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122. The G20 after Los Cabos: Illusions of Global Economic Governance
- Author:
- Gabriel Goodliffe and Stéphan Sberro
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The International Spectator
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The failure of the Los Cabos summit to satisfactorily address the European sovereign debt crisis and ominous world economic outlook, let alone agree on concrete measures to improve the oversight and functioning of the global economy, appears to confirm the diminishing effectiveness and relevance of the G20 as an organ of international governance since its inception in December 2008. While few accomplishments were achieved in the area of global governance during the Mexican presidency, acute collective action problems, made worse by the present economic crisis, paralysed the G20 in the lead-up to and during the Los Cabos summit. These collective action problems and the ensuing failure of global governance are attributable to the absence of leadership evident at both the global and European levels, which in turn testifies to the excessive dispersion of state economic and political power within the international system.
- Political Geography:
- Europe
123. Policy Lessons from the Eurozone Crisis
- Author:
- Chiara Angeloni, Silvia Merler, and Guntram B. Wolff
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The International Spectator
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The current European crisis has shed light on several weaknesses and the institutional incompleteness characterizing the euro area. The manifestation of Europe's fragility was preceded by a large build-up of debt in the private sector, associated with national current account divergences and the deterioration of competitiveness particularly of the euro periphery countries. With the economic situation deteriorating, private sector debt became less credible, contaminating banks' balance sheets and placing a heavy burden on governments. A sovereign-bank vicious circle emerged: on the one hand, with banking risk translating into higher sovereign risk because of the governments' guarantor role and, on the other hand, with the deterioration of government's creditworthiness affecting the banking systems through banks' sovereign bond holdings. In principle, this negative feedback can be stopped by breaking one of the channels of transmission. A banking union at the European level is proposed as one solution.
- Topic:
- Disaster Relief
- Political Geography:
- Europe
124. A Slow Fuse: Italy and the EU Debt Crisis
- Author:
- Jonathan Hopkin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The International Spectator
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Italy is firmly in the grip of an austerity programme mandated by the European Union institutions, and executed by an unelected technocrat. This state of affairs is at once the result of the acute and unexpected crisis of the financial and economic integration of the eurozone, and an expression of the failures of the Italian political class. Although the euro crisis has been mishandled by European elites, Italy's long-term economic decline, and the inability of Italian party politicians to generate a sustainable coalition to address Italy's economic problems, hinders an exit from the crisis.
- Topic:
- Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Italy
125. The Greek Crisis and the Search for Political Leadership
- Author:
- Dimitrios Katsikas
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The International Spectator
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Despite two bailout agreements of unprecedented size and the implementation of a harsh austerity programme, no solution to the Greek crisis is in sight. As a result, Greece continues to be a hotspot, sending sporadic tremors to a fragile eurozone. The outcome so far leaves no doubts about the grave mishandling of the crisis. The most important cause of this failure is the lack of political leadership at both the national and European levels. Accordingly, a solution to the Greek crisis will remain elusive unless Greek and Europeans politicians overcome the constraints of national political calculations and exercise leadership commensurate to the challenge of rescuing Greece and indeed the eurozone itself.
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Greece
126. The Pain in Spain: Light at the End of the Tunnel?
- Author:
- Charles Powell and Federico Steinberg
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The International Spectator
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Much recent international press coverage of Spain's difficulties portrays a country rapidly approaching political, economic and social meltdown. Its economy is contracting, its unemployment rate is at unprecedented levels and its sovereign risk premium hovers at apparently unsustainable levels. Spain will undoubtedly require external financial help from its European partners, as well as more time and flexibility to achieve its fiscal targets. But it also has a number of strengths that are too often overlooked. Spending cuts and structural reforms are proceeding at a lively pace, unit labour costs are falling significantly, and exports and productivity are on the rise. In short, there is light at the end of the tunnel.
- Political Geography:
- Spain
127. Portugal and the Straitjacket of the European Financial Crisis
- Author:
- Paulo Gorja
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The International Spectator
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The austerity program negotiated with the Troika (IMF-ECB-EC) and adopted by Portugal in 2011 is having a devastating impact on the Portuguese economy. Although the Portuguese government is clearly fulfilling the measures agreed with the Troika, the final outcome of the adjustment program is not entirely in its hands, but rather awaiting further EU decisions involving measures to stimulate economic growth, mutualisation of public debt and additional steps towards a federal Europe. As time goes by, the negative repercussions – in particular social and political instability, as well as the erosion of the Portuguese democratic regime – are inevitable if there is no light at the end of the tunnel.
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Portugal
128. Chavez Stays, Again
- Author:
- Michael Shifter and Cameron Combs
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The International Spectator
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez fended off a spirited challenge by Governor Henrique Capriles this fall. But continuing questions about Chavez's health and the country's dismal governance suggest that change may be coming soon. Looking ahead, the opposition will need to address concerns by the very poor that social spending will dry up if Chavez is no longer in office. Meanwhile, political differences and power struggles, and a sense of demoralization, risk undermining Capriles' diverse coalition. The regional scenario would look very different without Chávez. External players should restrain from meddling during this period of uncertainty. Instead, support should focus on trying to ensure that Venezuelans continue to rely on the ballot box in determining the course of a country facing so many daunting problems.
129. What Can the WTO Teach the IMF? Dealing with Global Financial Crises Amid the Rise of Financial Regionalism
- Author:
- Suominen Suominen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The International Spectator
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Despite rising back to prominence during the global economic turmoil, the International Monetary Fund remains under severe pressure over its lack of legitimacy and effectiveness. It is surrounded by increasingly vibrant and potentially competing systems of regional financial arrangements. But while it is feared that regional arrangements can undermine the global financial order, they can also help buttress the multilateral institutions that are struggling to manage an increasingly complex global economy. The purpose of this article is to draw on trade, exploring the decades-long efforts to ensure compatibilities between regional trade agreements and the multilateral trading system, to offer lessons to financial policymakers.
130. Financial Regionalism in East Asia
- Author:
- Ulrich Volz
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The International Spectator
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- This article provides an overview of the current state of financial regionalism in East Asia and discusses why and how the East Asian countries should go forward in terms of financial and monetary regionalism. It highlights intra-regional exchange rate stability as an important regional public good and makes the case for greater exchange rate cooperation. To this end, East Asian countries should gradually reduce their exposure to the US dollar and move towards currency basket regimes which would sustain relative intra-regional exchange rate stability while allowing for sufficient flexibility to accommodate idiosyncratic shocks. Against the backdrop of the global and European financial crisis, the article also urges a reconsideration of the costs and benefits of international – and regional – financial integration and calls for a further strengthening of East Asia's regional financial architecture.
- Political Geography:
- United States and East Asia