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151. Post-war Prospects for Nagorno-Karabakh

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The 2020 war over Nagorno-Karabakh left many issues unresolved and the front lines volatile. The parties should establish a formal communication channel to address urgent post-war problems, Russian peacekeepers need a clearer mandate and aid agencies must be granted access to the conflict zone.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Peacekeeping, Conflict, and Violence
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Caucasus

152. Mali: Enabling Dialogue with the Jihadist Coalition JNIM

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Authorities in Mali seem to be considering negotiations with Jamaat Nusratul Islam wal-Muslimin, the country’s largest Islamist insurgency. Pursuing talks will be a tall order, given the stakes and the group’s al-Qaeda connection. Both the government and the militants should begin with incremental steps.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Terrorism, Conflict, Violence, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

153. Asking my Sisters Intergenerational Voices of Women from the Moro Islamic Liberation Front in Mindanao

Author:
Berghof Foundation
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Berghof Foundation
Abstract:
In this booklet female ex-combatants from the Moro Islamic Liberation Front - Bangsamoro Women's Auxiliary Brigade (MILF-BIWAB) and their daughters in Mindanao share their stories from the region’s post-conflict reconciliation process.
Topic:
Conflict, Violence, Peace, and Gender
Political Geography:
Asia and Philippines

154. Preventing and addressing violent extremism A conceptual framework

Author:
Maja Halilovic Pastuovic, Gillian Wylie, Karin Göldner-Ebenthal, Johanna-Maria Hulzer, and Veronique Dudouet
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Berghof Foundation
Abstract:
This paper represents the theoretical framework behind the PAVE project that aims to tackle the issue of radicalisation by examining its root causes and driving factors. The project is based on a comparative assessment of local communities' vulnerability or resilience to violent extremism in seven countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iraq, Kosovo, Lebanon, North Macedonia, Serbia and Tunisia.
Topic:
Violent Extremism, Violence, Local, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Africa, Iraq, Europe, Middle East, Kosovo, Serbia, Lebanon, Tunisia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia

155. Mali: Enabling Dialogue with the Jihadist Coalition JNIM

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Authorities in Mali seem to be considering negotiations with Jamaat Nusratul Islam wal-Muslimin, the country’s largest Islamist insurgency. Pursuing talks will be a tall order, given the stakes and the group’s al-Qaeda connection. Both the government and the militants should begin with incremental steps.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Negotiation, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

156. Self-defence Militias and State Sponsorship in Burkina Faso

Author:
Viljar Haavik
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Burkina Faso has been engulfed in an ongoing conflict with jihadist insurgent groups active across the Sahel in West Africa. The conflict originally started in Mali in 2012 and later spread to Niger. In June 2021, the worst attack in Burkina Faso since 2015 occurred in the village of Solhan, where suspected jihadists massacred 160 civilians.[1]Naturally, discussions in the media revolved around who perpetrated the attack, but the attack also brought to the forefront the role of self-defence groups or militias in the Burkina Faso conflict. While the use of armed militias in Burkina Faso has become widespread and is actively sponsored by the State, there are concerns that self-defence militias perpetuate conflict. The main reasons are that self-defence militias in Burkina Faso are exacerbating mutual distrust, tension and violence among different communities, while the use and State sponsorship of militias are exposing the civilian population to reprisals from the insurgents who perceive them as a threat. The result is that President Roch Marc Kaboré may be doing more harm than good by creating self-defence militias under the legal framework of the Volunteers for the Defence of the Homeland (VDPs) adopted unanimously by Burkina Faso’s Parliament in January 2020.
Topic:
Politics, Governance, Violence, Militias, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Africa and Burkina Faso

157. The Interaction of Mass Media and Social Media in Fuelling Ethnic Violence in Ethiopia

Author:
Muna Shifa and Fabio Andres Diaz Pabon
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Social media platforms play a prominent role in modern society by providing tools for various voices to communicate ideas, perspectives and worldviews. Such potential has been illustrated by the role of these platforms in supporting social movements, mobilisation in defence of the environment, and the defence of marginalised communities and groups across different latitudes.[1]However, in many instances, social media has also been used to spread misinformation, broadcast hate speech, and incite violence. The role of social media has been documented as interacting and co-creating narratives with mass media in contexts of conflict. We understand mass media as a diverse set of media platforms that use mass communication to reach a large audience and operate within visible organisational structures. Platforms such as radio, television, newspapers, and magazines are examples of mass media. We define social media as decentralised broadcasting platforms that allow users to create and share content as well as engage in social networking. Facebook, Twitter and YouTube are examples of social media platforms. The role of social media and its interaction with mass media in relation to conflicts remains a growing area of study, particularly after the Arab Spring.[2] The Arab Spring highlighted the importance of social media in social mobilisations leading to uprisings and the emergence of armed conflicts. It illustrated how conflicts and even armed action can be coordinated via social media platforms (as in Syria and Iraq). Despite this, the role of social media and its interaction with mass media in fuelling tensions across ‘ethnic’ groups in armed conflicts remains an under-researched area. Thus, while social media and mass media appear ubiquitous, little research has been conducted to examine how traditional mass media and social media interact in fuelling ethnic conflict.
Topic:
Civil Society, Mass Media, Social Media, Ethnicity, and Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

