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1. A New Policy Toolkit Is Needed as Countries Exit COVID-19 Lockdowns

Author:
Olivier Blanchard, Thomas Philippon, and Jean Pisani-Ferry
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The measures that most governments took in response to the sudden collapse in economic activity during the COVID-19 lockdowns nearly exclusively focused on protecting vulnerable workers and firms. These measures included unemployment benefits, grants, transfers, loans at low rates, and tax deferrals. As lockdowns are lifted, governments must shift policies toward supporting the recovery and design measures that will limit the pain of adjustment while preserving productive jobs and firms. This Policy Brief explores how such measures can be designed, with particular emphasis on Europe and the United States. The authors propose a combination of unemployment benefits to help workers, wage subsidies and partially guaranteed loans to help firms, and debt restructuring procedures for small and medium-sized companies handicapped by excessive legacy debt from the crisis.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Government, Labor Issues, Unemployment, and Coronavirus
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

2. Does Employment Protection Affect Unemployment? A Meta-analysis

Author:
Philipp Heimberger
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
Despite extensive research efforts, the magnitude of the effect of employment protection legislation (EPL) on unemployment remains unclear. Existing econometric estimates exhibit substantial variation, and it is therefore difficult to draw valid conclusions. This paper applies meta-analysis and meta-regression methods to a unique data set consisting of 881 observations on the effect of EPL on unemployment from 75 studies. Once we control for publication selection bias, we cannot reject the hypothesis that the average effect of EPL on unemployment is zero. The meta-regression analysis, which investigates sources of heterogeneity in the reported effect sizes, reveals the following main results. First, the choice of the EPL variable matters: estimates that build on survey-based EPL variables report a significantly stronger unemployment-increasing impact of EPL than estimates developed using EPL indices based on the OECD’s methodology, where the latter relies on coding information from legal provisions. Second, we find that employment protection has a small unemployment-increasing effect on female unemployment, compared with a zero impact on total unemployment. Third, using multi-year averages of the underlying data tends to dampen the unemployment effects of EPL. Fourth, product market regulation is found to moderate the effect of EPL on unemployment.
Topic:
Labor Issues, European Union, Employment, Unemployment, and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

3. Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS)

Author:
Avani Kapur and Meghna Paul
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) is a flagship scheme of the Government of India (GoI) which aims to provide at least 100 days of guaranteed wage employment in a financial year to every rural household that demands work. Using government reported data, this brief reports on: Trends in GoI allocations and releases and total expenditures; Trends in employment provided and wages paid; Physical assets created and status of work completion.
Topic:
Government, Budget, Rural, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

4. Pandemic, informality, and vulnerability: Impact of COVID-19 on livelihoods in India

Author:
Surbhi Kesar, Rosa Abraham, Rahul Lahoti, Paaritosh Nath, and Amit Basole
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:
We analyze findings from a large-scale survey of around 5000 respondents across 12 states of India to study the impact of COVID-19 pandemic containment measures (lockdown) on employment, livelihoods, food security and access to relief measures. We find a massive increase in unemployment, an equally dramatic fall in earnings among informal workers, large increases in food insecurity, depletion of savings and patchy coverage of relief measures. Two-thirds of our respondents lost work. The few informal workers who were still employed during the lockdown experienced more than a fifty percent drop in their earnings. Even among regular wage workers, half received either no salary or reduced salary during the lockdown. Almost eighty percent of surveyed households experienced a reduction in their food intake and a similar percentage of urban households did not have enough money to pay next month's rent. We also use a set of logistic regressions to identify how employment loss and food intake varies with individual and householdlevel characteristics. We find that migrants and urban Muslims are significantly worse off with respect to employment and food security. Among employment categories, self-employed workers were more food secure. The Public Distribution System (PDS) system was seen to have the widest reach among social security measures. However, even under PDS, 16 percent of vulnerable urban households did not have access to government rations. Further, half of the respondents reported not receiving any cash transfers (state or central). We conclude that much more is needed in the way of direct fiscal support that has been announced thus far by state and central governments in India.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, Employment, Unemployment, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
India

5. Pulling Lebanon out of the Pit

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
An uprising of unprecedented scope has rocked Lebanon as the country’s economy tumbles deeper into recession. Poverty and unemployment could lead to violent unrest. Donors should put together an emergency package but condition further aid upon reforms to tackle corruption, a major grievance driving protest. What’s new? The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Lebanon’s economy, which was already slowly imploding, has brought it to the brink of total collapse. Since October 2019, popular protests have pushed for greater accountability from an elite that, having engorged itself, seems incapable of instituting critical reforms. Why does it matter? The accumulation of crises is driving ever greater numbers of Lebanese into absolute poverty. While the lockdown is gradually easing, the loss of jobs and purchasing power triggered new protests that are turning violent and may prefigure the disintegration of state capacity and institutions. What should be done? Lebanon will need emergency external assistance to ward off the worst social consequences of the crisis. Beyond that, external actors and donors seeking to help the country exit the crisis should focus on efforts geared at rooting out corruption and clientelism.
Topic:
Corruption, Poverty, Protests, Crisis Management, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

6. Imagining a Resolution of Venezuela’s Crisis

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Venezuela’s political showdown appears deadlocked. President Nicolás Maduro remains firmly in place over a year after the opposition behind Juan Guaidó mounted its campaign to supplant him. The gap between the sides is wide, but conversations with pragmatists reveal the outlines of a potential compromise. What’s new? Talks to resolve Venezuela’s political crisis broke down in September, and January’s government takeover of parliament dims prospects of their resumption. While the outlines of a possible agreement are visible, the government’s unwillingness to compromise and the opposition’s lack of realism have, so far, put a solution out of reach. Why does it matter? The country is mired in political conflict and continues to suffer from hyperinflation, high levels of criminal violence, crumbling public services, severe poverty and malnutrition. Millions have emigrated, provoking a regional refugee crisis. What should be done? Outside parties with ties to either side should put forward a possible settlement – including measures to ensure a level playing field ahead of 2020 parliamentary polls and, later, a presidential election, together with the gradual lifting of U.S. sanctions – and press both to accept it as a basis for negotiations.
Topic:
Crisis Management, Unemployment, and Nicholas Maduro
Political Geography:
South America and Venezuela

7. Comovement of Home Prices: A Conditional Copula Approach

Author:
Lei Hou, Wei Long, and Qi Li
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Even though housing markets in different areas are relatively localized, regional home prices have become closely correlated and tend to be simultaneously affected by many national economic factors. In this paper, through the dynamic copula model, we confirm that regional home price dependence is time-varying and the conventional time-invariant copulas underestimate the degree of dependence during economic expansions and recessions. In essence, the U.S. residential real estate market has become more integrated since the mid-1980s. Using the conditional copula model, we further identify how the dependence among regional housing markets evolves along with some fundamental economic factors such as unemployment rate and interest rate. These findings can help investors and home buyers to better identify and evaluate the systematic risk in the nationwide housing market.
Topic:
Economics, Unemployment, and Housing
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

8. Moment of truth: Mali teeters between President Keïta and the protest movement

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
President Keïta is currently facing a mass movement demanding he step down. Decrying rampant corruption, election rigging, a collapsing economy and rising unemployment, a lack of security, and ethnic conflict, the movement sees his ouster as the first step toward a fourth republic and democracy.
Topic:
Corruption, Democracy, Protests, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

9. Morocco’s SocioEconomic Challenges: Employment, Education, and Migration – Policy Briefs from the Region and Europe

Author:
Dina Fakoussa and Laura Lale Kabis-Kechrid
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Even though the Moroccan king’s readiness to introduce reforms in response to the mass protests in 2011 has prevented the kind of radical change occurring in many other countries in the MENA region and has maintained the country’s relative stability, Morocco’s social peace remains fragile. Social unrest has flared recurrently, most prominently in the Rif region, as socio-economic grievances persist. The country continues to suffer from significant regional disparities, a poor education system, and high unemployment, especially among the young.
Topic:
Education, Migration, Employment, Protests, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Europe, North Africa, and Morocco

10. Socio-Economic Challenges and the Impact of Regional Dynamics on Jordan: Employment, Social Cohesion, and International Cooperation – Policy Briefs from the Region and Europe

Author:
Dina Fakoussa and Laura Lale Kabis-Kechrid
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Jordan’s stability is severely challenged by socio-economic hardship. The country is plagued by high un-employment rates, an alarming debt-to-GDP ratio of around 94 percent, corruption, and dismal social ser-vices. The fight against terrorism has also resulted in further infringement of rights such as freedom of expression. These grievances have led to a series of protests and strikes in the past two years; the latest strike by teachers has had a far-reaching impact on the public.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Terrorism, Employment, Economy, Freedom of Expression, Protests, Unemployment, and Social Cohesion
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Jordan