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71. Fragile States Index 2022 – Annual Report

Author:
Nate Haken, Daniel Woodburn, Juliette Gallo-Carelli, Asa Cooper, and Dylan Souquet
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Elections, Fragile States, Political stability, Violence, Crisis Management, Innovation, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Sudan, Libya, Brazil, South America, North Africa, Haiti, Somalia, Mali, Guinea, Sahel, Global Focus, and Lake Chad Basin

72. Violent Fraternity: An Interview with Dr. Shruti Kapila

Author:
Shruti Kapila and Mahia Bashir
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:
Historical considerations of modern South Asia have been marked by a predisposition towards political, material and socio-cultural analyses. Seldom has the remit of ideas as autonomous objects taken centre stage in the historiography of modern South Asia. Shruti Kapila’s new book Violent Fraternityveers off this established trajectory and breaks new ground by looking at ideas as the wellspring of political innovation and fundamental to the republication foundations of the nations of India and Pakistan during what she terms the ‘Indian age’. A work of remarkable scope that defies easy summarisation, the premise of Violent Fraternity is that violence became fraternal in 20th-century India: it was the intimate kin rather than the colonial other that became the object of unprecedented violence. “Violence, fraternity and sovereignty,” Kapila writes, “made up an intimate, deadly and highly consequential triangle of concepts that produced what has been termed here the Indian Age” (p.4) India’s founding fathers, who as opposed to the conventional figure of the detached scholar-philosopher were also actively straddling echelons of the political world, repeatedly engaged with the question of how to forge life with others in an intimate context rife with hatred and violence. In seeking these answers, they authored a new canon of political thought that defied “fidelity to any given ideology, whether it be liberalism, Marxism or communism”. As Kapila demonstrates, global political thought of the Indian age departed from its western counterpart by reconceptualising the place and potential of violence. In the western canon, the state has been the natural habitus of violence. However, Indian political thinkers like Tilak and Gandhi dissociated violence from the orbit of state, and in a radical rewriting of established political vocabularies, posited violence as an individual capacity, thereby reconceptualising the notion of sovereignty and summoning a subject-centred political horizon. Dr. Shruti Kapila is an Associate Professor of Indian History and Global Political Thought at the University of Cambridge and presently the Co-Director of the Global Humanities Initiative. Her research centres on modern and contemporary India and on global political thought in the twentieth century. In her recent book Violent Fraternity and in her earlier work on intellectual history of modern India, Dr. Kapila has pushed the boundaries of the field beyond its conventional focus on the West. In our interview, we spoke about modern India’s founding fathers and their intellectual contributions, writing global intellectual histories of the non-west, the future of the field of global intellectual history and Dr. Kapila’s engagements beyond her illustrious academic career.
Topic:
Politics, History, Intellectual History, and Violence
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

73. COVID-19 and Violent Actors in the Global South: An Inter- and Cross-Regional Comparison

Author:
André Bank, Yannick Deepen, Julia Grauvogel, and Sabine Kurtenbach
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This Working Paper examines the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on state and non-state violent actors in the Global South. We provide an ACLED-based interregional map-ping of trends in Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. Cross-regional case comparisons shed further light on the similarities and differences of countries characterised by long-term armed conflict (Colombia, Iraq, Nigeria) or having transitioned from authoritarianism but facing inequality and political exclusion (Chile, Tunisia, South Africa). We identify a temporal variation: Initially, state armed actors’ new responsibilities to implement COVID-19–related control measures led to an increase in violence against civilians, but over time there was a decrease. We also find that COVID-19 had an early demobilising effect vis-à-vis protest and mob violence, a consequence of lockdowns and mobility restrictions. Yet, protest has quickly returned to pre-pandemic levels in many countries, underlining continued – sometimes aggravated –grievances. Moreover, different violent actors’ responses to the pandemic were decisively shaped by their respective conflict histories
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Protests, Violence, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global South