158. The Risk of Violent Extremism and Terrorism in the Coastal States of West Africa

Author:
Festus Aubyn
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The activities of violent extremist and terrorist groups in West Africa have been on the rise since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since January 2021, high-profile attacks by groups affiliated with the Islamic State (ISIS) and Al-Qaeda have been recorded in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Although the Sahel region of West Africa is currently the epicentre of violent extremism and terrorism (VET), the threat is gradually spilling over into the littoral States along the Gulf of Guinea (GoG).[1] Several coastal States along the GoG have recently either witnessed attacks or identified the presence of terrorist groups in parts of their territory.[2]Ghana provides a clear example of the contagion effects of VET in the coastal States, although the countryhas not witnessed any direct terrorist attacks. In July 2021, the Minister of Information, Kojo Oppong Nkrumah, affirmed this and noted that ‘terrorist groups operating in West Africa have managed to recruit some Ghanaians to aid their cause.’[3] Unlike its neighbouring countries, like Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire that are experiencing terrorist attacks, Ghana has managed so far to prevent attacks despite its vulnerabilities. This raises critical questions about Ghana’s seeming resilience against the risk of VET and how it is responding to the scourge. This article probes these questions by examining the factors that render Ghana vulnerable to, and at the same time resilient to, VET. It also assesses Ghana’s response to the threat and concludes with some policy recommendations.
Topic:
Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Violence, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

159. Climate-related Peace and Security Risks in Africa

Author:
Kheira Tarif and Anab Ovidie Grand
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The effects of climate change are felt globally in frequent and severe disasters, increasing temperatures, and changing rainfall, with significant implications for society. Climate security acknowledges that climate change can undermine peace and increase levels of violence by affecting the drivers of conflict.[1] Somalia, South Sudan, and Mali are all exposed to climate change, face complex security challenges, and host large peacekeeping forces. Increasing temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, droughts, and floods have disrupted livelihoods and forced migration in three African countries. Climate change contributes to farmer-herder competition over land and water. Elites take advantage of climate-related disruptions by exploiting marginalised groups, as do armed groups seeking to recruit youth. The relationship between climate change and insecurity has been recognised in multilateral organisations with a mandate in climate, peace and security (CPS) in Africa. The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has included climate security-specific language in country situation and peacekeeping mission resolutions, which has led to the creation of an Environmental Security Advisor position in the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM).[2] The African Union (AU) is advancing analysis and responses to CPS across Africa, including in high-level fora and in coordination with Regional Economic Communities (RECs).[3] The European Union (EU) is a global leader in development aid and climate finance, and several of its Member States have been instrumental in international climate diplomacy and CPS discussions.[4] This article[5] discusses climate change and conflict and describes a risk-based approach to investigating links between the two.[6] It further outlines relevant climate data and context-specific climate vulnerabilities in Somalia, South Sudan, and Mali and analyses five themes in CPS in the three countries. The article concludes with recommendations for institutional responses. The research is based on a review of academic literature and institutional reports. Early versions of case studies formed the basis of consultations with government ministries, thematic experts, and CPS practitioners.[7]
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Violence, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Africa

160. From Cattle Raids to Violence: A Processual Analysis of the Baragoi Massacre in Northern Kenya

Author:
Willis Okumu
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
In pre-colonial times, young men from pastoralist communities in Northern Kenya conducted cattle raids to enable their households or clans to replenish decimated herds after droughts or to acquire livestock for the payment of bridewealth.[1]Today, such raids are carried out mainly to solidify ethnic-based group identity for political competition or as resource scrambles.[2] Mobilisation for large cattle raids is carried out with ethno-nationalistic orientations that seek to entrench ‘us’ versus ‘them’ narratives as a prerequisite for the raids.[3] Although cattle raids are carried out by warriors (circumcised young men between the age of 15 and 30), the violence that accompanies the raids is significantly fuelled by ethnic identity politics and ethno-nationalistic mobilisation involving politicians and the educated elite.[4] In the town of Baragoi in Kenya, major raids and massacres have occurred after periods of mobilisation based on ethnic identities. In this article, a massacre is described as the intentional, indiscriminate murder of a group of people due to their socio-political orientations, such as ethnic identity or political allegiance. Unlike cattle raids of the pre-colonial era in which the aim of violence was to acquire cattle forcefully, recent massacres among pastoralists in Northern Kenya are intended to convey a message of incompatibility between two or more communities within a common geographical area (often in-land and in boundary zones). Disputes between communities may be aimed at forcefully evicting political opponents and their supporters from a common area in the run-up to a competitive political period, thus denying them a chance to cast their ballots. Massacres may arise out of such disputes and may be perpetrated to ensure a win for the organisers of the massacre. This article, therefore, examines the processes of violence escalation based on the assumption that the escalation of conflict into violence elucidates the contested relationships between two warring groups.[5]
Topic:
Violence, Pastoralism, Massacre, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa