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41. Towards Greater Nuclear Restraint: Raising the Threshold for Nuclear Weapon Use

Author:
Tytti Erästö
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
This report focuses on the risks that a lack of nuclear restraint pose for international security. On the one hand, the problem has to do with uncertainty regarding the first use of nuclear weapons, which has increased in recent years as a result of technological developments, political tensions, and the deadlock in nuclear arms control. On the other hand, there is a longer-term trend of a lowering nuclear threshold in response to WMD proliferation threats by non-nuclear weapon states. After identifying some of the most problematic aspects of the current nuclear policies of the five nuclear weapon states (NWS), the report makes the case for greater restraint, including recommendations for reducing doctrinal ambiguity and more credible assurances that the threshold for nuclear weapon use remains high. The report also seeks to provide conceptual tools for a broad international dialogue on nuclear doctrines, based on a recent agreement by the NWS to pursue such dialogue in the 1968 Treaty on the NonProliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT) context.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Disarmament
Political Geography:
Global Focus

42. Strengthening Global Regimes: Addressing the Threat Posed by Chemical Weapons

Author:
Ian Anthony
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The inadequate response to the use of chemical weapons by a state against its own population was an important catalyst leading to the creation of the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). A great deal has been achieved under the CWC, which is an important example of how multilateral cooperation can succeed. Recent cases of confirmed use prove that the task of eliminating chemical weapons is not complete. Chemical weapons are once again being used on the battlefield and as terror weapons. Moreover, their use in targeted attacks against politically exposed persons presents a new challenge to the commitment made by CWC states parties that chemicals will be developed and produced exclusively for peaceful use. When they come together to review the CWC in late 2020, the states parties will have to assess whether their response to the challenges posed by the use of chemical weapons has been proportionate to the threat. If not, then they will have the responsibility to create the new capacities, invent the new instruments and develop the new initiatives that will make their efforts more effective. This SIPRI Policy Paper provides an explanation of the context for some important recent decisions and an analysis of them. It also proposes some actions that CWC states parties could take together in support of the effort to eliminate the threat of chemical weapons.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, War, Weapons, Disarmament, and Chemical Weapons
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

43. Looking for a bridge over troubled waters: the forthcoming New Pact on Migration and Asylum

Author:
Angeliki Dimitriadi
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
On the occasion of the World Refugee Day, 20th of June, ELIAMEP publishes a Policy Brief on the forthcoming New Pact on Migration and Asylum, by Dr. Angeliki Dimitriadi, Senior Research Fellow and Head of ELIAMEP’s Migration Programme. COVID-19 has affected access to asylum. Border closures have prevented in many cases asylum seekers from reaching safety, or made them face prolonged delays in their asylum application. The New Pact on Migration and Asylum is expected to be announced by the end of June. It is one of the biggest challenges facing the current European Commission, which is called upon to submit proposals that will be accepted by the Member States with different perspectives but also asylum and immigration needs. The biggest challenge, however, is to ensure that the right and access to asylum is fully preserved and will be a priority for the Union for years to come. In the midst of ongoing conflicts, extreme poverty and increasingly restrictive practices at the external border, it is perhaps the last chance to ground a common migration and asylum policy on the the principles of humanity and solidarity, between Member States and towards asylum seekers. The New Pact for Asylum and Migration will seek to bridge the differences between Member States on the solidarity, burden-sharing and common asylum processes. Southern member states have tabled a detailed proposal on the way forward grounded on mandatory solidarity. Forced movement will continue and likely be exacerbated due to the impact of COVID-19 in critical regions like Africa and Southeast Asia.
Topic:
Migration, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Refugees, Borders, Asylum, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

44. If you can dream it, you can do it? Early thoughts on the New Pact on Migration, and the impact on frontline States

Author:
Angeliki Dimitriadi
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Dr Angeliki Dimitriadi, Senior Research Fellow; Head of ELIAMEP Migration Programme, discusses some first thoughts about the New Pact on Migration and Asylum of the European Commission, which was presented this week. The Pact promotes a future where Europe looks inward. Proposal is based on an integrated vision for returns but not for reception. Mandatory flexible solidarity is the new way forward. The Pact introduces critical changes to Dublin but responsibility remains with first country of arrival. Deterrence remains the norm.
Topic:
Migration, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Asylum
Political Geography:
Europe

45. Mexico and the United States: a new beginning | México y Estados Unidos: un nuevo comienzo

Author:
Agustín Barrios Gómez, Henry Cuellar, Juan Carlos Baker, and Kenneth Smith
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Mexican Council on Foreign Relations (COMEXI)
Abstract:
North America started 2020 as a bloc of three democratic countries with shared values that trade freely in the context of regional peace and cooperation. We are nearly 500 million North American citizens who came together to sign the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) of 1994 and its successor, the United StatesMexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) of 2018, providing a legal framework for commercial freedom on our continent. The world often conducts its affairs with a zero-sum game mentality, meaning that one country’s gain is another’s loss. This is why agreements like NAFTA, in 1994, and the USMCA, today, are particularly valuable. It is also the reason that we must not take them for granted. The effort invested in creating the USMCA was born precisely from the understanding of a fundamental idea: restricting the liberty of our people to trade freely is a mistake. It was not an easy case to make. The current U.S. president based his political campaign on animosity towards Mexico, in particular, and against exchange with the world, in general. However, he was led to a position of saving free trade in North America by the millions of his fellow citizens who saw their economic livelihood threatened by protectionism and the possibility of severing close economic ties with their neighbors. At the same time, a sector of Mexican society that has always been antagonistic to two pillars of trade in our continent: integration with the United States, and economic freedom, came to power in Mexico. This raised the specter of a challenge to free trade from Mexican socialists. However, the overwhelmingly positive results and obvious benefits of NAFTA for Mexico were of such magnitude, that protectionism was not an issue in the return to power of the nationalist Left. It now looks like a given, but both in the case of the U.S. and in the case of Mexico, the survival of the framework of openness born on January 1, 1994, is a testament to enormous political and economic success. In a world that increasingly favors the Pyrrhic victories of political symbolism, the triumph of reason over nativist fervor is well worth highlighting. For each of the three countries, the USMCA was the way to protect these gains, but each country placed its own emphasis on their priorities. Canada, currently the most politically stable country of the three, clearly sought to uphold a system that provides the country with access to its main market, as well as to another market (Mexico) in which it has fewer interests, but which is still important. The United States, the former architect of the world order that promoted economic freedoms for 71 years (1945-2016), was set to become its spoiler. Fortunately for the general interest, despite the rhetoric, with the USMCA it was possible to find a compromise that safeguarded the gains made from economic integration since 1994. Sectors of society, such as farmers and border communities which had never organized to defend their markets, got together to successfully make their case directly to the Administration. Mexico’s interests were clearer: manufactured exports are the most dynamic and competitive part of its economy. They not only provide a major source of hard currency, but in conjunction with the imports made possible by income from exports, they support the internal market, as well. For Mexico, even more than for Canada, protecting free trade of North America was imperative. The result was an Agreement that protected the benefits of North American commercial freedom, at the same time as it brought certain aspects up to date. It also addressed a number of the concerns that had been raised by blue collar workers in the United States, particularly pertaining to the automotive sector. This document helps us understand these changes and provides perspective from three authors who were directly involved in making the USMCA a reality.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Economy, NAFTA, Free Trade, Trade, and USMCA
Political Geography:
North America, Mexico, and United States of America

46. The Transformation of the European Union: The Impact of Climate Change in European Politics

Author:
Xira Ruiz-Campillo
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
It is evident that climate change has impacted our lives and our environment. Without any doubt, it was developed countries the most responsible for accelerating that change in our climate although developing countries are increasingly greatly contributing to it. It is our responsibility as human beings to leave future generations with a better world or, at least, not one worse. We are not the owners, but only the casual dwellers of a planet that has given us the opportunity to live and to enjoy a breathtaking environmental wealth that we must preserve. It is the duty of all countries and citizens to take care of what we have been given for the years we are here, and it is our responsibility to analyse the best way of doing that. This is the introduction to a book that is a collective effort made by eight women concerned and united by the research on climate change, sustainability and cooperation policies within the European Union. This work tries to shed light on the evolution the European Union has experienced since 1992 in its fight against climate change in the search of a more sustainable Europe. Without wanting to be exhaustive, the book aims to depict the evolution of the European Union’s policies on climate, cooperation, sustainability, security, economy and energy with the final aim of being a trustworthy and reliable actor at the international level. The impact that international agreements on climate, cooperation and sustainability have had on European policies is analysed in different chapters.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Europe

47. Has the Ghost that Ruined the Country Been Resurrected? The Puzzle of South Korea’s Domestic and Foreign Policies

Author:
Jimmyn Pare
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Under changing dynamics such as US-China relations, the domestic and foreign policies of South Korea’s new government under President Moon Jae-in have shown favor to China and North Korea, which is somewhat contrary to previous administrations that maintained pro-American policies. This situation is very similar to the geopolitical circumstances of the Joseon Dynasty during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries before Korea was occupied by Japan. This article analyzes and compares the geopolitical situations and Korea’s domestic and foreign policies of the two periods. By doing so, this article argues that policy makers should be more prudent when deliberating what should be achieved in order to enhance the future of Korea, rather than how to ensure their own personal legacy or ambition for political power.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Reunification
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea

48. The implications of a no-deal Brexit for the EU

Author:
Jannike Wachowiak
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
As the end of the transition period nears, the EU must prepare for a fundamentally different and more conflictual relationship with the UK. Whatever the outcome of the Brexit negotiations, there will be profound economic, political and geopolitical implications for the EU. While the EU as a whole might be better placed than the UK to absorb the economic shock of a no-deal, the fallout within the EU will be uneven, resulting in winners and losers. The asymmetrical impact and differential capacity and willingness of national governments to mitigate the shock could exacerbate regional disparities and unbalance the EU’s internal level playing field. As such, it might become more difficult to maintain the same level of EU unity post-no-deal.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
Britain and Europe

49. European and African perspectives on asylum and migration policy. Seeking common ground

Author:
Olivia Sundberg Diez, Matthias Lücke, Leonie Jegen, and Franzisca Zanker
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
If the EU and its member states are to manage migration successfully, they need to start treating countries of origin and transit, especially in Africa, as equal partners. The Union must make a conscious effort to negotiate comprehensive agreements on mobility that reflect both sides’ interests, concerns, and political realities. The European Commission is currently finalising its proposed New Pact on Migration and Asylum to re-start the debate on how to reform the Common European Asylum System and manage migration from outside the EU. One prominent aspect is the ‘external dimension’: jointly managing migration with countries of origin and transit. In this 2020 MEDAM Assessment Report, the authors explore how European and African governments can reach common ground on policies related to migration and mobility.
Topic:
Migration, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Refugees, and Asylum
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

50. The upcoming New Pact on Migration and Asylum: Will it be up to the challenge?

Author:
Alberto-Horst Neidhardt and Olivia Sundberg Diez
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
A courageous and ambitious New Pact on Migration and Asylum is one that strengthens the right to asylum; sets the conditions for more equal relationships with third countries when it comes to managing migration; and puts forward a mechanism that can foster genuine solidarity between member states. When the new Commission entered into office in December 2019, it promised a fresh start on migration, breaking the deadlock between member states on long-awaited reforms. Unfortunately, based on a range of leaked papers and official (draft) documents that have been circulating since late 2019, it seems that the Commission may opt to reduce the New Pact to a collection of watered-down compromises on responsibility-sharing. It also appears to be doubling down on control-oriented measures. This Discussion Paper argues that a different approach is needed to set up an EU asylum and migration policy that is efficient, respects asylum seekers’ fundamental rights and can prevent and meaningfully address future humanitarian emergencies.
Topic:
Migration, Treaties and Agreements, Refugees, and Asylum
Political Geography:
Europe