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61. The U.S.-Pakistan Relationship in the Year Ahead

Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In the past six months, a series of major incidents between the United States and Pakistan has brought their relationship to a new low. Even Pakistan's longstanding allies and European aid donors are increasingly at odds with Islamabad's current foreign policy. These tensions have Pakistani civilians feeling as if their country is at war with the world.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, and Islamabad

62. The Merger of Al-Shabab and Qa'idat al-Jihad

Author:
Nelly Lahoud
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In february 9, 2012, al-Qa`ida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri announced the merger of the Somali militant group al-Shabab and “Qa`idat al-Jihad,” the name he has used since at least 2005 to designate the group otherwise known as al-Qa`ida. This merger is significant because it materialized only after two key people had been eliminated, namely Usama bin Ladin in May 2011 and Fadil Harun (also known as Fazul Abdullah Mohammad) in June 2011. According to media reports, Harun was shot and killed by Somali government forces when he and his companion, Musa Husayn, refused to stop at a checkpoint in Mogadishu.
Political Geography:
Somalia

63. The Evidence of Al-Qa'ida's Role in the 2004 Madrid Attack

Author:
Fernando Reinares
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
ON MARCH 11, 2004, a series of coordinated bombings ripped through Madrid's commuter train system, killing 191 people. Although the attacks have been described as the product of an independent cell of self-radicalized individual sonly inspired by al-Qa`ida, the extensive criminal proceedings on the Madrid bombings refute this hypothesis. The network responsible for the Madrid attacks evolved from the remnants of an al-Qa`ida cell formed in Spain a decade earlier. It was initiated following instructions from an operative of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) and included members of the Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group (GICM), as well as two former members of the Algerian Armed Islamic Group and Egyptian Islamic Jihad. Although the network also included common criminals who radicalized into jihadists, this cell component was only a late addition.
Topic:
Islam
Political Geography:
Libya

64. An Overview of Syria's Armed Revolution

Author:
Derek Henry Flood
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
SINCE THE START of the Syrian uprising on March 15, 2011, it has morphed from largely peaceful mass street protests to the current climate where parts of the country are engaged in armed conflict pitting the Free Syrian Army (FSA) against the Alawite-dominated security forces of President Bashar al-Assad. Syria's demonstrations began in the wake of the largely successful revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia and in the midst of the violent regime responses to their counter parts in Yemen, Bahrain, and Libya. After small-scale events spiraled out of control in the southern city of Dera`a , the critical juncture in the evolution of the FSA occurred when regime forces moved into the northern town of Jisral-Shughour with heavy armor beginning on June 4, 2011, after Damascus claimed that more than 100 of its security forces were killed by rebels. The Syrian regime's countermeasures in Jisr al-Shughour created an exodus of refugees into Turkey and the declaration of the establishment of the FSA.
Political Geography:
Libya, Syria, Egypt, and Bahrain

65. The Abbottabad Documents: Bin Ladin's Security Measures

Author:
Liam Collins
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Within a mere week of his death, Usama bin Ladin asserted that “reality has proven that American technology and its sophisticated systems cannot arrest a mujahid if he does not commit a security error.” Although Bin Ladin witnessed numerous senior al- Qa`ida members killed or captured by the United States and its coalition partners over the years, his words suggest that he attributed these losses not to superior U.S. technology, but to error or carelessness on the part of individuals. He was of the view that adhering to “the required security precautions [for people] in our situation” is feasible and human error is avoidable if the mujahid is “conscious of the importance of the mission he is fulfilling and is capable of staying in hiding until the situation opens up.”
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States

66. Arc of Convergence: AQAP, Ansar al-Shari'a and the Struggle for Yemen

Author:
Christopher Swift
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
THE MAY 21, 2012, suicide attack on Yemeni soldiers parading in Sana`a's al-Sabin Square marked a turning point in Yemen's struggle against al-Qa`ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and its subsidiary, Ansaral-Shari` a. Coming two weeks after Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi's pledge to purge terrorists from “every district, village, and place,” the perpetrators cast the bombing as a retaliatory strike. “The primary target of this blessed operation was the defense minister of the Sana`a regime and his corrupt entourage,” proclaimed Ansar al-Shari`a's Madad News Agency. “It came in response to the unjust war launched by the Sana` a regime's forces in cooperation with the American and Saudi forces.”
Topic:
Regime Change
Political Geography:
Yemen, Arabia, and Sinai Peninsula

67. Between Islamization and Secession: The Contest for Northern Mali

Author:
Derek Henry Flood
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
ON JANUARY 17, 2012, a rebellion began in Mali when ethnic Tuareg fighters attacked a Malian army garrison in the eastern town of Menaka near the border with Niger.1 In the conflict's early weeks, the ethno-nationalist rebels of the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA)2 cooperated and sometimes collaborated with Islamist fighters of Ansar Eddine for as long as the divergent movements had a common enemy in the Malian state.3 On March 22, disgruntled Malian soldiers upset about their lack of support staged a coup d'état, overthrowing the democratically elected government of President Amadou Toumani Touré.
Topic:
Islam
Political Geography:
Northern Mali

68. Bin Ladin's Killing and its Effect on Al-Qa'ida: What Comes Next?

Author:
Bruce Hoffman
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Confronted with the sudden death of a leader, terrorist groups become cornered animals. When wounded, they lash out. Not only in hopes of surviving, but also to demonstrate their remaining power and continued relevance. Al-Qa`ida is no different. As its statement issued on May 6, 2011 confirming Usama bin Ladin's death declared, “The soldiers of Islam, groups and individuals, will continue planning without tiredness or boredom, and without despair or surrender, and without weakness or stagnancy, until they cause the disaster that makes children look like the elderly!”
Topic:
Islam
Political Geography:
Pakistan and America

69. The Death of Usama bin Ladin: Threat Implications for the U.S. Homeland

Author:
Philip Mudd
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
With the death of Usama bin Ladin in May 2011, Americans will be safer in the long-term. Without Bin Ladin's magnetic appeal, al-Qa`ida's revolutionary movement will likely wither and its message, combined with the peaceful revolutions in the Arab world, will lose credibility. In the short-term, however, the U.S. homeland remains at risk. In many ways, U.S. security services today face more challenges than ever before because the threat profile has become so diverse, with multiple terrorist groups and individuals—many with no connection to established terrorist organizations—intent on striking the United States.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States and Arabia

70. The JRTN Movement and Iraq's Next Insurgency

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
The stabilization of iraq has become wedged on a plateau, beyond which further improvement will be a slow process. According to incident metrics compiled by Olive Group, the average monthly number of insurgent attacks between January and June 2011 was 380. The incident count in January was 376, indicating that incident levels remained roughly stable in the first half of 2011. One reason behind this stability is the ongoing virulence of northern and central Iraqi insurgents operating within Sunni Arab communities. Five predominately Sunni provinces and western Baghdad were responsible for an average of 68.5% of national incidents each month in 2011.
Topic:
Insurgency
Political Geography:
Iraq, Baghdad, and Arabia