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512. Nuclear Iran: A Glossary of Terms
- Author:
- Simon Henderson and Olli Heinonen
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- At a time of hot debate over possible military action against Iran's nuclear program, the need for a clear understanding of the issues and the controversial science and technology behind them has never been more acute. Toward that end, scholars from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs have copublished an interactive online glossary of terms used in the discussion about Iran. The report was prepared by proliferation expert Simon Henderson and Olli Heinonen, former deputy director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Covering the jargon and history behind IAEA inspections, centrifuge enrichment, basic nuclear physics, and early nuclear weapons development in Pakistan and the United States, the glossary provides an indispensable guide to an increasingly complex problem.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Defense Policy, and Islam
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Washington, and Middle East
513. Does Uranium Mining Increase Civil Conflict Risk? Evidence from a Spatiotemporal Analysis of Africa from 1945 to 2010, September 2012
- Author:
- Matthias Basedau and Carlo Koos
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- We employ a two‐tier spatiotemporal analysis to investigate whether uranium operations cause armed conflict in Africa. The macrolevel analysis suggests that – compared to the baseline conflict risk – uranium ventures increase the risk of intrastate conflict by 10 percent. However, we find ethnic exclusion to be a much better predictor of armed conflict than uranium. The microlevel analysis reveals that uranium‐spurred conflicts are spatiotemporally feasible in four countries: the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Namibia, Niger and South Africa. We find strong evidence in the case of Niger, and partial evidence in the case of the DRC. Namibia and South Africa do not yield substantial evidence of uranium‐ induced conflicts. We conclude that uranium may theoretically be a conflictinducing resource, but to the present day empirical evidence has been sparse as most countries are still in the exploration phase. Considering that the coming years will see 25 African countries transition from uranium explorers into producers, we strongly suggest that our analysis be revisited in the coming years.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Post Colonialism, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- Africa
514. Mitigating the Consequences of Violent Conflict: What Works and What Does Not?
- Author:
- Robert Muggah and Birger Heldt
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute (IPI)
- Abstract:
- The purpose of the second International Expert Forum, "Mitigating the Consequences of Violent Conflict: What Works and What Does Not?," which was held at IPI on June 6, 2012, was to take stock of the consequences of ongoing violent conflict and means to prevent and reduce them, including peacekeeping operations and special envoys. The ambition was to identify patterns and formulate lessons learned and policy implications in the short, medium, and long term. The forum was divided into three sessions: mapping the trends and causes of violence against civilians; mapping the challenges and impact of peacekeeping operations; and mapping the challenges and impact of special envoys.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Crime, Peace Studies, and United Nations
515. Post-Asad Syria: Opportunity or Quagmire?
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- U.S. policy toward the continued rule of Syrian President Bashar al- Asad is partly based on the impact his rule has had in Syria. Asad's fall might not bring improvement for the Syrian people. But the argument that Asad, odious as he may be, provides stability now looks less and less convincing. Whether Asad stays or falls, the current Syrian unrest could have profound implications on the Middle East in at least four ways: the impact on Iran, Asad's closest strategic partner; the perception of the power of the United States and its allies; the stability of neighboring states; and the impact on Israel. The more Asad falls on hard times, the more Tehran has to scramble to prevent damage to its image with the “Arab street” and to its close ally, Lebanese Hizballah. Asad's overthrow is by no means assured, and U.S. instruments to advance that objective are limited. The U.S. Government decision to call for his overthrow seems to have rested on a judgment that the prospects for success were good and the payoff in the event of success would be high.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil War, Government, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
516. Georgian Dream or Nightmare? Transition of power poses great challenges for Georgia and its foreign relations
- Author:
- Teemu Sinkkonen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- The victory of the Georgian Dream Coalition (GDC) over the United National Movement (UNM) has brought pluralism into Georgian policymaking. Until the power shifts from the President to the Prime Minister in 2013, the country will be led by an awkward dual power. New leadership offers great opportunities for Georgia. It can improve its democratic system and economic growth and establish a dialogue with Russia and the breakaway districts of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This would alleviate the frozen conflict and tense security dilemma on the boundary lines. If the transition of power does not go well, there will be prolonged power struggles that could cripple the policymaking and cast Georgia back to pre-Saakashvili times. Saakashvili's UNM is still a very significant player in Georgian politics and it is important for the GDC and the UNM to find a way to cooperate. In order to smooth the fragile transition period, Georgia needs special support and attention.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Development, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
517. Israel and Hamas: Fire and Ceasefire in a New Middle East
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- There they went again–or did they? The war between Israel and Hamas had all the hallmarks of a tragic movie watched several times too many: airstrikes pounding Gaza, leaving death and destruction in their wake; rockets launched aimlessly from the Strip, spreading terror on their path; Arab states expressing outrage at Israel's brute force; Western governments voicing understanding for its exercise of self-defence. The actors were faithful to the script: Egypt negotiated a ceasefire, the two protagonists claimed victory, civilians bore the losses.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Islam
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Egypt
518. Sri Lanka: Tamil Politics and the Quest for a Political Solution
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Sri Lankan government’s refusal to negotiate seriously with Tamil leaders or otherwise address legitimate Tamil and Muslim grievances is increasing ethnic tensions and damaging prospects for lasting peace. The administration, led by the Sri Lanka Freedom Party of Mahinda Rajapaksa, has refused to honour agreements with the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), broke n promises to world leaders and not implemented constitutional provisions for minimal devolution of power to Tamil-speaking areas of the north and east. Militarisation and discriminatory economic development in Tamil and Muslim areas are breeding anger and increasing pressure on moderate Tamil leaders. Tamil political parties need to remain patient and keep to their moderate course, while reaching out more directly to Muslims, Upcountry Tamils and Sinhalese. International actors should press the government more effectively for speedy establishment of an elected provincial council and full restoration of civilian government in the north, while insisting that it commence serious negotiations with elected Tamil representatives from the north and east.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Sri Lanka
519. Sudan: Major Reform or More War
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The “Sudan Problem” has not gone away with the South's secession. Chronic conflict, driven by concentration of power and resources in the centre, continues to plague the country. The solution is a more inclusive government that addresses at least some of the peripheries' grievances, but pledges to transform governance remain unfulfilled. A key hurdle – though not the only one – is President Bashir, who has further concentrated authority in a small circle of trusted officials and is unwilling to step aside. Many hope for regime change via coup but have not considered the dangers. The goal should be managed transition to a government that includes, but is not dominated by his National Congress Party (NCP). He might be willing to go along if he concludes greater disorder or even a coup is growing more likely, but only if the right incentives are in place. The international community should contribute to these provided a credible and inclusive transitional government, a meaningful national dialogue on a new constitution and a roadmap for permanent change in how Sudan is governed are first put firmly in train.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Regime Change, Insurgency, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
520. Terrorism in Perspective: An Assessment of 'Jihad Project' Trends in Indonesia
- Author:
- Julie Chernov Hwang
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The face of extremism in Indonesia has changed dramatically over the past decade. While the security threat from Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) and other Salafi-Jihadist groups remains, it has diminished significantly from its heyday in the early 2000s. With many hardline leaders now in prison or dead and current mainstream leaders reluctant to support terror attacks, violence as a means to establish an Islamic state appears to be losing favor in militant circles. New followers continue to be radicalized through a number of channels, but there are also former radicals who are disengaging as they grow disillusioned with movement tactics and leadership, as they develop new relationships, and as their priorities shift. The organized, large-scale bombings have declined, largely in response to a changing security environment. Small-scale attacks and targeted assassinations are still prevalent, but these are often the actions of small splinter groups or unaffiliated individuals. Within JI itself, support for terror attacks on Indonesian soil is increasingly a minority-held view.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia