European Council held in Brussels on 17th February was as much about the crisis in the EU as it was about the crisis in Iraq. The summit brought a welcome restatement of common principles after weeks of disunity among member states. However, while it succeeded in highlighting the commonalities in member state positions: multi-lateralism, support for the UN, and for a regional solution in the Middle East, there was no indication that divisions over the necessity and timing of the use of force had been bridged.
In this first conference session speakers addressed the ways in which structural reforms could improve the integration and accountability of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP). The draft constitution then under discussion at the European Convention was evaluated and the session aimed to identify further reforms that could be enacted in order to improve the integration and accountability of EU action in foreign affairs, security and defence.
Illicit trafficking and misuse of small arms and light weapons (SALW)1pose serious threats to international peace and security. SALW proliferation facilitates and fuels violent conflicts, causes grave human suffering and contributes to armed banditry and crime. Moreover, the excessive availability of SALW on licit and black markets hinders conflict resolution and greatly undermines sustainable development.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
This report analyzes an important aspect of Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF): the interdiction of Iraqi ground units by coalition air forces. Based on air campaign statistics, observations from the field, and the experience of past air campaigns, the report assesses the likely impact (in terms of combatant casualties) of coalition air attacks on the Iraqi army in the field. Our approach is a comparative one that views the OIF air interdiction campaign in light of the experience of the 1991 Gulf War. Among the issues we explore is the contribution of coalition air power to the catastrophic collapse of the Iraqi Republican Guard and regular army.
David Cortright, Alistair Millar, George A. Lopez, and Linda Gerber
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:
The failure of U.S. and British forces in Iraq to find evidence of weapons of mass destruction has sparked controversy on both sides of the Atlantic and in the wider international community. Two contending explanations have been offered for why the Bush administration made apparently questionable claims about weapons of mass destruction. The first alleges an intelligence failure. The best analysts in the CIA simply had no foolproof way of discerning what Saddam had. They gave the administration a wide-ranging set of estimates, from benign to worst-case, and, given the way bureaucracies behave, the president's advisors adopted the worse case scenario. The second claim, more odious in form and substance, is that the administration inflated and manipulated uncertain data, possibly even requesting that material sent to it be redone to fit preconceived notions. The Bush administration has gone to great pains to reassert that it stands by its previous pronouncements that prohibited weapons will be located in due time.
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
The history of anti-ballistic missile (ABM) defenses is long and controversial. From the late 1990s and until today, what to do about missile defenses and the 1972 ABM Treaty has been one of the central problems in U.S.-Russian relations. Several times the United States and Russia appeared to have been on the verge of a new Cold War over this question. This paper reviews the history of the missile defense debate and offers some observations on a way forward. On balance, it may be best for the international community to downplay the Bush administration's missile defense plans and instead focus on promoting diplomatic solutions to the missile proliferation problem. Moreover, the international community should examine the possibilities of banning long-range ballistic missiles. This would make U.S. plans for a national missile defense (NMD) redundant, while at the same time improving international security in general.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction