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52. A large amount of noise and smoke
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Iran’s attacks against the US in Iraq accomplished what was intended
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Conflict, Strategic Stability, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
53. Jordan’s Path in 2021: Trends and Scenarios
- Author:
- Zaid Eyadat
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
- Abstract:
- In an increasingly complex region, Jordan, for decades an oasis of stability, has carved for itself a moderating and stabilizing role in a region that is often viewed as immoderate and unstable [1]. Jordan’s strategy lays with maintaining a leading and peace-making role that has enabled it to limit instability. The Middle East is not getting any simpler. In a region with a complicated history, and distinctive ideologies and sects, geopolitical shifts are inevitable, and predicting the future could be an unattainable goal. Nevertheless, accuracy in reading current geopolitical changes and key trends along with their implications will, and should, help Jordan mitigate risks, maintain stability, and preserve its regional role. The Center for Strategic Studies (CSS) at the University of Jordan, presents potential scenarios to anticipate the future of Jordan and the region, in an attempt to understand the geostrategic and political changes that have occurred or are expected to take place and their impact on Jordan in the years to come. This study, titled “Jordan’s Path in 2021: Trends and Scenarios” aims to reveal the underlying significance and future implications of major emerging internal and regional key trends. It ought to provide correct predictions for shifts in geopolitical power balance, which will help policymakers make informed and knowledgeable decisions. CSS is delighted to share the results of the January survey carried out in 2021 and wishes to thank the 174 experts who participated in it. The results include the experts’ assessment of key trends in Jordan, as well as key trends related to other countries, such as the GCC, Turkey, Israel, Iran, and Egypt. It will be interesting to monitor how the trends play out over the next few months and to assess its precautions on Jordan.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, Geopolitics, Strategic Stability, and Future
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Egypt, Jordan, and Gulf Cooperation Council
54. Promoting Peace and Stability in the Maritime Order Amid China’s Rise
- Author:
- Rachel Esplin Odell
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- A shift in the balance of maritime power in the Indo–Pacific region is contributing to rising tensions. This shift is accompanied by a mismatch in perceptions between the United States and China, which is in turn driving a dangerous great-power rivalry at sea. China’s growing presence, assertive behavior, and expansive claims in the maritime domain are also provoking a backlash among China’s neighbors and even some countries far from its shores. While these tensions have thus far remained under control, they could erupt into conflict if not carefully managed. To promote peace and stability in the South China Sea and beyond, the United States should pursue a bilateral détente with China in the maritime domain while also promoting the development of a more inclusive regional and global maritime order. The specific steps the United States should implement include: • Incentivize reduced militarization of the disputes in the South China Sea and East China Sea, and support compromise between China and other claimants to maritime jurisdiction and rights; • Significantly reduce the frequency of freedom of navigation operations, and instead promote bilateral and regional agreements on military activities at sea; and • Build more robust maritime crisis-management mechanisms with China.
- Topic:
- Maritime, Crisis Management, Peace, Strategic Stability, and Militarization
- Political Geography:
- China, United States of America, Indo-Pacific, and South China Sea
55. Preparing for the Nightmare: Readiness and Ad hoc Coalition Operations in the Taiwan Strait
- Author:
- Mark Stokes, Yang Kuang-shun, and Eric Lee
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- Taiwan’s (Republic of China, ROC) defense readiness can be viewed from both strategic and operational perspectives. In our report, readiness is measured by both (1) the degree to which Taiwan’s government and civil society are prepared to counter coercion by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and (2) the degree to which the ROC armed forces can carry out its mission. Given the increasing likelihood of CCP use of force against Taiwan in the foreseeable future, it is in the interests of the United States and the ROC governments to improve overall defense readiness. This report evaluates the threat environment Taiwan faces and details its strategic and operational readiness, as well as the utility of ad hoc coalitions. In addition, the report highlights future opportunities for U.S. policymakers to strengthen the United States and Taiwan’s readiness in pursuit of the shared goal of peace and stability in a free and open Indo-Pacific region.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Strategic Stability, Coalition, and Readiness
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
56. A Peacekeeping Mission in Afghanistan: Pipedream or Path to Stability?
- Author:
- Ryan Van Wie
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
- Abstract:
- This article analyzes how an international peacekeeping operation (PKO) can support an intra-Afghan peace settlement by mitigating information and commitment problems and fostering compliance during the settlement’s implementation phase. To frame the information and commitment problems currently hindering an intra-Afghan settlement, I briefly review noncooperative bargaining theory, its application to civil conflicts, and how PKOs can lessen mutual uncertainty and foster stability. Anchoring this research on Afghanistan, I analyze the first peacekeeping mission in Afghanistan, the 1988–1990 United Nations Good Offices Mission in Afghanistan and Pakistan (UNGOMAP). UNGOMAP’s eventual failure to foster peace highlights Afghanistan’s complexities and the dangers of an insufficiently resourced PKO operating in a state without a viable, incentive-compatible settlement. I apply these lessons to policy analysis, where I explore possible PKO options and their potential for incentivizing compliance with a future intra-Afghan deal. Though a viable PKO currently seems improbable given Afghanistan’s ongoing violence and the Taliban’s insistence on the complete withdrawal of foreign forces, future conditions may change, and I highlight necessary prerequisites where a PKO may become possible. If designed properly, an Afghanistan PKO can fill a critical monitoring and verification capacity and bolster Afghanistan’s prospects for long-term stability.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Peacekeeping, Military Intervention, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
57. Double or Nothing? The Effects of the Diffusion of Dual-Use Enabling Technologies on Strategic Stability
- Author:
- Alexander H. Montgomery
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
- Abstract:
- Left unchecked, the diffusion of dual-use enabling technologies—such as additive manufacturing, artificial intelligence, and advanced communication technologies—may pose threats to strategic stability. The rapid development of these technologies by the United States and its allies and partners has taken place primarily in the private sector, and is largely stored and transported in easily-diffused digital formats. If diffusion occurs, it could lead to significant innovation in, or even transformation of, competitors’ military forces. Enabling technologies can be particularly dangerous since they can have a feedback effect by accelerating innovation itself. Rapid shifts in the balance of military forces due to adoption of these technologies by competitors can, in turn, threaten strategic stability. To counter these threats, the United States and its allies and partners need a common awareness of the factors that enable and constrain technological diffusion, adoption, and transformation. In order to deepen understanding of how these developments are most likely to impact international security and contribute to the creation of mitigating policies, this paper develops a model of the pathways through which enabling technologies could affect strategic stability, drawing on the literatures on technological invention, innovation, and evolution; nuclear proliferation; and conventional arms flows. Diffusion of inventions can occur through four pathways: buy, beg, steal or copy; yet none of these pathways guarantee successful diffusion of technological inventions, and are subject to a variety of countermeasures. Moreover, there are significant downstream hurdles to adopting these technologies and using them to transform military forces. Consequently, while some diffusions may have a significant multiplicative effect, many may have little or no net effect on strategic stability. Policymakers must carefully and consider specific technologies and strategically act to effectively limit those that pose the greatest danger.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Strategic Stability, and Emerging Technology
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
58. China Pakistan Ties: Challenges and Implications for the region (2013-2018)
- Author:
- Rabia Bashir
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- South Asian Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- China’s active role in South Asia is based on a “win-win” approach which is also beneficial for the economic progress of the regional states. China’s rapid economic integration represents its intention to maintain peace and stability in its vicinity. To hold its presence in the Indian Ocean region it is developing strong economic and trade ties with South Asian states. This region has become a center of attention where the interests of major powers China, India and the United States intersects. The joint venture of “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor” strategically holds huge significance for China, Pakistan and major powers like India and the US being rival to China. This corridor will enhance the economic conditions of not only China and Pakistan but also the other developing and the landlocked states of CARs and Afghanistan.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, Peace, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, China, and Asia
59. Security, Stability, and Counter-Terrorism in Idlib: A Turkish Perspective
- Author:
- Serhat Erkmen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- In Idlib, armed groups can be categorized under three conglomerates: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Syrian National Army (SNA), and radicals led by Hurras al-Deen (HaD). Among these three anti-government groups, HTS is the strongest one. Though the SNA’s Idlib branch has more manpower than other groups, HTS has superiority in terms of discipline, organisation and weaponry.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Governance, Counter-terrorism, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
60. The EU and the Med: Is Geography Still Destiny?
- Author:
- James Moran
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Europe needs to find ways of reinvigorating its relations with MENA countries to bring stability in its southern neighborhood and Mediterranean region.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Geography, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Mediterranean