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2. Push vs. Pull Factors of Capital Flows Revisited: A Cross-country Analysis
- Author:
- Tae Soo Kang and Kyunghun Kim
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- Capital market integration contributes to economic growth and it can be more beneficial for emerging market economies (EMEs, hereafter) at their early stages of development where the capital is relatively insufficient. An open capital market also enables investor to share the country-specific risks by holding foreign assets. However, there are also some negative side effects of capital market integration. Financial shocks originating in the center coun-try can be quickly propagated through the integrated financial market. The Global Financial Crisis (GFC, hereafter) is a good example of the contagion of the financial crisis. Volatile cross-border capital inflows and outflows nega-tively affect financial stability, which eventually lowers economic growth by causing financial crises. Despite of these negative side effects, capital market integration has been an inevitable long-term trend for many EMEs over the past few decades (Aizenman et al. 2010). There have been continuous capital flows to EMEs, which started even before GFC and this trend has been more pronounced during the U.S. zero-interest rate period (Ahmed and Zlate 2014). Though some monetary authorities in EMEs tried to moderate the procyclicality of credit flows by implementing policy instruments such as capital controls or macro-prudential policy measures after GFC (Kim and Mehrotra 2018), the common factors in the global financial market still play a crucial role in de-termining capital inflows to EMEs. The relationship between the global financial condition and its impact on capital inflows to EMEs, has been a long-debated issue. This issue concerns whether push or pull factors are the major determinant of capital flows. The push factor represents the common factor that exists in the global financial market or center countries, which influences capital inflows to peripheral countries. These factors are interest rates and GDP growth rates of advanced economies (AEs, hereafter), global risk factors such as VIX (S&P 500 Volatili-ty Index), and the commodity price index. The pull factor denotes domestic factors that attract funds from the global financial market to domestic finan-cial markets. These factors are domestic interest rates, domestic GDP growth rates, and other country-specific characteristics such as exchange rate regime, degree of the capital account openness, institutional quality, and stages of economic development. In previous literature, many scholars have found strong evidence for push factors being the major determinant of capital movement. The interest rates of mature economies and VIX are significant determinants of capital inflows to EMEs. However, there is only some evidence that higher domestic interest rates and higher domestic GDP growth rates pull capital from the center countries to individual EMEs (Koepke 2015). Related to this long-debated issue in academia, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome H. Powell recently stated, "... I will argue that, while global factors play an important role in influencing domestic financial conditions, the role of U.S. monetary policy is often exaggerated." With this statement, he also pointed out that the slowdown in capital inflows to EMEs which has been happening ever since 2011 has been mainly due to the narrowing of GDP gaps between AEs and EMEs, i.e., the recent decrease in capital in-flows to EMEs can be attributed to the decline in EMEs' GDP growth rates given the fact that the U.S. GDP growth rate has picked up. In this paper, we revisit this issue of push and pull factors of capital inflows. To this end, we consider the heterogeneity that exists in EMEs by dividing them into four subgroups. We investigate which is the main driver of capital inflows between push and pull factors across country groups. Categorizing subgroups is important for two reasons. First, EMEs are so heterogeneous that we make subgroups which share similar economic fundamentals by re-gions. Second, making subgroups across EMEs is an effective way to indi-rectly consider the regional contagion effect. With this cross-country analysis, we can figure out the differing effects of push and pull factors across country groups, and this can eventually lead to the development and implementation of appropriate policy instruments. Our empirical finding shows that the push and pull factors play a different role in determining capital inflows to AEs and EMEs. The major drivers of capital inflows to AEs are both push and pull factors, but push factors turn out to be the main determinant of capital inflows to EMEs. When EMEs are divided into four subgroups, we find sizable heterogeneity across subgroups. In Asian countries, both push and pull factors are significant, which is similar to AEs, but only U.S. interest rate plays a major role in Eastern Europe. Some pull factors are important in Latin American countries and other EMEs, but these are not robust to alternative empirical models and measures.
- Topic:
- Capital Flows, Economic Policy, Push Factor, and Pull Factor
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
3. Something for Nothing? How Growing Rent-seeking is at the Heart of America’s Economic Troubles
- Author:
- Lachlan Carey and Amn Nasir
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Woodrow Wilson School Journal of Public and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
- Abstract:
- The following paper studies three main questions: First, What is the association between increasing concentration and labor and profit shares? Second, is this effect different across sectors? Third, is this effect uniform across advanced economies? The paper finds that while there is a negative relationship between concentration and labor share and a positive relationship between concentration and profit share, the result is more pronounced in the United States than in similar advanced European economies. Moreover, the results are stronger for the manufacturing sector than for the services sector. The paper concludes that this evidence suggests that deviations from perfect competition are likely explained by declining competition in the U.S., whereas these secular trends, such as heterogeneous technology adoption and the declining price of capital, are more likely at play in Europe. Consequently, the paper prioritizes pre-distribution over redistribution.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, Economy, Business, and Capital Flows
- Political Geography:
- United States of America and North America
4. Capital Controls and International Trade: An Industry Financial Vulnerability Perspective
- Author:
- Kevin Lai, Tao Wang, and David Xu
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Capital controls—or measures that governments take to restrict the amount of money that flows into and out of countries—pose significant challenges for firms that rely heavily on foreign financing to conduct business. This paper empirically evaluates effects of capital controls on trade across industries with varying levels of dependence on foreign capital. Mobilizing data on 99 countries from 1995 to 2014 across 27 industries, the authors find that industries more reliant on foreign capital tend to export much less in response to tightening of capital controls by exporting countries. Exports decline uniformly across all industries in response to tightening of capital controls by importing countries. The negative effects of capital controls on trade are less pronounced in countries with more advanced financial systems.
- Topic:
- Government, International Trade and Finance, Capital Flows, and Capital Controls
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
5. The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Capital Market Development in Botswana’s Economy
- Author:
- Koketso Molefhi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
- Abstract:
- The study examines the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock and bond markets development in Botswana using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)-Bounds Test. The results indicate that macroeconomic variables have an impact on capital market development in Botswana. In the short run, real output, money supply and inflation have a positive influence on the development of the stock market, while real exchange rate retards its development. Real output further supports the development of the stock market in the long run. For the bond market, only two variables, inflation rate and lending rate have positive and negative impact on the bond market in the long run respectively, while none of the variables influence the bond market in the short run. Policy implications include increased efforts by policy makers to increase money supply, gross domestic product for the development of stock market, while the bond market development requires a decrease in lending rates.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, Capital Flows, Macroeconomics, and Economic Development
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Botswana
6. The Cost of Holding Foreign Exchange Reserves
- Author:
- Eduardo Levy Yeyati and Eduardo Gómez
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Recent studies that have emphasized the costs of accumulating reserves for self-insurance purposes have overlooked two potentially important side-effects. First, the impact of the resulting lower spreads on the service costs of the stock of sovereign debt, which could substantially reduce the marginal cost of holding reserves. Second, when reserve accumulation reflects countercyclical LAW central bank interventions, the actual cost of reserves should be measured as the sum of valuation effects due to exchange rate changes and the local-to-foreign currency exchange rate differential (the inverse of a carry trade profit and loss total return flow), which yields a cost that is typically smaller than the one arising from traditional estimates based on the sovereign credit risk spreads. We document those effects empirically to illustrate that the cost of holding reserves may have been considerably smaller than usually assumed in both the academic literature and the policy debate.
- Topic:
- Financial Crisis, Exchange Rate Policy, International Reserves, and Capital Flows
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
7. How ETFs Amplify the Global Financial Cycle in Emerging Markets
- Author:
- Nathan Converse, Eduardo Levy Yeyati, and Tomas Williams
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Since the early 2000s exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have grown to become an important in- vestment vehicle worldwide. In this paper, we study how their growth affects the sensitivity of international capital flows to the global financial cycle. We combine comprehensive fund- level data on investor flows with a novel identification strategy that controls for unobservable time-varying economic conditions at the investment destination. For dedicated emerging mar- ket funds, we find that the sensitivity of investor flows to global financial conditions for equity (bond) ETFs is 2.5 (2.25) times higher than for equity (bond) mutual funds. In turn, we show that in countries where ETFs hold a larger share of financial assets, total cross-border equity flows and prices are significantly more sensitive to global financial conditions. We conclude that the growing role of ETFs as a channel for international capital flows amplifies the global financial cycle in emerging markets.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Global Political Economy, Capital Flows, and Mutual Funds
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and Global Markets
8. Contraband, Drug Trafficking and the Configuration of Institutional Circuits for their Protection in Mexico / Contrabando,tráficodedrogasylaconfiguracióndecircuitosinstitucionalesparasuprotecciónenMéxico
- Author:
- Carlos Antonio Flores Pérez
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
- Abstract:
- In this article analyses the evolution, throughout the XX century, of criminal networks that had participation in illicit trafficking goods and illegal psychoactive drugs- in the Mexican states of Nuevo León and Tamaulipas, in the border with Texas, United States. Based on the information contained in government documents found in the General Archive of the Nation (AGN) of Mexico, federal criminal courts of the United States and newspaper sources, I show the central role played by federal and state institutional actors to consolidate these networks and their illegal activities through the guarantee of impunity. These actors, along with their partners in the business and criminal fields, set up institutional circuits to protect such traffics and allow the integration of illicit capital in the formal economy.
- Topic:
- Crime, Narcotics Trafficking, Economy, and Capital Flows
- Political Geography:
- Central America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America
9. Conditional Pricing of Currency Risk in Africa's Equity Market
- Author:
- Odongo Kodongo and Kalu Ojah
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
- Abstract:
- In this paper, we sought to establish whether Africa’s volatile currencies drive equity risk premium. We use the stochastic discount factor (SDF) framework to estimate various conditional specifications of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model through generalized method of moments technique. Our results show strong evidence of conditional, time-varying currency risk premium in equity returns. Currency risk is also perceived by international investors as important in informing the equities pricing kernel. We also find evidence that international investors are worried about Africa’s small size equity markets and build anticipated low trading into their pricing calculus.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Global Political Economy, Economic growth, Capital Flows, Currency, and Profit
- Political Geography:
- Africa
10. Econometric Analysis of Gender and Labour Market Outcomes in Urban Cameroon
- Author:
- Christian Zamo Akono
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
- Abstract:
- In every country, gender disparities are observed in various aspects of daily life, the most visible ones being those related to labour market outcomes. This paper highlights the importance of the labour market related gender disparities in Cameroon with special focus on the relative contribution of identified determinants on unemployment duration, employment status and remuneration. Based on the 2010 Employment and the Informal Sector Survey by the National Institute of Statistics, both parametric and non-parametric analyses of unemployment durations have been used. They include probit model estimates for the choice of non-wage earner status, estimates of Mincer-type equations and various extensions of the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition. The results obtained can be summarized in three main points as follows. Firstly, women have longer periods of unemployment and are less likely to leave unemployment for a job than men. Results indicate that these gender disparities in exit probabilities from unemployment are due to differences in human capital endowments and to socioeconomic factors, which have a tendency of increasing women’s reservation wage. Also, unobserved heterogeneity with greater positive duration dependence for women is confirmed. Secondly, there are gender differences in probability transitions to either wage or non-wage employment with women being more likely to be self-employed. Of these gender differences, human capital endowment and job search methods account for 20.64% and 38.20%, respectively. The remaining part is due to unobserved factors. Thirdly, gender differences in labour market earnings are around 6% and 17% among wage and non-wage earners, respectively. Observable factors in wage equations account for only for 6% and 30% in the respective groups. These results suggest the formulation of several policies to reduce the observed differences. Some of these policies relate to the conception and implementation of vocational training targeting women and, to some extent, the setting up of programmes for relocating unemployed individuals to where employment opportunities are greater. Others relate to reducing the
- Topic:
- Economics, Gender Issues, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues, Economic growth, Capital Flows, and Macroeconomics
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Cameroon