74. Resilience to Violent Extremism in Serbia: The Case of Sanjak

Author:
Predrag Petrovic and Marija Ignjatijevic
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
This paper presents the factors enabling the environment for extremism and the resilience factors to violent extremism in the case of Sanjak. Many experts had gloomy forecasts about violent Islamist extremism and terrorism in Serbia. Sanjak – the southwest region in Serbia populated by Muslim majority – was even dubbed Jihadist hotbed, as it was the center for further spreading ultra-conservative Salafism from the neighboring Bosnia and Herzegovina into Serbia, and a region where the recruitment of Syrian foreign fighters took place. Among the most influential militant Salafi leaders in Vienna who maintained contacts with ISIS there were individuals from Sanjak. However, despite these forecasts and the presence of both push and pull factors of violent extremism, Sanjak has proved to be very resilient to violent Islamist extremism. Compared to other countries in the Western Balkans, a relatively small number of people from Serbia (49 of them including women and children) joined militant Islamist groups in Syria. Only a few incidents involving militant Salafis and failed terrorist plots happened. People in Sanjak showed both resilience to violent extremism and to the spread of the ultra-conservative interpretation of Islam. In this paper, we first identify the cases of violent extremism and then map and analyze factors that make Sanjak enabling environment for extremism. The second part of the paper is dedicated to understanding key resilience factors to violent extremism showcased in Sanjak. Ethno-nationalism and far-right extremism are only analyzed as possible drivers of Islamist radicalization. This report is based on extensive field research in Belgrade, Novi Pazar, Sjenica, and Tutin between July and September 2021, during which a total of 25 interviews were conducted.
Topic:
Security, Violent Extremism, Violence, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

75. A New Era of Sectarian Violence in Pakistan

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A local jihadist group and a violent protest movement are driving renewed sectarian strife in Pakistan. To prevent a slide back into violence, Islamabad should ensure those inciting or perpetrating violent acts are prosecuted while denying hardliners the civic space to propagate their hatred.
Topic:
Religion, Protests, Violence, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Asia

76. Addressing Islamist Militancy in the Southern Philippines

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The transition to self-rule in the Bangsamoro, the majority-Muslim region in the southern Philippines, is proceeding apace. Militants outside the associated peace process are losing strength but could recover. Regional and national authorities should do all in their power to keep that from happening.
Topic:
Religion, Governance, Conflict, and Violence
Political Geography:
Philippines and Oceania

77. Violence as A Form of Political Conduct: The Case of the Islamic State

Author:
Jülide Karakoç
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
Following Hannah Arendt’s approach, which distinguishes power and violence and claims that violence appears when power is threatened or fails, this paper argues that the use of violence by Islamic State (IS) is a result of its inability to establish a stable power base in the Middle East. It argues, however, that violence has become a form of political conduct for this organisation, which challenges to Arendtian perspective rejecting any role violence plays in politics and has many repercussions in Middle Eastern societies and politics. This paper notes that local people feel hatred and rage against certain developments in the region, such as their countries’ colonial past, the Iraqi invasion and their failed administrations. Analysing how these reactions are directed in the form of violence by IS against some local groups, the paper examines further the regional consequences of the IS’ use of violence.
Topic:
Politics, Islamic State, Violence, and Hannah Arendt
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

78. Fault Lines in Civilizations and Right-Wing Extremism: Germany's Experiment with Domestic Responsibility Vs. International Obligation

Author:
Stefy Joseph and Rhea Anthony
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The first decade of the twenty-first century had, very spontaneously, associated right-wing terrorism mostly with Islamic extremist terrorism. However, events from the second decade of the same century seem to provide a deviation in such a narrative. This is mostly due to the rise in crimes committed by far-right groups that are not Islamist (Blackbourn et al, 2019). Scholars have drawn in particular on the work of Ehud Sprinzak, who describes right-wing terrorism as a particular form of terrorism that is distinctly characterized by split delegitimization. These terrorist groups lead off by developing antagonism and conducting acts of violence against groups that they deem to be ‘illegitimate’ - groups that do not belong to their milieu of humanity. Violent confrontations and threatening the state are secondary; however, once assured that the government in power is being negligent in fulfilling the demands of the ‘legitimate’, they begin to reject the government and flout the laws. They, thus function on a dual process of delegitimization that first delegitimizes the unaccepted aggregate and later delegitimizes the government.
Topic:
Terrorism, Conflict, Violence, Militant Islam, and Radical Right
Political Geography:
Global Focus

79. Situation Analysis Paper: Hate Speech and its Implications on Civil Peace and Social Harmony

Author:
Yahya Qaoud and Da'd Mahmoud
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The paper presents a set of recommendations to reduce hate-based violence and promote civil peace without prejudice to the freedom of opinion and expression by enacting deterrent laws and procedures at the official and unofficial levels to raise awareness about hate speech and its dangers.
Topic:
Civil Society, Freedom of Expression, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East and Palestine

80. Advancing Youth Inclusion and Violence Prevention through Public Support Programmes

Author:
Jasmina Brankovic
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:
State-run socio-economic and livelihood support programmes have been shown to increase the social inclusion of young people and thereby contribute to the prevention of violence involving youth. This practice brief outlines strategies for civil society practitioners to advocate for these public programmes, improve their implementation and amplify their positive effects, based on experiences in Southern and East Africa.
Topic:
Youth, Violence, Inclusion, and Livelihoods
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, and East Africa