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281. Explaining Variation in Public Debt: A Quantitative Analysis of the Effects of Governance

Author:
Andreas Eisl
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
This paper examines the main political influence factors accounting for the variation in public debt accumulation on a global scale. This allows for a reassessment of the recent focus on a regime type theory of public debt and for a test of an alternative governance theory. I argue that political stability, the rule of law, the control of corruption, government effectiveness, and regulatory quality promote lower public debt accumulation by reducing the incentives for governments to “borrow from the future,” by increasing state capacity to collect taxes and effectively use public funds, and by providing more security and equity to private investment, inducing higher economic growth and tax revenues. Both theories are tested against a number of controls stemming from theories of public choice, theories of governmental distributional conflict, as well as from politico-institutional and macroeconomic explanations of public debt accumulation. Applying different specifications of quantitative models, the two governance indicators political stability and regulatory quality show consistent effects on public debt accumulation, partly confirming the proposed governance theory. Furthermore, the paper can reproduce a public debt-reducing effect of more democratic regime types across a number of model specifications – though without a high degree of robustness.
Topic:
Corruption, Economics, International Political Economy, Regulation, Rule of Law, Macroeconomics, and Public Debt
Political Geography:
Global Focus

282. Efficacy for Fighting Corruption: Evidence from 36 African Countries

Author:
Thomas Isbell
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Corruption is a major obstacle to economic growth, human development, and poverty reduction (Mauro, 1995, 2004; Asiedu, 2006). The practice of demanding or expecting monetary or other benefits in exchange for preferential treatment has plagued the global South, and high-profile revelations of corruption in politics and business have shed light on the magnitude of the problem (Baker, 2016; McCool, 2015). The poor are most vulnerable to both the immediate effects of having to pay bribes or do favours and the longer-term impacts of hampered growth and weakened investment power (Hosken, 2017; Baker, 2016). Recent research by Peiffer and Rose (2014) and Justesen and Bjørnskov (2014) notes that poor citizens faced with official corruption have fewer means to seek out services from alternative providers and are thus forced to “play the game.” In recent years, headlines have pointed toward a stronger stance against corruption in Africa. In South Africa, Ghana, Sierra Leone, and other countries, scandals and government responses have placed corruption at center stage. In Nigeria, President Muhammadu Buhari’s winning ticket in 2015 included zero tolerance for corruption, and he has taken several steps to try to fight what he calls the “hydra-headed monster” (Maclean, 2016; Gaffey, 2016). In Tanzania, President John Magafuli won the 2015 election after a campaign denouncing corruption and misconduct among civil servants (Muvunyi, 2016). No doubt strong and committed leadership is necessary if meaningful progress is to be made in fighting corruption. But as with any attempt to change the status quo, it is equally important that the policy be accepted, “lived,” and enforced by ordinary citizens. To what extent do ordinary Africans feel they can combat corruption? What informs whether citizens believe they can play a role? Findings from Afrobarometer Round 6 (2014/2015) surveys suggest that education and material security contribute to building efficacy among ordinary citizens for the fight against corruption. But leadership also matters: Perceptions that elected leaders or officials are corrupt make citizens less likely to think they can make a difference.
Topic:
Corruption, Governance, Leadership, Transparency, and Bureaucracy
Political Geography:
Africa

283. Key Issues and Policy Recommendations Compilation

Author:
Philipp H. Fluri, Oleksiy Melnyk, and Nazli Yildirim Schierkolk
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
This publication provides an overview of the key issues discussed and policy recommenda- tions proposed during the series of conferences for the project “Monitoring Ukraine’s Security Governance Challenges”. The project was implemented jointly by DCAF and the Razumkov Centre with the financial support of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands. This report compiles key issues and recommendations for all 9 conference and is intended to serve as a reference point for future needs assessments, as well as for further consultations with Ukrainian and international stakeholders. The key issues are categorised thematically, rather than by conference, since certain issues were discussed in several events. Each sub-section concludes with respective policy recommendations.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Corruption, International Organization, Governance, Democracy, Media, Legislation, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Geneva, Ukraine, Switzerland, and Global Focus

284. Key Issues and Policy Recommendations, Conference 7

Author:
Philipp H. Fluri, Oleksiy Melnyk, and Nazli Yildirim
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
This publication offers the Key Issues and Policy Recommendations based on the results of the Seventh International Conference “Ukraine’s Civilian Security Sector: Reforms’ Progress and Challenges”. Conference Seven, following to the previous conferences recommendations, provided a platform to discuss the status of reforms in the civilian security sector with a view to identifying key barriers and challenges; and discuss the role of criminal justice institutions in tackling corruption in the civilian security sector.
Topic:
Security, Corruption, Government, Judiciary, and Oversight
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Global Focus

285. Conference Proceedings 6: Defence Production, Sales and Acquisitions

Author:
Philipp H. Fluri, Oleksiy Melnyk, and Nazli Yildirim
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
This publication offers the proceedings of Conference 6 on Security Sector Governance in Ukraine. The conference focused on defence production, sales and acquisitions. The objective of the event was to identify current reform priorities and challenges in the area of defence production, sale and procurement; to detect weaknesses in oversight structures and to put forward relevant solutions; to review relevant lessons learned and best practices; and to identify capacity development needs.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Corruption, Governance, Institutions, and Procurement
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Global Focus

