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471. The Philippines: Breakthrough in Mindanao

Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The pact signed on 15 October 2012 between the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the Philippine government is a breakthrough in many ways but is far from a final peace. As with earlier texts signed over years of negotiations, this one – the “framework agreement” – defers several tough questions and it is unclear how, if ever, they will be resolved. At stake is the creation of a genuinely autonomous region in Muslim-majority Mindanao for the various ethnic groups collectively known as the Bangsamoro, with more powers, more territory and more control over resources. The framework agreement envisions a new government for the troubled Muslim south that would raise its own revenues and have its own police and judiciary. It maps out a multi-step process to create this new entity by the time President Benigno Aquino III's term ends in 2016. The obstacles ahead are huge. Politics in Mindanao or Manila could get in the way, and it may be impossible to devolve sufficient power to the Bangsamoro government without running afoul of the constitution. The MILF is unlikely to surrender its arms until the process is complete.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Armed Struggle, Counterinsurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Israel and Philippines

472. A New Paradigm? Prospects and Challenges for U.S. Global Leadership

Author:
Tural Ahmadov
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
Throughout the years the overwhelming preponderance of US global leadership is debated by scholars and politicians. In light of the 'rise of the rest', this preponderance is either diminishing or still standing. As of now, yet again, the US is a dominant player both economically and militarily. However, economic recession is likely to make the United States put more emphasis on domestic problems and less emphasis on foreign challenges. Since political and economic landscape is swiftly changing overseas, the United States should act accordingly and cooperate with regional powers on issues of mutual interest. Similarly, as current development is under way in the Middle East, the United States should staunchly back Turkey as the regional hub in dealing with Syrian crisis and foiling Iranian menace.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Asia

473. Obama, Romney, and the Future of Turkey-United States Relations

Author:
Frank Lin
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
The 2012 American presidential election features two candidates, incumbent President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney, with contrasting foreign policy visions for the United States, particularly with regards to the Middle East. How could these differences between the two candidates affect bilateral relations between the United States and Turkey, which—aside from Israel—is generally seen by the United States as its most stalwart ally in the Middle East? This paper will examine the recent history of bilateral relations between Turkey and the United States, from the George W. Bush administration to the Obama administration, as well as current issues surrounding relations between the two countries. It will also explore how the predicted policies of each candidate could impact the future course of bilateral relations between Turkey and the United States.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

474. China's regional security relations and interaction with the U.S.: trends, challenges and possible scenarios

Author:
Frans-Paul van der Putten
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This paper provides a brief overview of current developments relevant to Sino-U.S. security relations, and to China's involvement in regional security issues, in East and South-East Asia. The most fundamental challenge with regard to regional stability is how the roles of China and the United States in the Asia Pacific can be reconciled. While the U.S. is concerned that a rising China will eventually push American influence out of East and South-East Asia, China in turn fears that the U.S. will try to retain its leadership role by exploiting and amplifying tensions between the Chinese and their neighbours. Currently the Sino-U.S. rivalry is threatening unity within ASEAN, which poses an immediate risk for regional stability. A substantial improvement in regional stability – whether in South-East or in East Asia – is unlikely unless the U.S. and China manage to stabilise their bilateral relationship. It is important for all interested parties, inside Asia but also outside (including in Europe), to contribute to a move away from a scenario in which regional stability continues to deteriorate, and in the direction of a scenario that involves a cooperative arrangement between China and the U.S. in a stable multilateral setting.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, East Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Southeast Asia

475. Negotiating disarmament and demobilisation in peace processes: what is the state of the evidence?

Author:
Robert Muggah and Matthias Rieger
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This report considers the extent to which disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) and related concepts are accounted for in peace processes and peace agreements. It focuses on the scale and scope of provisions for disarmament and demobilisation in peace agreements, the nature of their sequencing and inclusion in such agreements, and the types of security mechanisms intended to promote confidence among parties. It finds that key provisions for DDR are present in over half of all comprehensive peace agreements (numbering 37 in total) and fewer than 5% of all related peace accords, protocols and resolutions (numbering 640 in total). This review does not discern clear patterns of where key concepts are located or distributed in peace agreements. In reviewing negotiating experiences, however, it finds that “disarmament” and “demobilisation” are often relegated to the end of talks and/or left ambiguous in peace agreements themselves. Mediators or parties to a conflict thus seldom regard disarmament and demobilisation as preconditions for negotiations. They are nevertheless central to wider questions of security sector transformation and transitional justice in the aftermath of war.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Treaties and Agreements, and War

