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1. Missed Signals: Analyzing the Failure of Intelligence Cooperation in ASEAN in Preventing the Jolo Cathedral Bombings 2019

Author:
Rachel Kumendong and Ali Abdullah Wibisono
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
This research examines the failure of ASEAN Our Eyes (AOE) to face the 2019 Jolo Cathedral bombings. ASEAN's first intelligence cooperation initiative, known as AOE, was established in 2018 in response to the growing threat of transnational terrorism (ISIS) in the region. The Jolo Cathedral bombing was one of the deadliest suicide bombings in the Philippines, demonstrating the inability of AOE as a counterterrorism mechanism to face the threat of transnational terrorism. The findings of this research shed light on the two major factors - the absence of an agreed standard of procedure and the lack of early warning systems - that contributed to the failure of the AOE. The gaps identified highlight areas for improvement in intelligence cooperation and underscore the need for standardized procedures and robust early warning mechanisms to enhance ASEAN's collective response to transnational terrorist threats.
Topic:
Intelligence, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, ASEAN, and Intelligence Sharing
Political Geography:
Philippines and Asia-Pacific

2. The Management of Women and Children Associated with Foreign Terrorist Fighters upon Their Returns: A Focus Group Discussion on Possibilities for Repatriation with Practitioners and Government Officials in Indonesia

Author:
Ardhiana Fitriyanie and Zora A. Sukabdi
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
This article focuses on the management of women and children associated with FTFs upon their return to Indonesia, particularly from camps in Syria. This research highlights the urgency of preparing a mechanism for the returnees and the proposed alternative solutions, as the camps in Syria are expected to be closed in the near future. In addition, the use of risk assessment tools to identify the level of risk of each individual will determine the repatriation process, time and individuals to be repatriated within a given period. The results of this research also point to the following as possible solutions (a) the establishment of rehabilitation and deradicalization centers within and outside the country, (b) the preparation of risk assessment and needs mechanisms, (c) the creation of an integrated child adoption system (SAAT) programme, and (d) the establishment of an early warning and early detection system mechanism at the community level.
Topic:
Children, Women, Islamic State, Foreign Fighters, Repatriation, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

3. The global terrorist threat forecast in 2023

Author:
Liu Chunlin and Rohan Gunaratna
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
The article presents three significant developments in the global terrorism landscape: Far-right terrorism, the growth of al Qaeda, with Taliban patronage from Afghanistan, and the persistence of the Islamic State as the most dominant threat in the world despite the successive decapitation of its leadership The article notes the importance in this context of political Islam and the spread of "jihadist" doctrines both from the Gulf and from conflict zones supplanting traditional and local Islam. The article also notes the potential impact of the radical environmental movement and the growing problem of the use of violence by other radical groups.
Topic:
Terrorism, Taliban, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Far Right, and Political Islam
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Middle East, and Global Focus

4. La narrativa de Al-Qaeda en el Magreb Islámico frente a la irrupción del Estado Islámico

Author:
Elena C. Díaz Galán
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
El presente artículo explora las transformaciones producidas en la narrativa de la Al-Qaeda en el Magreb Islámico y su adaptación a la aparición en la escena yihadista global de Estado Islámico y la declaración del restablecimiento del Califato. A través de la compilación, la codificación sistematizada y la explotación de un corpus monolingüe especializado, representativo, equilibrado y diacrónico de todas las publicaciones propagandísticas relevantes de AQMI entre 2004 y 2017, esta investigación pone de manifiesto los cambios producidos en la narrativa de la organización magrebí y la adaptación de su discurso a la aparición de competencia en la contienda actual abierta por el liderazgo de la yihad global.
Topic:
Terrorism, Islamic State, Al-Qaeda of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and Narrative
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

5. International terrorism, a threat present in Kosovo

Author:
Fidan Haliti
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
This article deals with the threats posed by international terrorism to the security environment in Kosovo, with a particular focus on the period of the emergence of ISIS, when a large number of fighters from Kosovo joined terrorist organisations in the conflict zone of Syria and Iraq. This article attempts to explain the general factors leading to the rise of violent extremism and religious radicalism in Kosovo, as well as why Kosovar fighters joined ISIS. In particular, it examines the institutional responses to counter-terrorism in Kosovo, the elimination of conditions and factors conducive to extremism and radicalism, and the weaknesses of Kosovo institutions in countering terrorism.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Kosovo

