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1601. Assessing Sharon's Gaza Settlement Evacuation Proposal

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Less than a year ago, Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon rejected the idea of a unilateral pullback from Gaza, telling Labor Party leader Amram Mitzna that isolated settlements such as Netzarim were equal to Tel Aviv in his eyes. Last week, however, Sharon -- a leading architect of Israel's settlement movement -- declared his intention to authorize plans for a unilateral evacuation of at least seventeen of the twenty Israeli settlements in Gaza. Although some remain unsure whether the prime minister will follow through on this pledge, skepticism regarding Sharon's intentions should be balanced by other considerations.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Gaza, and Arab Countries

1602. A Possible Path to Change in US-Iran Relations

Author:
Mark Edmond Clark
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
In 1999, I visited Belgrade one month before the start of Operation ALLIED FORCE as a guest of the Yugoslav Ministry of Foreign Affairs to hear the perspectives of key officials on the possibility of a conflict between Yugoslavia and NATO. I heard a singular perspective that NATO would not use force and threats to do so were used only to get the regime of Slobodan Milosevic to respond to diplomatic efforts by the US and EU. There was simply a refusal to recognize that the threat of attack from NATO was real.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, and Yugoslavia

1603. Minimal Investments, Minimal Results: The Failure of Security Policy in Afghanistan

Author:
Michael Bhatia, Kevin Lanigan, and Philip Wilkinson
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
Prime Minister Tony Blair's 2003 declaration that the international community “will not walk away from” Afghanistan missed the real question: When will the international community really walk into Afghanistan, and make the necessary commitments and investments that will give the Afghan people a reasonable chance at building a peaceful and stable country?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Asia

1604. The United Nations, the Cold War, and After: A Lost Opportunity?

Author:
Christopher D. O'Sullivan
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
The conclusion of the Cold War between 1989-1991 opened new horizons for the United Nations and created expectations that the UN would emerge from the margins of world events to the focus of world politics. But many events since then -- in Somalia, Rwanda, Bosnia, and Iraq -- have undermined confidence in international institutions. A history of the UN's activities since the end of the East-West conflict conjures up names of recent infamy, such as Sarajevo, Mogadishu, Kigali, and Srebrenica, and revisits images of failure and impotence in the face of violence. These crises undermined much of the optimism that greeted the end of the Cold War at the United Nations. The founding dream in 1945 of a community of nations defending human rights and promoting collective security still seems as far from being realized as it did during the height of the Cold War.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Cold War, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Iraq, Bosnia, Rwanda, and Somalia

1605. Small Arms and Light Weapons Production in Eastern, Central, and Southeast Europe

Author:
Yudit Kiss
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
With the accession of ten states to the European Union (EU) in May 2004, Eastern Europe strode firmly into the international spotlight. A few months earlier, Bulgaria and Romania had joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), further extending the membership of Eastern, Central, and Southeast Europe in the alliance. These developments support the region's ongoing policy of integration into the West and its emergence as a socio-political landscape entirely distinct from that imposed by the Warsaw Treaty Organization (WTO) until its demise in 1991. Not surprisingly, these drastic changes are vividly reflected in the national defence industries of the region.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
Europe and North Atlantic

1606. Kyrgyzstan: A Small Arms Anomaly in Central Asia?

Author:
S. Neil MacFarlane and Stina Torjesen Torjesen
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Central Asia is often portrayed as a hotbed of potential conflict. With this report, the Small Arms Survey seeks to determine whether the Kyrgyz Republic, by virtue of its location, should indeed be grouped with its friction-prone neighbours. Weak state structures, a history of ethnic tension, inequality, and poverty – features that characterize the Kyrgyz state – are factors that normally fuel the proliferation of arms. The ripple effects of the fragile situation in Afghanistan are also expected to have effects on Central Asian countries. This in-depth study has found, however, that small arms are less of a problem in Kyrgyzstan than commonly assumed: few families own arms; demand is limited; and trafficking is modest. While the proliferation of small arms may pose a serious threat in countries such as Afghanistan and Tajikistan, this assertion cannot be applied to Central Asia as a whole. This report highlights the need for the disaggregation of regional generalizations and seeks to explain why Kyrgyzstan is different from its southern neighbours.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Tajikistan

