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581. Drugs in Afghanistan—A Forgotten Issue?

Author:
William Byrd and David Mansfield
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Opium will continue to be an important part of the Afghan landscape—with political and security as well as economic ramifications. The ongoing security transition (2011-2014) will be accompanied by greater risks to Afghani­stan's polity, security and economy from the illicit drug industry—including through likely further increases in opium production.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Corruption, Crime, Terrorism, War on Drugs, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

582. What Is Boko Haram?

Author:
Andrew Walker
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Boko Haram is an Islamic sect that believes politics in northern Nigeria has been seized by a group of corrupt, false Muslims. It wants to wage a war against them, and the Federal Republic of Nigeria generally, to create a “pure” Islamic state ruled by sharia law. Since August 2011 Boko Haram has planted bombs almost weekly in public or in churches in Nigeria's northeast. The group has also broadened its targets to include setting fire to schools. In March 2012, some twelve public schools in Maiduguri were burned down during the night, and as many as 10,000 pupils were forced out of education. Boko Haram is not in the same global jihadist bracket as Algeria's al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, or Somalia's al Shabab. Despite its successful attack on the UN compound in Abuja in August 2011, Boko Haram is not bent on attacking Western interests. There have been no further attacks on international interests since that time. Following the failed rescue of hostages Chris McManus and Franco Lamolinara in north¬eastern Nigeria in March 2012, President Goodluck Jonathan played up the connections between the group and international terrorism. However, links between Boko Haram and the kidnappers are questionable. It is difficult to see how there can be meaningful dialogue between the government and the group. The group's cell-like structure is open for factions and splits, and there would be no guarantee that someone speaking for the group is speaking for all of the members. Tactics employed by government security agencies against Boko Haram have been consis-tently brutal and counterproductive. Their reliance on extrajudicial execution as a tactic in “dealing” with any problem in Nigeria not only created Boko Haram as it is known today, but also sustains it and gives it fuel to expand. The group will continue to attack softer targets in the northeast rather than international targets inside or outside Nigeria. It is also likely to become increasingly involved in the Jos crisis, where it will attack Christian indigenes of the north and try to push them out. Such a move would further threaten to destabilize the country's stability and unity.Now that the group has expanded beyond a small number of mosques, radical reforms in policing strategy are necessary if there is to be any progress in countering the group. Wide¬spread radical reform of the police is also long overdue throughout Nigeria. As a first step, jailing a number of police officers responsible for ordering human rights abuses might go some way to removing a key objection of the group.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, Religion, United Nations, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Africa, Algeria, Nigeria, and Somalia

583. The Emerging Order in the Middle East

Author:
Marina Ottaway, Paul Salem, Nathan J. Brown, and Sinan Ülgen
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
After more than a year of Arab uprisings, the emerging political order in the Middle East is marked by considerable shifts within individual countries as well as at the regional level. Domestically and internationally, new actors are emerging in strong positions and others are fading in importance. Islamist parties are on the rise with many secular forces losing power. And across the region, economic concerns have risen to the fore. These domestic changes have implications for both regional and international actors. There are a number of more ambitious economic and political steps the West should take to respond to these power shifts and engage with these new players.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Regime Change, and Governance
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

584. Libya's Troubled Transition

Author:
Paul Salem and Amanda Kadlec
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
More than a year after the outbreak of the uprising against Muammar Qaddafi's rule, Libya is in the midst of a challenging transition. Qaddafi is dead, his forty-two-year-old regime overthrown, and the country liberated. And now Libyans are laying the groundwork for elections that will start their country on the path to a new constitution.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Africa, Libya, and Arabia

585. Gaza Five Years On: Hamas Settles In

Author:
Nathan J. Brown
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
As political upheavals spread over much of the Middle East and North Africa in 2011, regimes throughout the region were shaken and a few fell. But in both the West Bank and Gaza, a soft authoritarianism that has provoked uprisings elsewhere has only been further entrenching itself.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Democratization, Education, and Islam
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, Gaza, and Cameroon

586. Sudan: From Conflict to Conflict

Author:
Marina Ottaway and Mai El-Sadany
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Less than a year after the old “greater” Sudan split into the northern Republic of Sudan and the new Republic of South Sudan—or North and South Sudan, for clarity—the two countries were again in a state of war. Years of international efforts to bring an end to decades of conflict by helping to negotiate the Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2005 and later efforts to ensure a smooth separation of North and South appear to have come to naught.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Genocide, Islam, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

587. Israel and the Palestinians After the Arab Spring: No Time for Peace

Author:
Andrea Dessì
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
While spared from internal turmoil, Israel and the Palestinian Territories have nonetheless been affected by the region's political transformation brought about by the Arab Spring. Reflecting what can be described as Israel's “bunker” mentality, the Israeli government has characterized the Arab revolutionary wave as a security challenge, notably given its concern about the rise of Islamist forces. Prime Minister Netanyahu has capitalized on this sense of insecurity to justify his government's lack of significant action when it comes to the peace process. On the Palestinian side, both Hamas and Fatah have lost long-standing regional backers in Egypt and Syria and have had to contend with their increasingly shaky popular legitimacy. This has spurred renewed efforts for reconciliation, which however have so far produced no significant results. Against this backdrop, the chances for a resumption of serious Israeli-Palestinian peace talks appear increasingly dim. An effort by the international community is needed to break the current deadlock and establish an atmosphere more conducive for talks. In this context, the EU carries special responsibility as the only external actor that still enjoys some credibility as a balanced mediator between the sides.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Syria, and Egypt

588. The Somali Crisis: Failed State and International Interventions

Author:
Rossella Marangio
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The long-lasting Somali conflict is profoundly linked to the country's historical development and its socio-cultural specificities. The political milieu and the struggle for power in Somalia reflect the cleavage between tradition and modernity. This rift has led to a legitimacy vacuum, which has made it difficult for the warring parties to find enough common ground for a compromise. Furthermore, external influences, at both regional and international levels, have contributed to the fragmentation of the political arena, due notably to the emphasis on the use of force as the principal tool for acquiring or maintaining power. In this unfolding crisis, regional pressures and rivalries, international interventions, economic and strategic interests as well as piracy, corruption and Islamic extremism all play an interlocking role. In view of this, a new approach to the crisis is badly needed. The EU, in particular, should promote a new strategy based on three components: enhancement of social cohesion through local cooperation programmes, state-building and development.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Islam, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Somalia

589. Humanitarian Funding

Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
In both conflicts and disasters, people anywhere have the right to the humanitarian assistance and protection that they need. When national governments are unable to provide it, or need support, the international community has a responsibility to help, including through funding humanitarian action by disaster-affected governments, local and national NGOs, the UN and others. Despite increased funding, new donors and initiatives the level and nature of funding remains inadequate.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, Non-Governmental Organization, War, Natural Disasters, and Refugee Issues
Political Geography:
United Nations

590. Provision of Aid by Foreign Military Forces

Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Foreign military forces, including UN peacekeeping operations, should not provide relief or development assistance, other than in exceptional cases. Governments should follow the accepted international standards to judge those exceptional circumstances, and determine how military forces should act. These standards are the Guidelines on the Use of Foreign Military and Civil Defence Assets in Disaster Relief [the Oslo Guidelines] for natural disasters, and separate UN guidelines for conflicts.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Humanitarian Aid, and Natural Disasters
Political Geography:
United Nations