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1691. As Mitzna Chooses, Labor's Prospects Recede

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Earlier this week, Israel's Labor Party leader Amram Mitzna announced that he would not look to resume a broad coalition government with the Likud Party following the country's upcoming January 28 election, a crucial decision that dropped Labor from 24 to 20 seats (according to today's Yediot Aharonot poll) and that may have sealed the election for Likud. Mitzna's decision halted Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's slide of the last several weeks in the wake of a vote-buying scandal that imperiled his electoral bloc's grip on a Knesset majority.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1692. In Israeli Right-Left Divide, Center May Hold the Balance of Power

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The slide in the polls of Ariel Sharon's Likud Party over the last six weeks has been rather dramatic, transforming the character of the campaign from an expected Sharon landslide into a closer contest. In Thursday's Yediot Ahronot-Dahaf poll, Likud dropped from 40 to 28 seats in the 120-member Knesset, while Amram Mitzna's Labor Party edged up to 24 seats from 22. Sharon's losses stem directly from the swirl of Likud election corruption allegations, beginning with low-level charges of vote buying — illegal activity that may have helped catapult Sharon's son Omri onto the parliamentary list. The latest charges, denied by Sharon, surround a $1.5 million loan that the prime minister borrowed from a South African businessman friend, Cyril Kern, to pay back illegal campaign contributions in 1999. Sharon still clings to the hope that his denials will halt his party's slide downward, while Mitzna is finding new hope in the prospect that a drop in support for Likud will lead voters to take a second look at his candidacy.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

1693. Asylum Migration and Implications for Countries of Origin

Author:
Khalid Koser and Nicholas Van Hear
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to synthesize what is known about the influence of asylum migration on countries of origin. It combines an analysis of data, a review of the literature and empirical examples from our own research. In the first section we consider the effects of the absence of refugees on countries of origin, focusing on the scale of movements, the characteristics of refugees, where they go and their length of time in exile. In the second section, we review the evidence about the influence of asylum-seekers and refugees on their country of origin from exile. Third, we consider the implications for countries of origin of the return of asylum-seekers and refugees. The conclusion acknowledges the limited state of current knowledge and draws out some policy implications.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Development, Human Welfare, and Migration

1694. Mirror Images of Religious Fanaticism: India and Pakistan

Author:
Ehsan Ahrari
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
Two heartrending bylines from South Asia,reported in the New York Times on February 23, 2003, made me think how much India and Pakistan are mirror-imaging one another when it comes to the rising spirals of religious intolerance, indeed, fanaticism. The chief focus of this fanaticism in India has been on Muslims, and to a lesser extent, on Christians. In the case of Pakistan, religious intolerance involves Christians as well the followers of another sect of Islam, Shias. The byline from New Delhi read, "Hindu Group in India demands a temple," and the one from Islamabad read, "Gunmen kill seven worshippers at a mosque in Pakistan."
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
South Asia

1695. In the Shadow of a Cease-fire: The Impacts of Small Arms Availability and Misuse in Sri Lanka

Author:
Chris Smith
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Sri Lanka appears to be entering the final chapter of the 20-year civil war between the Government of Sri Lanka and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Although it may be too early to assess, and the peace process is currently stalled, it does seem that the LTTE is more serious about a sustained peace process than at any time since the violence erupted in 1983.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
Asia and Sri Lanka

1696. Beyond the Kalashnikov: Small Arms Production, Exports, and Stockpiles in the Russian Federation

Author:
Anna Matveeva, Maria Haug, and Maxim Pyadushkin
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
This paper analyzes various aspects of the small arms issue in the Russian Federation. There are a number of reasons why a specific study of Russian small arms issues is helpful for policy-makers and researchers interested in small arms and light weapons (SALW). Russia is one of the world's major producers and exporters of SALW. The most successful and famous military assault rifle, the Kalashnikov, originated in the former Soviet Union. While the original rifle is no longer produced in Russia, its derivatives are still in production. The Russian Federation is also a country dealing with internal problems where the availability of small arms exacerbates the situation. These include regions of conflict, such as Chechnya, or problems of crime and personal security in big cities such as Moscow. Various methods have been used to retrieve illegally held small arms from Russian society, including regional buy-back programmes.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
Russia and Soviet Union