476. Brazil: an emerging peacekeeping actor

Author:
Per M. Norheim-Martinsen
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
As the presence of Western states in UN peacekeeping operations (PKOs) has gradually decreased, new states have been filling the resultant void, although these operations remain wedded to Western ideas and standards of how such interventions should be carried out. However, as emerging powers like Brazil are now taking the lead on the ground, the question that this report seeks to shed light on is how this is starting to affect the way in which the UN carries out its PKOs. It assesses the Brazilian military lead in MINUSTAH in Haiti against the backdrop of the so-called “pacification” strategy currently employed in the favelas of Rio de Janeiro. It shows that rather than being a “transmission belt” for a traditional Western model of military intervention, Brazil's lead in MINUSTAH has had an added value, building on Brazilian experience with urban conflict, which is an area with which the UN and Western states are unfamiliar. In fact, several states, including the U.S., have started to look to Brazil when developing and adapting concepts for urban and anti-crime operations. This shows that as Brazil has become a more active participant in UN PKOs, it has also gradually begun to set the agenda for how the UN runs such operations.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Peace Studies, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Brazil and Latin America

477. Disarmament and demobilisation in comparative perspective: patterns and policy recommendations

Author:
Madhav Joshi and J. Michael Quinn
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Disarmament and demobilisation (DD) programmes are vital components of strategic peacebuilding. DD provisions govern the collection and disposal of arms and ammunition, and oversee the discharge of active-duty combatants from the state's armed forces, rebel groups, or both. Using data from the Peace Accords Matrix database, this report compares the five most recent cases of DD implementation: Nepal (2006), Liberia (2003), Macedonia (2001), Indonesia-Aceh (2005) and South Sudan (2005). A comparative analysis reveals several common patterns in the kinds of provisional and operational choices associated with efficient DD implementation. Having a definite timeline and largely completing the process prior to the first elections creates an incentivised environment for a timely DD process while diminishing the risks of election-related violence. Economic incentives associated with the process of cantonment can increase the duration of DD programmes. External actors with a strong mandate can solve problems faster and have been instrumental in achieving a swift DD progression. Disarmament programmes must be realistically matched to conflict settings. This can include the use of mobile collection units, which have proved to be successful in cases where a primary centralised site is not sufficient.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Peace Studies, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Nepal, Macedonia, Liberia, and South Sudan

478. European Defense Trends 2012: Budgets, Regulatory Frameworks, and the Industrial Base

Author:
David J. Berteau, Guy Ben-Ari, Joachim Hofbauer, Priscilla Hermann, and Sneha Raghavan
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
The European defense market is composed of three key elements: national defense spending, the European defense acquisition regulatory environment, and the European defense and security industrial base. This report assesses the defense spending of 37 European countries, regulations governing the European defense market, and the health of the European defense and security industrial base. Expanding upon CSIS research on these topics from 2008 and 2010, this report provides an in-depth analysis of these elements of the European defense market, which in turn can serve as the basis for a better understanding of trends in European defense policies and capabilities.
Topic:
Security and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
Europe

479. Asian Defense Spending, 2000–2011

Author:
David J. Berteau, Guy Ben-Ari, Joachim Hofbauer, Priscilla Hermann, and Sneha Raghavan
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Asia is growing in geostrategic importance. Despite the financial crisis that began in 2008, many Asian countries experienced relatively less fiscal distress and increased their level of involvement in global affairs. Indicative of the region's elevated global role is the United States' pivot toward the Asia-Pacific region as outlined in the Strategic Guidance recently released by the Department of Defense. With Asian defense spending projected to overtake that of Europe by the end of 2012, the United States' posture rebalancing toward the Asia-Pacific region is likely to continue.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Israel and Asia

480. Transparency in Military Spending and Arms Acquisitions in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:
Mark Bromley and Carina Solmirano
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
Over the past two decades democratic processes have strengthened in Latin America and the Caribbean following decades of authoritarian rule. The region faces no major external military threat and—other than a limited number of unresolved border disputes—relations between neighbouring states are peaceful. Nonetheless, military expenditure and arms acquisitions have increased significantly in recent years. These developments have sparked fears about their potential impact on regional stability as well as the possibility of a regional arms race developing. In addition, questions have been asked as to whether the increase in spending has been made at the expense of the social needs of the citizens of Latin America and the Caribbean. In this context, governments in the region have renewed efforts to improve the levels of transparency of their military spending and arms acquisitions.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Poverty, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Latin America and Caribbean