286. New Report on Abuse of State Resources in Georgia

Author:
Erica Shein, Chad Vickery, Heather Szilagyi, and Julia Brothers
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:
his report details findings from an IFES Abuse of State Resources Assessment conducted in Georgia following October 2016 elections. This assessment served as the pilot test of the Abuse of State Resources Research and Assessment Framework assessment methodology, which was researched, developed, and peer-reviewed under the Global Elections and Political Transitions mechanism supported by the United States Agency for International Development. Using this methodology, the report draws on detailed desk research as well as a field research mission to Georgia in May 2017. Findings are focused on abuse of state resources (ASR) legal provisions, oversight institutions and enforcement mechanisms. ASR violations are a consistent feature of national and municipal elections in Georgia, and assessment interlocutors see the participation of civil servants in campaign activities as one of the most significant challenges. Also of concern is the perceived over-staffing of public service departments and legal entities of public law, especially at the local level. This report aims to provide actionable recommendations for improving the ASR environment in Georgia. The report focuses on three principles for detecting, deterring and remedying ASR abuses in a manner commensurate with international standards. Principle 1 evaluates the legal framework for addressing three potential avenues for ASR: state personnel, state funds and physical resources, and official government communications. Principle 2 focuses on oversight of the ASR legal framework by independent institutions. Principle 3 analyzes the effective enforcement of sanctions and penalties. The methodology applied for this assessment also acknowledges the need to account for contextual factors may impact the ASR in elections. As such, the report provides a narrative overview of challenges related to the public service framework, campaign finance framework, civil society oversight and advocacy, media environment and public information, and public procurement in Georgia. Based on in-depth analysis of each of the areas described above, the report offers detailed recommendations to strengthen the legal framework with an emphasis on clarifying the rights and responsibilities of civil servants, ensuring that ASR sanctions and penalties achieve a deterrent effect, and clarifying mandates of oversight and enforcement bodies.
Topic:
Corruption, Elections, Voting, Election Interference, and Rigged Elections
Political Geography:
Europe, Eurasia, Eastern Europe, and Georgia

287. How Anonymous Shell Companies Finance Insurgents, Criminals, and Dictators

Author:
Jodi Vittori
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The Panama Papers leak of eleven million documents in April 2016 revealed that former Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, the brother-in-law of Chinese President Xi Jinping, longtime friends of Russian President Vladimir Putin, drug kingpins, and even a soccer megastar had something in common: they all channeled money through anonymous shell companies. Anonymous shell companies are entities that usually employ few or no workers, do not conduct any substantive business, and allow their owners to store or route money while hiding their identities. Because of the secrecy they can provide, anonymous companies represent an important nexus of corruption, money laundering, transnational organized crime, and terrorism, which directly harm U.S. interests. As one of the main facilitators of anonymous companies, the United States should pass legislation to disclose ownership information for all companies, increase federal contract transparency, and boost other business and government transparency mechanisms at home and abroad. Doing so would significantly cut back on the ability of terrorists, criminals, and their ilk to use American corporations, real estate, and trusts to finance activities that harm the United States and its foreign interests.
Topic:
Corruption, International Trade and Finance, Transparency, and Panama Papers
Political Geography:
Global Focus

288. Russia’s Crony Capitalism: Stagnant But Stable

Author:
Anders Åslund
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The Russian economy is caught in stagnation, but thanks to a skillful macroeconomic policy, the economy has stabilized. The current economic model is dualistic. On the one hand, the so-called systemic liberals are in charge of macroeconomic policy, which they pursue eminently. On the other, President Vladimir Putin allows state corporations, cronies, and law enforcement agencies to dominate the corporate economy, enriching themselves with little consideration of legality. Anders Aslund's paper discusses the state of the Russian economy and the prospects for reform and growth.
Topic:
Corruption, Economics, Reform, Capitalism, Economic Growth, Putin, Cronyism, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Russia and Eastern Europe

289. Myanmar Maneuvers How to Break Political-Criminal Alliances in Contexts of Transition

Author:
Vanda Felbab-Brown
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
In “Myanmar Maneuvers,” a detailed report published by the United Nations University Centre for Policy Research’s Crime-Conflict Nexus Series in April 2017, Vanda Felbab-Brown assesses complex interactions among illegal economies, conflict, peace, and political transitions in Myanmar since the 1990s. She analyzes the evolution of the illegal economies in drugs, logging, wildlife trafficking, and gems and minerals as well as land grabbing and crony capitalism, showing how they shaped political transitions and how political evolution and changes shaped them. She also examines the impact of geopolitics and the regional environment, particularly the role of China, both in shaping domestic political developments in Myanmar and the country’s illicit economies.
Topic:
Corruption and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Myanmar

290. The Hellish Road to Good Intentions How to Break Political-Criminal Alliances in Contexts of Transition

Author:
Vanda Felbab-Brown
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Large-scale illicit economies and organized crime have received increasing attention from governments and international organizations since the end of the Cold War. The end of the Cold War brought a permissive strategic environment that allowed many states to focus on a broader menu of interests in their foreign policy agendas, such as the fight against drug trafficking and production. The post-Cold War era also exposed the fragility and institutional underdevelopment of many of these states, a deficiency perhaps exacerbated by globalization. At the same time, criminal and belligerent actors with significant power previously obscured by the shadows of Cold War politics were spotlighted by the international community, especially when their activities were associated with intense violence or corruption.
Topic:
Corruption and Political Theory
Political Geography:
Global Focus