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622. Regional implications of the conflict in Syria: a view from Israel
- Author:
- Yossi Alpher
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- Syria is geo-strategically, historically and politically the most central of Middle East countries, hence the over-riding importance of the conflict there. Yet any discussion of the regional implications of that conflict is necessarily highly speculative. Its points of departure are the instances of regional intervention and "overflow" from the situation already taking place. Turkey, with its open support for the armed Syrian opposition, is the leading candidate to establish "safe zones" or even "humanitarian corridors" that could conceivably lead to war. Ankara's growing rivalry with Iran is increasingly being acted out in Syria and is interacting with tensions between Sunni Muslims and Alawites/Shias not only in Syria, but in Lebanon and Iraq as well.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Regime Change, Bilateral Relations, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Syria
623. South Sudan's emergency state
- Author:
- Jort Hemmer
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- Monday July 9th 2012 marked South Sudan's first anniversary as an independent state. But one year down the road, what is there to celebrate for this newborn polity? Faced with political stability and enduring external and domestic threats to its security, the nascent state of South Sudan has evolved into a patronage and crisis management tool for the ruling elite, putting the benefits of governance well beyond the reach of the majority of the population. There is little doubt that continuing conflict with Sudan, extreme underdevelopment and dependence on oil revenues will ensure that South Sudan remains a state in emergency for years to come. In many ways the characteristics and uses of this emergency dominate domestic political calculus. Essential institutional reforms have been postponed, as has any real democratic opening. Until a measure of calm in South Sudan's relations with Sudan is achieved, donors will have to look for areas of engagement where their objectives do not interfere with the short-term interests of a government that subsists on a war footing. In this regard South Sudan's decision to suspend oil production and the subsequent need to generate alternative revenues may offer new opportunities.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, and Oil
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Sudan
624. The war for Afghanistan
- Author:
- Ross Eventon
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- At its core, the U.S.-led occupation of Afghanistan is an attempt to establish a client regime supported by a military operation to pacify resistance. In May 2012, the Obama administration took a major step towards consolidating its war aims and signed the Enduring Partnership Agreement with President Karzai, which ensures a U.S. military presence for at least a decade after 2014. It is clear from this agreement, the previous memorandums on detention and night raids, and the continuing development of U.S. mega-bases in the country that 2014 is far from a “withdrawal” date.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Islam, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States
625. Sectarian violence: Pakistan's greatest security threat?
- Author:
- Huma Yusuf
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- Pakistan is experiencing a sharp resurgence in sectarian violence. Most frequently, such violence involves clashes between members of the two main sects of Islam – Sunnis and Shias – but violent incidents between the Barelvi and Deobandi sub-sects of Sunni Islam are also on the rise. The heightened frequency and brutality of Sunni-Shia clashes threaten national security – Pakistan's is the second-largest Shia population in the world after Iran – as well as bilateral relations with Iran and the regional power dynamic vis-à-vis Saudi Arabian influence.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Fragile/Failed State, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Iran, and Saudi Arabia
626. The mercy of neighbours: security and governance in a new Somalia
- Author:
- Roland Marchal
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- Somalia has long been a byword for statelessness and extreme insecurity. However, eight years of transitional rule are set to end in 2012, and expectations are rising that continued military-led stabilisation, changing regional security dynamics and efforts to rebuild the Somalia state might soon enable the country to declare an end to two decades of civil war.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, Islam, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Somalia
627. The future of Israel-Palestine: a one-state reality in the making
- Author:
- Khalil Shikaki
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- With no agreement on a two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in sight, one-state dynamics are gaining momentum – a development that will be difficult to reverse or even contain. In the medium and long term, no one benefits from such a development. Indeed, all might lose: an ugly one-state dynamic has no happy ending, and such a solution is rejected by Palestinians and Israelis alike. Instead, the emerging one-state reality increases the potential for various kinds of conflicts and contradictory impulses. The international community too finds itself unprepared and perhaps unwilling to confront this emerging reality, but in doing so it imperils the prospects for peace in the region – the exact thing it seeks to promote.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia
628. Palestinian youth and the Arab Spring
- Author:
- Jacob Høigilt, Mona Christophersen, and Åge A. Tiltnes
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- This report investigates young Palestinians' views of their economic and political situation and their interest and level of engagement in politics with reference to two momentous political events in 2011: the Arab Spring and the Palestinian bid for statehood at the United Nations (UN) General Assembly. A main question is whether the Occupied Palestinian Territories are experiencing a reinvigoration of youth activism.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Demographics, Regime Change, and Youth Culture
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, and United Nations
629. The Consequences of Failed Mediation in Civil Wars: Assessing the Sri Lankan Case
- Author:
- Sandra Destradi and Johannes Vüllers
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- While mediation efforts in violent conflicts often fail, the academic literature on mediation has long ignored both this phenomenon and its consequences. This paper aims to fill this significant knowledge gap by examining the conditions under which the failure of mediation leads to an escalation of civil war. Based on the literature on bargaining, we argue that the degree of negotiability of the conflict parties' strategic objectives, as well as the relative weight of hardliners and moderates within those conflict parties, influence the likelihood of escalation after mediation failure. A plausibility test carried out for Norway's failed mediation in the Sri Lankan civil war confirms the usefulness of our model. In particular, the suspension of negotiations in April 2003 led to a shift towards less negotiable strategic objectives for both conflict parties and to a strengthening of hardliners within the government. This contributed to the escalation of the conflict, up to its eventual termination in May 2009.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Civil War, Diplomacy, Terrorism, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Sri Lanka
630. Postwar Youth Violence: A Mirror of the Relationship between Youth and Adult Society
- Author:
- Sabine Kurtenbach
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- Postwar societies are high-risk contexts for youth violence. Nevertheless, not all postwar societies are equally violent. This article explores how these variations can be explained by focusing on the interaction between youths and adult society in a comparison of Guatemala and Cambodia. Starting from the concept of socialization and the possibilities of performing status passages to adulthood, it analyzes not only the different risk factors but also the agency of young people and society in trying to cope with and overcome obstacles on the pathway to adulthood. Different patterns of war termination and of reconstruction after war's end are identified as major intervening variables that explain the variations in youth violence in as well as across the case studies.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Crime, War, and Youth Culture
- Political Geography:
- Cambodia and Guatemala