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1. Mandating Food Insecurity: The Global Impacts of Rising Biofuel Mandates and Targets

Author:
Timothy A. Wise and Emily Cole
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
Expanding demand for biofuels, fed significantly by government policies mandating rising levels of consumption in transportation fuel, has been strongly implicated in food price increases and food price volatility most recently seen in 2008 and 2011-2012. First-generation biofuels, made from agricultural crops, divert food directly to fuel markets and divert land, water and other food-producing resources from their current or potential uses for production of feed for animals and food for human consumption. A key policy driver of biofuel consumption is government mandates to increase or maintain rates or levels of biofuel blends in transportation fuel, the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard and the E.U. Renewable Energy Directive being the most prominent cases. In this paper we assess the spread of such mandates and targets, finding that at least 64 countries now have such policies. We estimate the consumption increases implied by full implementation of such mandates in the seven countries/regions with the highest biofuel consumption, suggesting a 43% increase in first-generation biofuel consumption in 2025 over current levels. We compare this to even higher estimates from international agencies. We assess the likelihood of implementation in key countries and regions, which suggests that with reform, particularly in OECD countries, consumption growth could be slowed. We conclude with policy recommendations to reduce the mandate-driven expansion of first-generation biofuels and mitigate their negative social and environmental impacts.
Topic:
Agriculture, Food, Biofuels, Europe Union, and Chemical Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and North America

2. Is Brazil the Energy Power of the Future (and always will be)?

Author:
Claire Casey
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Americas Quarterly
Institution:
Council of the Americas
Abstract:
Brazil's pro-álcool (pro alcohol) policy, which for decades had sought to substitute gasoline with locally produced sugarcane ethanol—a goal once dismissed as folly—suddenly became a world model. Brazil was hailed as the "Saudi Arabia of biofuels," and massive investment plans were launched. That year, my firm, Garten-Rothkopf, published the first major study of global biofuels markets, investment, innovation, and infrastructure. We found that Brazil had the conditions for sustained global competitiveness in this nascent industry, but faced multiple hurdles. Seven years later, that industry is limping along—short on investment and unable to compete in its own domestic market. The unfulfilled promise of Brazilian ethanol reflects a broader tension in the country's energy policy, a tension that has plagued Brazil's new energy projects—from the exploitation of its massive pré-sal (pre-salt) oil reserves to its rich wind resources—and remains a factor in the development of new shale resources. Brazil can become a net exporter of energy. The abundance of its domestic energy resource wealth, both renewable and fossil, is extraordinary. Yet today, the Brazilian government faces energy supply challenges in both fuels and power, as it struggles with stagnant economic growth and a mix of energy policies that can only be called unsustainable.
Topic:
Biofuels
Political Geography:
Brazil and Saudi Arabia

3. The EU regime on biofuels in transport: Still in search of sustainability

Author:
Tania Zgajewski
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Like other regions of the world, the EU is developing biofuels in the transport sector to reduce oil consumption and mitigate climate change. To promote them, it has adopted favourable legislation since the 2000s. In 2009 it even decided to oblige each Member State to ensure that by 2020 the share of energy coming from renewable sources reached at least 10% of their final consumption of energy in the transport sector. Biofuels are considered the main instrument to reach that percentage since the development of other alternatives (such as hydrogen and electricity) will take much longer than expected.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, and Biofuels
Political Geography:
Europe

4. Can We Feed the World in 2050? A Scoping Paper to Assess the Evidence

Author:
Timothy A. Wise
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
Alarms sounded following the 2007-8 food price increases regarding our ability to feed the world in 2050. Some said we need to double food production. Other estimates projected a 60% increase in agricultural production to meet rising population and changing diets. This paper looks behind those estimates to assess many of the economic models that have generated the most widely cited projections. A range of models are assessed, a typology of modeling is offered, and the strengths and limitations of different estimates are offered. Notable weaknesses include underestimates of the impacts of biofuels expansion and the uncertainties related to climate change and its impacts on agricultural production. We conclude with a set of recommendations regarding future modeling and the need to provide policy-makers with useful scenario analysis to help them gauge the impacts of policy alternatives.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Demographics, Economics, Gender Issues, Food, and Biofuels

5. Shale Oil and Gas and the Middle East

Author:
Odeh Aburdene
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
It is in the interest of the world community to increase all energy resources—oil, gas, coal, solar, green, and nuclear. There are 7 billion people on this planet today. By 2100 that number will rise to 10 billion people. We can only meet their needs by maximizing energy production and using it in the most efficient means available.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Biofuels
Political Geography:
Middle East

6. America's Energy Security Options

Author:
Trevor Houser
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Like clock-work, as US gasoline prices approached $4 a gallon in spring 2011, energy security moved to the forefront of the American political debate. Global oil prices have recovered from their collapse during the financial crisis more quickly than expected due to resilient developing-country demand and political instability throughout the Middle East and North Africa. As with past oil price spikes, politicians have been quick to offer silver bullet solutions to lower gas prices and make America more energy secure. But given the complexity of the US energy system and global energy markets, it is difficult for even informed observers to evaluate how far current proposals go in solving the country's energy security challenge.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Biofuels
Political Geography:
United States, America, Middle East, and North Africa

7. Primary Energy and Transportation Fuels and the Energy and Water Nexus: Ten Challenges

Author:
Blythe Lyons
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
A substantive dialogue has emerged in the United States under the rubric of "the energy and water nexus," representing the deepening understanding of the circular relationship between water and energy. Both are essential building blocks of US economic and physical security, and interface with efforts to improve health and prosperity. On a national level, the criticality of this relationship to economic and public prosperity is often ignored, as energy and water impacts are largely specific to a watershed or a local surface water source. The United States today needs new policies and significant infrastructure investment in order to meet the increasing demand for water and energy, while dealing with the constraints of growing water scarcity and potential threats to water quality.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, Oil, Natural Resources, Water, and Biofuels
Political Geography:
United States

8. Biofuels Development Strategy: A Case Study of the Dominican Republic

Author:
Brendan Luecke
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The Dominican Republic is well positioned to benefit from the development of an ethanol industry. It has adequate land resources and, under favorable market conditions, can produce ethanol cost-competitively for both domestic consumption and export.
Topic:
Biofuels
Political Geography:
Dominican Republic

9. U.S.-India Dialogue on Sustainable Energy Security

Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The world is at a critical junction in history that will shift the course of economic, social and political developments. The steps major economies take will have a profound impact on international developments and make increasing global cooperation on a number of issues crucial to the well-being of citizens throughout the world. The “US-India Dialogue on Sustainable Energy Security” was the latest effort by the Atlantic Council's Program on Energy and Environment to work with other leading policy institutions to identify the challenges of international cooperation to resolve the difficulties associated with providing the energy resources required to support growing and sustainable economic and social prosperity. The Council's activities are designed to provide non-partisan, pragmatic assessments and recommendations that recognize the need for international energy structures that support the worldwide physical supply security of environmentally responsible and affordable energy.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, and Biofuels
Political Geography:
United States, India, and Southeast Asia

10. Biofuels Impact on Crop and Food Prices: Using an Interactive Spreadsheet

Author:
Scott Baier, Mark Clements, and Jane Ihrig
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper examines the effect that biofuels production has had on commodity and global food prices. The innovative contribution of this paper is the interactive spreadsheet that allows the reader to choose the assumptions behind the estimates. By allowing the reader to choose the country, time period, supply and demand elasticities, and the size of indirect effects we explicitly illustrate the sensitivity of the estimated effect of biofuels production on prices. Our best estimates suggest that the increase in biofuels production over the past two years has had a sizeable impact on corn, sugar, barley and soybean prices, but a much smaller impact on global food prices. Over the past two years (ending June 2008), we estimate that the increase in worldwide biofuels production pushed up corn, soybean and sugar prices by 27, 21 and 12 percentage points respectively. The countries that account for most of the upward pressure on these prices are the United States and Brazil. Our best estimates suggest that the increase in U.S. biofuels production (ethanol and biodiesel) pushed up corn prices by more than 22 percentage points and soybean prices (soybeans and soybean oil) by more than 15 percentage points, while the increase in EU biofuels production pushed corn and soybean prices up around 3 percentage points. Brazil’s increase in sugar-based ethanol production accounts for the entire rise in the price of sugar. Although biofuels had a noticeable impact on individual crop prices, they had a much smaller impact on global food prices. Our best estimate suggests that the increase in worldwide biofuels production over the past two years accounts for just over 12 percent of the rise in the IMF’s food price index. The increase in U.S. biofuels production accounts for roughly 60 percent of this effect, while Brazil accounts for 14 percent and the EU accounts for 15 percent. The key take- away point is that nearly 90 percent of the rise in global food prices comes from factors other than biofuels.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Food, Biofuels, and Ethanol
Political Geography:
United States, Brazil, South America, and North America