6. Global threat landscape 2022

Author:
Liu Chunlin and Rohan Gunaratna
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Three trends will characterise the evolving global terror threat landscape in 2022. First, the cascading implications of the return of the Taliban-al Qaeda alliance to Afghanistan on August 15, 2021. Second, the diffusion of the Islamic State threat from the Levant, notably from Iraqi-Syrian theatre. Third, the online surge of extremist and violent content especially of Islamist and Far Right entities on servers in North America and Europe mobilising and radicalizing especially youth. With lockdowns, partial lockdowns and other pandemic restrictions, the challenges facing government security forces - military, law enforcement and intelligence surged and both in resource allocation for training and mobility for operations hampered their performance and efficacy. The focus on humanitarian challenges by governments during the pandemic was ably exploited by threat groups to expand their support bases or capture territory. On the other hand, a range of ideological and material threats manifested in 2021. Some will institutionalise both in the physical and digital spaces in 2022. With radicalisation and reciprocal radicalisation of Islamists and Far Right threat groups, their networks, cells and personalities will stage attacks.
Topic:
Taliban, Radicalization, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Islamism, and Digital Space
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, South Asia, Middle East, and Syria

7. The Terrorist Threat Forecast in 2021

Author:
Liu Chunlin and Rohan Gunaratna
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
The pandemic year 2021 is likely to witness an overall decline in global terrorism. While the threat grew in conflict zones, it diminished off-the-battlefields. However, threat groups worldwide are expanding in cyber space during the pandemic. From Indonesia to Pakistan, Muslim majority countries, Arabization and Islamization of Muslim communities during the pandemic is disrupting national cohesion. To prevent, counter and respond to the recent developments of key terrorist organizations, governmental and non-governmental partners should understand the threat. The intelligence services, law enforcement authorities and military forces should move from counter terrorism cooperation to collaboration and partnership. Working with community, academic and private sector partners, governments should build the higher strategic and ground level operational and tactical capabilities.
Topic:
Terrorism, Cybersecurity, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Indonesia, and Global Focus

8. A Decade of War in Syria: Current Situation and Possible Outcomes/Una Década de Guerra en Siria: Situación Actual y Posibles Desenlaces

Author:
Andrea Cocchini
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
This year 2021 marks the tenth anniversary of the beginning of the armed conflict in Syria which, triggered by graffiti against the government of the al-Assad family, turned into a civil war with at least 390,000 dead, involving numerous States in the Middle East, as well as the major global powers, with their own specific geopolitical interests. This article therefore aims to provide an account of the current situation in Syria and the objectives that these powers still have in this country. Once the two main reasons for intervening in the conflict disappeared, the true nature of this war came to the surface, embedded in the broader contests of historical rivalry between the United States and Russia on the one hand, and Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran on the other. Apparently, none of them really wants to end it, without compensation. / En este año 2021 se cumplen diez años del comienzo del conflicto armado en Siria que, desencadenado por unos grafitis en contra del gobierno guiado con mano autoritaria por la familia al-Assad, se ha convertido en una guerra con, al menos, 390.000 muertos, que ha acabado involucrando a numerosos Estados de Oriente Próximo, así como a grandes potencias, cada una portadora de intereses geopolíticos concretos. El presente artículo pretende dar cuenta de la situación actual de Siria y, en particular, de los objetivos particulares que mantienen en el país diversos actores. Después de que desaparecieran las dos razones principales esgrimidas para intervenir en el conflicto, quedó de manifiesto su auténtica naturaleza de guerra subsidiaria y sectaria, que se inserta en las más amplias contiendas entre rivales históricos como los Estados Unidos y Rusia, por una parte, y Arabia Saudí, Turquía e Irán, por otra, y que ninguno entre ellos parece tener interés en acabar sin recibir compensaciones.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Islamic State, Military Intervention, Conflict, Syrian War, Proxy War, Operation Inherent Resolve, and Euphrates Shield
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and United States of America

9. The Terrorist Threat Assessment 2020

Author:
Liu Chunlin and Rohan Gunaratna
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
The Islamic State (IS) centric threat has spread to Africa and Asia. In Sub Saharan Africa, the threat is growing in the Sahel and, in Asia, the threat is growing in South Asia. The IS influence in Africa is growing, with attacks in Congo, Mozambique, Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso and Somalia. The IS suffered very serious setbacks in Iraq and Syria throughout 2019 but expanded to other parts of the Middle East, Africa and Asia. All indications are that Afghanistan is likely to emerge as an alternative IS headquarters. Regarding the relations between al Qaeda and IS, the two movements, that are ideological akin, are likely to merge if not work together at least in some theatres. If so, the global threat to governments and communities will increase exponentially.
Topic:
Terrorism, Non State Actors, Al Qaeda, and Islamic State
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, Middle East, and Asia

10. A New Threat Landscape in 2015

Author:
Rohan Gunaratna
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
The al Qaeda-centric terrorist landscape is eclipsed by an Islamic State (IS)-centric threat landscape. Today, an al Qaeda-IS hybrid influences and shapes the global threat landscape of political violence. With three dozen threat groups in Asia, Africa and the Middle East expressing support to the Caliphate and pledging allegiance to self-styled Caliph Abu Bakr al Baghdadi in 2014, IS will expand its international footprint in 2015. IS is transforming from a group in the Iraq and Syrian Theatre to a global network.
Topic:
Terrorism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and Non-Traditional Threats
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Syria