1607. SIPRI Yearbook 2004: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security (Pocket-size Summary Edition)

Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
There were 19 major armed conflicts in 18 locations in 2003. The number of major armed conflicts and the number of conflict locations were slightly lower in 2003 than in 2002, when there were 20 major armed conflicts in 19 locations. Four of the 19 conflicts in 2003 were in Africa and eight in Asia. In the 14-year post-cold war period, there were 59 different major armed conflicts in 48 different locations. The number of major armed conflicts in 2003 was the lowest for the entire period except for 1997, when there were 18 major armed conflicts. Two interstate conflicts were active in 2003: the conflict between Iraq and the multinational coalition; and the conflict between India and Pakistan. The majority of the major armed conflicts today are intra- state. The persistence of intra-state wars, and their resistance to quick solutions, was reflected in 2003 by the continuation of the Colombian and Israeli–Palestinian conflicts. The potential for sudden and rapid escalation of intensity was evident in conflicts such as Burundi, Côte d'Ivoire, Indonesia, Liberia and Sudan (Darfur). The current international focus on the threat of terrorism is affecting the strategies, intensity and course of intra-state conflicts such as those in Indonesia and the Philippines. Outside actors cannot enforce a quick peace, as demonstrated in Afghanistan, Côte d'Ivoire, Iraq and Sri Lanka. The year demonstrated that intra-state conflicts can be brought to an end only through sustained and comprehensive external engagement. As illustrated by the peace agreements in 2003 in Liberia and Sudan, external assistance, mediation and support are vital to help bring warring parties to a negotiated end to conflict.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Africa, Sudan, Indonesia, Middle East, India, Asia, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Colombia, Liberia, and Burundi

1608. CIAO Iraq Special Section: The Year in Review

Author:
Sean Costigan, Adam Mausner, and Siheun Song
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
One year into the occupation of Iraq the United States and its Coalition partners remain in discussions over the country's fate. The deliberations have generally focused on the involvement of the United Nations, the schedule for handing over sovereignty to a democratic Iraqi government, and ultimately what the Iraqi government should resemble. The terms of the debate have regularly been sidelined by unforeseen events, including the recent rebellion in Fallujah, Shiite opposition in the south, grandstanding by local politicians, demagoguery, defection of Iraqi police and security forces and the wavering of Coalition partners, to name but a few. While progress is clearly being made in some areas, there are numerous signs that Iraq may not be ready for the June 30 transition of power. The top U.S. administrator in Iraq, L. Paul Bremer, has suggested that by June 30 Iraqi security forces simply will not be up to the task of defending against insurgents. Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld is more optimistic and remains committed to the June 30 deadline.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and United Nations

1609. Capacity Building in Post-Conflict Countries in Africa: A Summary of Lessons of Experience from Mozambique, Rwanda, Sierra Leone and Uganda

Author:
The African Capacity Building Foundation
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
The paper presents a Summary of a Report of a Study on Reconstruction and Capacity Building efforts in four Post-Conflict African Countries, namely, Mozambique, Rwanda, Sierra Leone and Uganda. The main objective of the study is to draw lessons that could provide a guide to policies, strategies and instruments for post-conflict capacity-building initiatives by the Foundation. The four country studies highlighted the fact that the root causes of conflicts are different in different countries at different times and that they require context-specific approaches to bring countries back onto the path of peace and development.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Reconstruction, Peace, Post-Conflict, and Capacity Building
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and Rwanda

1610. The North Korean Nuclear Crisis: Four-plus-two - an idea whose time has come

Author:
Peter Van Ness
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian National University Department of International Relations
Abstract:
The six-party negotiations on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's (DPRK) nuclear programs, held in Beijing in August 2003, concluded with nothing more than the expectation that the six participating nations would meet again—no time or place was announced. Meanwhile, North Korea threatened to escalate tensions further by testing a nuclear device, while the US remained undecided about how to proceed.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, and North Korea