1697. Demand, Stockpiles, and Social Controls: Small Arms in Yemen

Author:
Derek B. Miller
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
This paper draws strong conclusions about the dynamics of stockpiles and holdings, demand factors for small arms, and the significance of social controls on individual and community behaviour in Yemen.Using a new method, devised uniquely for this study, to estimate small arms availability at the local level, it is believed that Yemen has between 6-9 million small arms, most of which are from the former Eastern Bloc countries or China, with fewer numbers of various makes and models from other countries, some dating back to the early nineteenth century. This dramatically reduces the popular estimate of Yemen having 50 million small arms. However, this revised estimate includes only an educated guess as to the actual number of weapons in state stockpiles, as well as those in the hands of tribal sheikhs. Though severely reduced, this new figure does not undermine Yemen's status as one of the world's most heavily armed societies, but certainly not the most armed, when one considers both per capita weaponry and their high level of lethality.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

1698. Small Arms in the Pacific

Author:
Philip Alpers and Conor Twyford
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
This study examines a wide range of small arms-related issues in 20 nations of the southern Pacific. It investigates the status of existing firearm legislation, the extent of legal stockpiles and illicit trade, and the socio-economic impacts of armed conflict on Pacific communities. Case histories examine more closely the disarmament process in Bougainville and the Solomon Islands, along with the widespread disruption wrought with small arms in Fiji and Papua New Guinea. Current initiatives to combat small arms trafficking in the region are also examined.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific, Island, and Guinea

1699. Refugees and the Myth of the Borderless World

Author:
William Maley, Greg Fry, Alan Dupont, Jean-Pierre Fonteyne, James Jupp, and Thuy Do
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian National University Department of International Relations
Abstract:
Refugees are quintessentially victims of the states system. If the moral justification of the territorial state is to provide an authority accountable for the well-being of a designated citizenry, then the failure of individual states to discharge this task creates a responsibility on those who otherwise benefit from the system of states to aid those who suffer persecution in the territories in which they are nominally owed a primary duty of care. The number of refugees and other displaced persons in the world is extremely small—roughly 0.3 per cent of the world's population—but each is a precious being, and the way they are treated is a measure not of their worth, but of the moral capacity of those who are in a position to come to their assistance. Life chances in the present world order are to a significant degree arbitrarily determined by the accident of birthplace. Afghans and Iraqis, strongly represented in the world's present refugee population, are not refugees as punishment for their own failings. And ministers and bureaucrats in Western countries, typically enjoying lives of considerable luxury, are rarely well-off in recognition of their outstanding moral virtues; many simply had the good luck to be born in the right countries. If there is a global refugee crisis, it is not in terms of the number of refugees, but in terms of the willingness of wealthy and prosperous peoples to reach out to them. In the following paragraphs, I shall do three things. First, I offer brief overviews of the meaning of 'refugee' and of the current state of the world's refugees. Second, I outline the framework of institutions and measures which has evolved for the management of refugee protection and refugee needs. In conclusion, I offer some observations on the challenges which the refugee regime faces, and on the steps which need to be taken to improve the refugees' positions.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

1700. Global Challenges: Beating the Odds

Author:
P.J. Simmons
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The global to-do list has never been more daunting. New arteries for transport, trade, finance, and communications require constantly updated rules. Freer, faster movement across borders necessitates filters to separate terrorists from traders and levees to contain infectious disease, pollution, invasive species, and financial disruption. Once-sovereign responsibilities such as poverty, child labor, and human rights shift to become international moral concerns. Technologies of literally world-shaking power—capable of destroying humans en masse, altering Earth's ecology, or upsetting atmospheric stability—create a set of truly global issues.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, and Government