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1711. The Burundi Rebellion and the Ceasefire Negotiations

Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Prospects are still weak for a ceasefire agreement in Burundi that includes all rebel factions. Despite the Arusha agreement in August 2000 and installation of a transition government on 1 November 2001, the warring parties, the Burundi army and the various factions of the Party for the Liberation of the Hutu People/National Liberation Forces (PALIPEHUTU-FNL) and of the National Council for the Defense of Democracy/Defense Forces of Democracy (CNDD-FDD), are still fighting. Neither side has been able to gain a decisive military advantage, although the army recently claimed several important victories.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa and Burundi

1712. The International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda: The Countdown

Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Il reste officiellement un peu plus de cinq ans au Tribunal pénal international pour le Rwanda (TPIR) pour achever le mandat qui lui a été confié, en novembre 1994, par le Conseil de sécurité des Nations unies. Le TPIR se trouve donc exactement à mi-parcours de son mandat. Depuis un an et demi, plusieurs nouveaux procès ont été initiés. Toutefois malgré cette amélioration significative marquée par un fort regain d'activité, le Tribunal d'Arusha n'a pas établi, les priorités judiciaires qui lui permettraient de remplir son mandat avant 2008. En mai 2001, ICG publiait un premier rapport bilan des activités du TPIR intitulé: "L'urgence de juger". Cette urgence reste, malheureusement, toujours d'actualité.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Genocide, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa and Rwanda

1713. Dialogue or Destruction? Organising for Peace as the War in Sudan Escalates

Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sudan's civil war, already one of the deadliest conflicts since World War II, has entered its most destructive phase to date. Oil revenues have allowed the government to purchase increasingly lethal weapons, more effectively pursue population-clearing operations, and expand the use of its greatest comparative advantage, air power. The rebel Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) has greater manpower to deploy on multiple fronts, has also acquired more sophisticated arms, and is engaging government forces in more intense conventional battles.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Sudan and North Africa

1714. Zimbabwe: What Next?

Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In the aftermath of the deeply flawed March 2002 presidential election, Zimbabwe has dropped off the radar screen of most policy-makers and media but its crisis is deepening: the ruling ZANU-PF party and the government are systematically using violence to intimidate the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and civil society in order to punish and compel them to accept the results; the economy is further deteriorating as foreign investment and food both become scarce commodities; with regional drought compounding the land seizure crisis, UN agencies warn of possible famine; and as the opposition considers mass protests, the prospect of serious internal conflict is becoming imminent, with grave implications for the stability of the wider Southern African region.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

1715. Burundi After Six Months Of Transition: Continuing The War Or Winning Peace?

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Fourteen months after the signing of the Arusha framework agreement, the Burundi transition government was sworn in on November 1, 2001, in the presence of the leaders of Nigeria, Tanzania, Malawi, Rwanda and Zambia, Nelson Mandela and a host of other African and international delegations. The new government comprised twenty-six ministers representing majority Hutu (G7) and majority Tutsi (G10) political parties, all signatories to the Arusha accords of August 2000 in Tanzania. A few days before the swearing-in ceremony, several political leaders, including Jean Minani, president of the FRODEBU party, returned from exile to join the government, after guarantees for their protection were provided by the presence of seven hundred South African soldiers. The deal struck between Minani's FRODEBU and Pierre Buyoya's UPRONA, which was formalised by the accord on the transition government of 23 July 2001, made the two parties by far the biggest beneficiaries of power-sharing. The transition phase was slated to last 36 months, with a mid-term transfer of power in May 2003, when the current vice-president, Domitien Ndayizeye of FRODEBU, will replace the president of UPRONA PIERRE Buyoya.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa, Tanzania, Nigeria, Rwanda, Burundi, Zambia, and Malawi

1716. Storm Clouds Over Sun City: The Urgent Need To Recast The Congolese Peace Process

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
After seven weeks of negotiations at Sun City, a partial agreement was reached on 19 April 2002 between Jean-Pierre Bemba's MLC (Mouvement pour la libération du Congo) and the government of Joseph Kabila. The agreement represents the end of the Inter-Congolese Dialogue in the context of the Lusaka peace accords. However confusion reigns. The negotiations are not complete and the future of the Democratic Republic of Congo remains uncertain.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

1717. Somalia: Countering Terrorism in a Failed State

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
For the first time since the last UN mission left the country in 1995, there is considerable international interest in Somalia, centred on the possibility that the country may become part of the global war against terrorism. The U.S. government suspects that al-Qaeda may have used Somalia as a staging area or safe haven in the past and remains concerned – though less than in the immediate aftermath of the 11 September 2001 attacks – that it could do so again because of the country's highly fragmented internal security situation.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, Terrorism, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, United Nations, North Africa, and Somalia

1718. Central Asia: Border Disputes and Conflict Potential

Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
For the past decade Russia, China, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan have all been involved in high stakes negotiations to define their respective borders. Strong-arm politics, economic pressures, shadowy backroom deals, nationalist sentiments, public dissatisfaction and an environment of mutual mistrust have marked this process. The resolution of border issues peacefully and transparently would have a positive impact on regional security, economic cooperation, ethnic relations and efforts to combat drug trafficking and religious extremism. But progress has been slow, and no immediate breakthrough can be seen in an all too often antagonistic process that is defining the new map of Central Asia.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan

1719. Capturing the Moment: Sudan's Peace Process in the Balance

Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sudan's window of opportunity threatens to become a missed opportunity if the peace process is not revitalised in the near future. Escalation of fighting around the oil fields, increasing use by the government of helicopter gunships against civilian as well as military targets, and indecision surrounding the nature of wider international engagement all put at risk Sudan's best chance for peace since the latest phase of civil war began nearly nineteen years ago. The parties continue to signal that they are ready to negotiate seriously. The international community, and in particular the United States, must seize this opportunity to revitalise the peace process before the two sides recommit themselves to resolving Africa's longest conflict on the battlefield.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, Sudan, and North Africa

1720. Courting Disaster: The Misrule of Law in Bosnia Herzegovina

Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The law does not yet rule in Bosnia Herzegovina. What prevail instead are nationally defined politics, inconsistency in the application of law, corrupt and incompetent courts, a fragmented judicial space, half-baked or half-implemented reforms, and sheer negligence. Bosnia is, in short, a land where respect for and confidence in the law and its defenders is weak.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe