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391. The North Caucasus: The Challenges of Integration (III), Governance, Elections, Rule of Law

Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Armed conflict in the North Caucasus is the most violent in Europe today. At least 1,225 people were its victims in 2012 (7 00 killed, 525 wounded), and at least 242 were killed and 253 wounded in the first six months of 2013. The violence is greatest in Dagestan, then in Chechnya and Ingushetia, and the latter situation deteriorated in 2012. Unresolved disputes over territory, administrative boundaries, land and resources are important root causes of the violence, along with ethnic and religious tensions, the state's incapacity to ensure fair political representation, rule of law, governance and economic growth. The region's internal fragmentation and insufficient integration with the rest of the Russian Federation contribute to the political and social alienation of its residents.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, Territorial Disputes, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Caucasus

392. Ambiguous endings: Middle East regional security in the wake of the Arab Uprisings and the Syrian civil war

Author:
Helle Malmvig
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The Middle East regional security order is under rapid transformation. The Arab Uprisings and the Syrian War are changing not only the relationship between state and societies, but also some of the region's core norms and historical divisions. This report analyses key changes in regional security order the Middle East in the period after 2010. It identifies five key issues where regional order is changing: State-society relations Relations with the West and foreign policy posturing The impact of the Iran-Syria –Hezbollah Axis (the Resistance Front) and radical-moderate divide The Sunni-Shia rift and the rise of identity politics The Saudi-Qatar rivaling, and the role of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil War, Islam, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, Syria, and Qatar

393. A Turkish Perspective on Security Issues in the Mediterranean

Author:
Şadi Ergüvenç
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
The Mediterranean is where the atmosphere of mutual distrust, fear and polarization prevail. Arab Israeli dispute and Turkish Greek differences over the Aegean and Cyprus impede efforts for developing mutual confidence and co operation. Recently, economic and financial crises and the “Arab Risings” have brought along more reasons for concern. Islamophobia and racism versus Islamic jihadism increase the risk of confrontation. Turkey together with Spain appeals for an “Alliance of Civilizations” and exploits its double identity, European and Muslim, through a proactive and multilateral poli cy for finding peaceful solutions to chronic regional solutions. Greece and Greek Cypriot governments should refrain from unilateral attempts to declare maritime borders.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Islam, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Arabia

394. Eve Geri Dönüş

Author:
Müge Dalkıran
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
The Voluntary Repatriation Program to Afghanistan assisted by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, which started in 2002, is the largest return program in the modern history. Whereas over 5,8 million Afghan refugees have returned to Afghanistan between 2002 and 2013, 4,7 million of them participated in the Voluntary Repatriation Program. Being the asylum fatigue countries, Iran and Pakistan are the main host countries conducting this program together with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. This paper examines the Voluntary Repatriation Program to Afghanistan in the light of the situation in Pakistan and Iran.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iran, South Asia, Central Asia, and United Nations

395. Managing Intractable Conflicts: Lessons from Moldova and Cyprus

Author:
Mensur Akgün
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
Some would argue that the once violent inter-communal conflict in Cyprus has transformed through the decades into a comfortable status quo that has enabled the main stakeholders, and everyone else directly or indirectly influenced by the problem, to take advantage of the situation on the ground, which has in turn developed a desire to intentionally protract the comfortable conflict. Yet others would claim that the number of failed attempts to agree on a comprehensive solution acceptable by all parties have diminished the quality of life on the island and have become a chronic headache not only for the locals, but also for the international community. Because of these reasons, one could rightfully ask why would the fruitless search for a resolution to the Cyprus conflict be chosen as an exemplar case study and source of inspiration for generating creative ideas aiming to help solve other disputes around the world, specifically the one regarding the territory of Moldova.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Islam, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Moldova and Cyprus

396. Cooperation from Crisis? Regional Responses to Humanitarian Emergencies

Author:
Walter Kemp, Jérémie Labbé, and Lilianne Fan
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
As the situation in Syria continues to deteriorate, could the humanitarian crisis afflicting the country and its neighbors provide an entryway for regional cooperation? This policy paper examines how regional responses to humanitarian crises have succeeded or failed to meet humanitarian objectives in order to inform approaches to contemporary crises. It also assesses whether such regional responses contributed to strengthening regional integration and cooperation, paving the way for increased regional stability and an improved capacity to respond to emergencies. The report explores two different humanitarian crises: the war in the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s and Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 2008. Examining the ways in which countries in each region and regional organizations addressed humanitarian needs, it draws a number of lessons that could be applied in contemporary crises: Regional ownership over the response is crucial, but not necessarily spontaneous. External actors can usefully contribute through a balanced mix of pressure and technical support. Preexisting regional organizations can provide a valuable institutional framework on which to build the response. An approach that focuses on the specific needs of the most vulnerable individuals can help to depoliticize discussions while strengthening trust among regional stakeholders. Complementary policy-level and expert-level processes can equip the response with both political commitment and regular working relationships for addressing tangible needs.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Humanitarian Aid, Islam, Regional Cooperation, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, Yugoslavia, Syria, and Myanmar

397. Five Pillars of a Successful Transition in Afghanistan Post 2014

Author:
Khalid Aziz
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Most of the conditions for a successful transition into a stable Afghanistan would require appropriate bureaucratic and institutional mechanisms to ensure that the momentum for change is harnessed and that timely follow-ups take place. The major parties with stakes in the security of Afghanistan will need a roadmap and a framework for achieving the policy outcomes identified in this policy brief.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

398. Women in Conflict Mediation: Why It Matters

Author:
Andrea Ó Súilleabháin and Marie O'Reilly
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
Traditional approaches to international conflict mediation—in which statesmen hammer out agreements between governments, or between governments and well-defined rebel movements—are falling short in the face of 21st century violence. Interstate conflict has decreased dramatically, and today one off civil wars with clearly defined parties are relatively rare: 90 percent of civil wars occur in countries already affected by conflict. Despite international efforts to mediate and implement peace agreements, between a quarter and a half of all civil wars recur within five years.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Gender Issues, Peace Studies, War, and Peacekeeping

399. Armenia and Azerbaijan: A Season of Risks

Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Confrontation, low-intensity but volatile, between Azerbaijan and Armenia has entered a period of heightened sensitivity. Peace talks on Nagorno-Karabakh bogged down in 2011, accelerating an arms race and intensifying strident rhetoric. Terms like “Blitzkrieg'', “pre-emptive strike'' and ''total war” have gained currency with both sides' planners. An immediate concern is military miscalculation, with implications that could far exceed those of a localised post-Soviet frozen conflict, as the South Caucasus, a region where big powers meet and compete, is now also a major energy corridor. Clashes increasingly occur along the Azerbaijani-Armenian frontier far from Nagorno-Karabakh, the conflict's original focus. Tensions have also spread to areas along the border with the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhichevan where Azerbaijani and Turkish exercised in July. A subsequent firefight produced casualties, and Armenia staged its own war games near the Azerbaijan border in September. Vigorous international engagement is needed to lessen chances of violent escalation during coming weeks and months.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, International Cooperation, and War
Political Geography:
Caucasus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

400. Ceasefires sans peace process in Myanmar: The Shan State Army, 1989–2011

Author:
Tin Maung Maung Than and Samara Yawnghwe
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Resolving the enduring internal conflict between the central state and the ethnic nationalities in Myanmar is at the heart of the continued development of the country as a whole. However, a solution may require flexibility when it comes to defining the territorial integrity of the country and its national identity. The 1962 coup, which implemented a policy of unification through a centralised authority backed by military force, has had long-lasting consequences in the form of fragmentation and disunity that have tended to be framed as 'rebellion' or 'insurgency' by the central government. The problem of how to turn ceasefires into a successful and genuine peace process is one that Myanmar urgently faces today.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Ethnic Conflict, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar