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42. The China Trade Challenge: Phase II
- Author:
- The Conference Board
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- China’s fast-paced economic rise and defiance of globally accepted market rules—along with the growing and yet unknown economic impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19)—are driving the next phase of US-China trade negations to the top of the nation’s post-election agenda. While the Phase I US-China trade deal has eased tension, it also set the stage for discussions on other important economic disputes, including forced technology transfer, cyber theft of intellectual property (IP), industrial policies, state subsidies, and new technology, according to a new Solutions Brief, The China Trade Challenge: Phase II, by the Committee for Economic Development of The Conference Board (CED).
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Global Markets, Economy, Global Political Economy, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
43. US-China Economic Relations Under Pressure From COVID-19
- Author:
- Christopher A. McNally
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- With both the US and China facing a long economic slowdown, the bilateral relationship between the globe's two largest economies faces massive challenges. Making matters worse, Washington and Beijing have attempted to divert domestic attention away from their own substantial shortcomings by blaming each other. Given the economic uncertainty, each side has limited leverage to force the other into making concessions. Harsh rhetoric only serves to inflame tensions at the worst possible time. For better or worse, the US and China are locked in a messy economic marriage. A divorce at this time would exact an enormous cost in an already weakened economy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
44. Has U.S. Government Angst over the China Danger Diminished?
- Author:
- Robert Sutter
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The so-called “truce” in the trade war with the signing of the phase one U.S.-China trade agreement on January 15 comes amid indicators that the intense U.S. government consensus pushback against a wide range of perceived challenges posed by China may be subsiding.
- Topic:
- Government, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and Trade Wars
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
45. Taking Stock of United States-Vietnam Relations 45 Years After the Fall of Saigon
- Author:
- Huong Le Thu
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Dr. Huong Le Thu, Senior Analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, explains that “To many, shared concerns about China are the driving force for Vietnam‐U.S. relations.”
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- China, Vietnam, North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America
46. An Israeli-Sudanese Rapprochement? Context, Interests, and Implications
- Author:
- Asher Lubotzky
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this issue of Ifriqiya, Asher Lubotzky discusses the context, opportunities, and risks involved in the pursuit of a normalization deal between Israel and Sudan. Following the 2019 revolution, the different parties in Sudan agreed to a road map for their transition to democracy, which requires that an elected government be formed by the end of 2022. It is clear, however, that the possibility of establishing official relations between Israel and Sudan is on the table and a serious consideration for both parties. This article purposes to make sense of these dramatic developments in Israel-Sudanese relations, place them in a broader context, and analyze the multifaceted interests of both parties.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, Middle East, and Israel
47. How the Abraham Accords affected the Turkish Foreign Policy?
- Author:
- Zoltán Egeresi
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this issue of Turkeyscope, Zoltán Egeresi, research fellow at the Hungarian Institute for Strategic and Defence Studies, analyzes the negative Turkish reaction to the normalization deals made between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Abraham Accords
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Bahrain, United States of America, and UAE
48. With Tensions Receding, Americans Lose Fear of North Korea
- Author:
- Karl Friedhoff
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- North Korea’s promise to deliver an end-of-year “Christmas gift” went unfulfilled amid signs that the United States wanted to continue diplomacy with the Kim regime. This has led to a continued lull in tensions between the two countries, although actual progress in negotiations remains elusive. With that lack of progress, President Donald Trump has reportedly told his advisers that he does not want another summit with Kim Jong Un before the US presidential election in November. In a survey conducted from January 10–12, 2020, the American public is now less concerned about the threat posed by North Korea, but little else has changed in terms of Americans’ policy preferences to deal with North Korea’s nuclear program. Majorities still oppose airstrikes against North Korea and support long-term military bases in South Korea.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America
49. Troop Withdrawal Likely to Undermine South Korean Public Support for Alliance with United States
- Author:
- Karl Friedhoff
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- The United States and South Korea remain locked in negotiations over the Special Measures Agreement (SMA)—the agreement which formally determines how much South Korea contributes to the financial cost of stationing US troops in South Korea. In the past, these negotiations took place behind the scenes away from the public eye. But keeping details of this round of negotiations private proved difficult when it was disclosed that the United States requested $5 billion dollars, an unprecedented 400 percent increase from the previous year. When the two sides failed to reach a deal by April 1, 4,000 Koreans who work on US bases in South Korea were furloughed. The public attention to these negotiations—and the US request being framed as extortive by Korean media and US analysts—raised concerns that the South Korean public’s positive views of the alliance would be damaged. But just-completed polling by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs suggests that is not the case. Little has changed in terms of South Korean attitudes towards the alliance. The South Korean public remains positive about the alliance, supportive of stationing US troops in South Korea, and confident that the US will defend South Korea if North Korea attacks. But the data also suggests that there are scenarios in which South Korean public confidence could be punctured. Confidence in the US commitment to defend South Korea if attacked by North Korea is strongly related to views that the alliance with the United States is mutually beneficial. This, in turn, implies that the biggest downside risk to support for the alliance stems from actions that would impact US credibility to defend South Korea if North Korea attacks. While a range of actions may trigger a decrease in confidence in US commitment to defend South Korea, one of the most immediate reported to be under consideration is a partial withdrawal of US troops. This move has the potential to shift South Korean attitudes away from seeing the alliance as mutually beneficial and towards views that the alliance benefits only the United States.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Armed Forces, Alliance, and Troop Deployment
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America
50. Reviving the revolutionaries: How Trump’s maximum pressure is shifting Iran’s domestic politics
- Author:
- Ellie Geranmayeh
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council On Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Europeans wish to persuade Iran to compromise on strategic issues – but, unless they understand the dynamics of domestic Iranian politics, they will not get far. Three main power blocs compete to influence Iran’s supreme leader, including the ‘modernisers’, who were instrumental in building the case internally for the nuclear deal. The US ‘maximum pressure’ campaign has placed them on the back foot. Improving the economy remains the most pressing issue in Iran. Without a Western economic offer, the other two power blocs – the conservative ‘Principlists’ and IRGC-linked ‘securocrats’ – will continue their recent ascendancy and press for a confrontational ‘maximum resistance’ response. Immediately after the US presidential election, Europeans should embark on shuttle diplomacy with Washington and Tehran to agree an interim deal on the nuclear issue. This could also strengthen modernisers ahead of Iran’s own presidential race in 2021.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America