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22. It’s complicated: Russia’s tricky relationship with China
- Author:
- Kadri Liik
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Western policymakers are now asking whether Russia and China will join forces in an alliance of autocracies, and whether they have a chance to manage this challenge by drawing Moscow away from Beijing. Neither of these outcomes is likely in the short term: Russia has many reasons to maintain a cordial relationship with China, while policymakers in Moscow view rapprochement with the West as impossible or too politically costly. The Kremlin’s thinking on China is an amalgam of quickly developing trends that will determine Russia’s position in a world shaped by the US-China rivalry. While the West does not have an opportunity to prompt a policy U-turn in Moscow that divides Russia and China, it could give Russia space to hedge against China in key areas such as advanced technology.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Alliance, Ideology, Pragmatism, and Autocracy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, and Asia
23. Why Summit Optics May Help De-escalate Public Appetite for Conflict
- Author:
- Max Plithides
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- As competition between democracies and autocratic adversaries such as North Korea, Iran, Russia, and China intensifies, democratic publics may increasingly pressure their politicians to take a more confrontational stance. The implications are dangerous. Public pressure for confrontation during the Cold War caused numerous foreign policy fiascos.1 Public pressure also at times undermined the broad political unity necessary for concluding diplomatic agreements— even between democratic allies.2 How then, as the world enters a new era of great power competition, can public pressure and anger be defused and foreign policy put on a more rational footing? This policy brief, part of a series on great power competition, argues that bilateral summits with autocratic leaders may have a key role to play in shifting the public’s collective emotional ethos. It analyzes results from a large-scale survey experiment, designed around the historic 2018 Singapore Summit, which represented the first-ever meeting of the leaders of North Korea and the United States and was preceded by months of saber rattling.3 According to conventional logic the Summit was worthless: It produced a joint communiqué with “no concrete specifics”4 and had no effect on President Trump’s approval rating.5 Yet evidence shows that joint photographs from the Summit reduced bellicosity in American public opinion towards North Korea by allowing President Trump to act as a visual empathetic mediator. The Singapore Summit thus broadly evinces the potential value of bilateral summits to reduce tensions with autocratic adversaries.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Citizenship, Strategic Competition, and Autocracy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
24. India Turns an Electoral Autocracy
- Author:
- Muhammad Saleem Mazhar and Naheed S. Goraya
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- South Asian Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- This article is a critical appraisal to the findings of Sweden based Institute V-Dem1 , the Democracy Report 2021 ―Autocratization Turns Viral‖. This report elucidates that India is no more among the list of democratic countries, terming India as an ―Electoral Autocracy‖. This statistically quantified analysis puts a big question mark on the face of Indian democracy where human rights are no more respected. The Indian democratic backsliding has largely occurred due to Modi‘s promotion of Hindu-nationalist agenda that has hollowed Indian democracy leading country to a polarized and intolerant society. Personality cults have historically been the hallmarks of totalitarian regimes. The cult of Modi has been complemented by a deepening majoritarianism, as the ruling party assaults and threatens religious minorities in its effort to build a theocratic Hindu state. Empirically the study focuses on critical analysis of this report while discussing Hindutva Ideology and Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). The present research tries to answer the question how current situation of democratic backsliding will impact Indian politics. The paper will argue the impact it has vis-a-viz regional and global peace.
- Topic:
- Elections, Autocracy, Democratic Backsliding, and Hindutva
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
25. Protecting Democracy: The Relevance of International Democracy Promotion for Term Limits
- Author:
- Julia Leininger and Daniel Nowack
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- The question of whether and how democracy can be promoted and protected through international support has recently gained relevance. On the one hand, the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan has reignited a public debate on the limits of democracy promotion. On the other hand, the need for international democracy protection is growing due to an increase in autocratisation trends worldwide. DIE research shows that it is possible to effectively support and protect democracy. In this context, both the protection of central democratic institutions, such as term limits for rulers, and the promotion of democratic forces that pro-actively resist attempts at auto¬cratisation are central. Since 2010, autocratisation trends have been characterised by the fact that they often slowly erode achieved democratisation successes and consolidate autocracies. The circumvention and abolition of presidential term limits by incumbent presidents are part of the typical “autocratisation toolbox”. Term extensions limit democratic control and expand presidential powers. Democracy promotion and protection play a relevant role in preserving presidential term limits, and thus in protecting democracy. They contribute towards improving the “duration” and “survival chances” of presidential term limits. The more international democracy promotion is provided, the lower the risk that term limits will be circumvented. For example, a DIE analysis found that a moderately high democracy promotion mean of $2.50 per capita over four years on average halves the risk of presidential term limits being circumvented.
- Topic:
- NATO, Development, Diplomacy, Democracy, and Autocracy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
26. The political economy of Kazakhstan. A case of good economics, bad politics?
- Author:
- Simon Commander
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
- Abstract:
- Can autocracies and their associated institutions successfully implement economic policies that promote growth and investment? Can ‘good economics’ somehow offset the effects of ‘bad’ politics? Kazakhstan is a case where an autocratic regime has actively projected market-friendly policies and attracted significant amounts of incoming investment. These policies are to some extent reflected in the country’s governance ratings, although there has been a significant amount of investment disputes that question the attachment to the rule of law. Moreover, the political regime remains strongly personalised around the founder President, his family and associates. This is reflected in the economics of the autocracy whereby a large public sector and a set of privately held businesses coexist to mutual benefit. The latter have been formed around a very small number of highly connected individuals whose initial accumulation of assets allows them also to act as necessary gatekeepers for entrants. Competition as a result remains limited in both economic and political domains. Yet, uncertainties over the future leadership, along with latent rivalry over access to resources and markets, make the political equilibrium quite fragile. In short, ‘bad’ politics both squeezes the space for, and distorts the benefits from, ‘good’ economics.
- Topic:
- Political Economy, Politics, Economic Growth, Investment, and Autocracy
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia and Kazakhstan
27. To Grow or Not to Grow: Belarus and Lithuania
- Author:
- Thorvaldur Gylfason and Eduard Hochreiter
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- We compare the economic growth performance of Belarus and Lithuania since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Our interest in this country pair is driven by the two countries´ interwoven histories as well as by the fact that Belarus remains autocratic and strongly tied to Russia, while Lithuania has reinvented itself as a democratic market economy fully integrated into the EU. Our aim is to better understand the extent to which the growth differential between the two countries can be traced to increased efficiency, i.e., total factor productivity, in the use of capital and other resources via, inter alia, better institutions (intensive growth) as opposed to sheer accumulation of capital (extensive growth), the hallmark of Soviet economic growth. To this end, we compare the development of some key determinants of growth in the two countries since the 1990s. A simple growth accounting model suggests that advances in education at all levels, good governance, and institutional reforms have played a more significant role in raising economic output and efficiency in Lithuania than in Belarus, which remains marred by problems related to weak governance as well as autocratic rule. Further, as in Estonia and Latvia, the EU perspective has made a significant contribution to growth in Lithuania. The Russian connection has done less for Belarus. Finally, we touch upon the impact of the corona virus on the economies of the two countries.
- Topic:
- European Union, Economy, Economic Growth, Post-Soviet Space, and Autocracy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Lithuania, and Belarus
28. Contemporary Challenges to Global Democracy
- Author:
- Erica Frantz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Institution:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Abstract:
- Today’s democracies are under threat. According to the watchdog organiza- tion Freedom House, each year of the past decade has seen a decline in global democracy.1 Importantly, many of these declines have occurred in wealthier and more established democracies, which scholars have typically considered resistant to democratic backsliding. In some instances, these erosions have left democracies weakened, such as in India and the United States; however, in other instances, they have led to complete democratic collapse and the emergence of authoritarianism, such as in Turkey and Serbia.
- Topic:
- Governance, Democracy, Dictatorship, Political Crisis, and Autocracy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
29. Leaders for a New Africa: Democrats, Autocrats, and Development
- Author:
- Giovanni Carbone
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- Political leadership can be a crucial ingredient for the development of sub-Saharan Africa. The region has been going through important transformations, with both political landscapes and economic trajectories becoming increasingly diverse. The changes underway include the role of leadership and its broader impact. This volume argues that, on the whole, African leaders and the way they reach power generally do contribute to shaping their countries’ progresses and achievements. It also zooms in on some influential African leaders who recently emerged in key states across the continent, illustrating and explaining the individual paths that brought them to power while reflecting on the prospects for their governments’ actions. Far from the simplistic stereotypes of immovable, ineffective and greedy rulers, the resulting picture reveals dynamic and rapidly evolving political scenarios with key implications for development in the region.
- Topic:
- Development, Politics, Democracy, Leadership, and Autocracy
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa
30. Fragile States Index 2017 – Annual Report
- Author:
- J. J. Messner, Nate Haken, Hannah Blyth, Christina Murphy, Amanda Quinn, George Lehner, and Daniel Ganz
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Fund for Peace
- Abstract:
- The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
- Topic:
- Fragile States, Economic Growth, Domestic Politics, Coup, Instability, and Autocracy
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United Kingdom, Turkey, Middle East, South Africa, Brazil, Colombia, South America, North America, Ethiopia, Mexico, South Sudan, Global Focus, and United States of America
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