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81. Automation, Global Value Chains and Functional Specialization

Author:
Lionel Fontagné, Ariell Reshef, Gianluca Santoni, and Giulio Vannelli
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
We study how technology adoption and changes in global value chain (GVC) integration jointly affect labor shares and business function specialization in a sample of 14 manufacturing industries in 14 European countries in 1999– 2011. Our main contribution is to highlight the indirect effect of robotization on relative demand for labor via GVC integration. To do this, we develop a methodology to separately account for robots in the total capital stock. Increases in upstream, forward GVC participation directly reduce labor shares, mostly through reductions in fabrication, but also via management, marketing and R&D business functions. We do not find any direct effects of robot adoption; robotization affects labor only indirectly, by increasing upstream, forward GVC integration. In this sense robotization is “upstream-biased”. We also study novel channels through which rapid robotization in China shaped robotization in Europe and, therefore, GVC participation. This highlights an understudied way by which the global integration of China has affected relative demand for labor in its trading partners.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Automation, and Global Value Chains
Political Geography:
Global Focus

82. The Shapeshifting Evolution of Chinese Technology Acquisition

Author:
Matthew Brazil
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Smuggling, a critical tool of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to acquire technology to enhance its defense industrial base, is reemerging in the wake of the US Government’s technology controls. Diversion—falsifying the end-user—is another common tactic that the Party has successfully used to acquire critical technology, including dual-use items that it would have been otherwise unable to obtain. Talent attraction is an underrated part of technology acquisition that the CCP has promoted in academia as well as in the corporate sector to help advance its technology ambitions. Foreign businesses have been willing to engage in technology transfer in return for potential access to the PRC market. This tradeoff frequently has not paid off for these firms.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Trade, Smuggling, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:
China and Asia

83. Kubernetes: A Dilemma in the Geopolitical Tech Race

Author:
Sunny Cheung
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
US-sanctioned Huawei has significant influence in the Cloud Native Computing Foundation and its open-source platform Kubernetes, which underpins US military platforms, including F-16 fighter jets and nuclear infrastructure. The use of open-source technologies in critical systems raises concerns. Despite US efforts to mitigate risks, Kubernetes remains tempting to exploit for attackers. Open source fosters global innovation, from which the United States benefits. But this same openness also strengthens US competitors. The United States should therefore develop a clear framework to understand and mitigate the challenges posed by open source.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Sanctions, Geopolitics, Innovation, Strategic Competition, and Huawei
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

84. Economic and Technological Zones: Economic Strategy in the Tibet Autonomous Region

Author:
Devendra Kumar
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
New Economic and Technology Development Zones (ETDZs) in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) are focused on pockets of the Han population, which will exacerbate tensions within the region. The Tibetan economy is already largely under Han control (except for in the agriculture and livestock sectors), and Han people constitute the majority group in many of Tiber’s urban centers. The TAR government has set up the zones to import practices from elsewhere in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and shift the region’s economy away from traditional sectors and toward export-oriented industries, construction, and even high-tech manufacturing. The TAR’s external trade is currently limited to Nepal, due to ongoing border tensions with India. Meanwhile, infrastructural challenges hampering the development of the Sichuan-Tibet railway or national highways connecting the TAR with other provinces suggest that further integration with the rest of the PRC remains some way off. In a related policy, the PRC has developed border towns strategically located near land border ports that it has built along its borders with India, Nepal, and Bhutan. Infrastructure buildup on the border could also serve a dual-use purpose in the case of a conflict, as has been the case in India in recent years.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Manufacturing, Trade, and Autonomy
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Tibet

85. PRC Transfer of Military and Dual-Use Technology: the Case of the International Conference on Defence Technology

Author:
Matthew Bruzzese
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The International Conference on Defence Technology (ICDT), held biannually since 2018, exemplifies an approach by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to leverage defense technology from Western researchers. The conference features participation from PRC defense entities and Western scientists, facilitating direct transfer of advanced defense technology insights to the People’s Liberation Army. The Military-Civil Fusion development strategy has increased the absorption of foreign S&T knowledge for military purposes. Research with any PRC institution operates under the premise that anything with potential military applications will be utilized for defense purposes. Despite increased awareness of PRC’s tech transfer efforts, Western researchers continue to attend PRC-hosted conferences with military affiliations, exposing them to risks of being probed for sensitive information and potential espionage activities.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Defense Industry, and Dual Use Infrastructure
Political Geography:
China and Asia

86. “Leonardo Da Vinci: Yapay Zekâ Işığın Bilgeliği / Cern’den Nasa’ya İnsanlık Ve Metaverse” Dijital Sergisinin Beden Teması Bağlamında İncelenmesi

Author:
Cansu Kösem İşık
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
Bilişim İletişim Teknolojilerinin (BİT) gelişimiyle birlikte beden hızla dijitalleşmektedir. Bedenin bu durumu, tüm algı ve deneyim pratiklerinin köklü bir şekilde değişmesi sonucunda meydana gelmektedir. Hareketli ekranlar, datalar ve kodlarla etkileşim içinde olan beden, bu teknolojik araçların bir uzantısı haline gelmiştir. Artık tüm dijital araçlar bedenle iç içe geçmiş durumdadır. Bu noktada arzu, eğlence, özgürlük gibi pratikler bedeni biçimlendirmenin araçları olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Bu makalede, bedeni biçimlendiren bir eğlence pratiği olarak Leonardo da Vinci: Yapay Zekâ Işığın Bilgeliği / CERN’den NASA’ya İnsanlık ve Metaverse dijital sergisi incelenmiştir. Bu bağlamda bedenin dijital çağdaki durumunu kavramak amaçlanmıştır. Makalede yöntem olarak dijital otoetnografi yöntemi kullanılmış; araştırmacı kendisini inceleme nesnesi, başka bir deyişle dijital sergiyi deneyimleyen olarak ele almıştır. Bu bağlamda inceleme, Walter Benjamin’in optik bilinçdışı, sanat eserinin aurası – sezgisel algısı – ve kullanım değeri üzerine olan düşünceleri, Rosi Braidotti, Katherine Hayles, Amber Case’nin posthüman beden kuramı ve Friedrich Nietzsche’nin yabancılaşma konusundaki düşünceleri ekseninde gerçekleştirilmiştir. Araştırma sonucunda ise, bedenin teknoloji dolayımlı olduğu görülmüştür. Bedenin bu hali, dijital endüstrinin yerleştiği, aktığı ve bedeni yeniden üreterek sistemin işlerliğini sağladığı bir alan olarak anlaşılmıştır. Beden, BİT’in alanıyla eklemlenerek, algısal bir çeşitliliğe açılmıştır. Bu çeşitlilikle haşır neşir haldeki beden, kendine odaklı aynı zamanda hikayeden yoksun bir forma kavuşmuştur. Diğer yandan, dijital sanat eserinin içindeki beden de yeniden üretilmiş, bağlamından kopartılmıştır. Deneyimleyen beden tükenen ve tüketen bir forma evrilirken, eserin içindeki beden de benzer bir duruma evrilmiştir.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Digital Art, and Body
Political Geography:
Global Focus

87. AI Policy in EU Illiberal Democracies: The Experience in Hungary and Poland

Author:
Filip Konopczyński
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
This paper examines the emergence of AI policies in Hungary and Poland under illiberal governments, and highlights their potential social and political consequences, particularly for democratic values and civil and fundamental rights. It focuses on the adoption of AI in the public sector, encompassing research and development, public administration, law enforcement, migration, and economic policy. In their AI policies, both countries’ governments have prioritized industry demands and subordination to the expectations of large foreign corporations (which is inconsistent with their digital sovereignty rhetoric). Meanwhile, they have neglected societal consultations and the needs of the scientific community. The AI policies implemented in Hungary and Poland by the Fidesz and Law and Justice (PiS) parties) have been characterized, respectively, by centralization and fragmentation, with varying outcomes. The AI systems deployed do not safeguard citizens’ rights as the political takeover of the justice system and partisan control of law enforcement have undermined redress mechanisms and limited legal protection from AI-related violations. The increasing use of AI in election campaigns, coupled with the lack of democratic oversight, increases the risk of mass disinformation campaigns and electoral manipulation in both countries. The cases of Hungary and Poland highlight some key implications for democracy and human rights in the EU where illiberal actors control AI policies and governance and disregard these values. The new EU AI Act may offer some protection for the rule of law and individual rights, but its potential loopholes could allow the unlawful deployment of AI systems in vital areas. AI policies in both countries have reflected their governments’ illiberal tendencies, expanding their control over citizens and curtailing democratic processes. The centralized governance raises concerns about the potential for mass surveillance and censorship, while the lack of transparency and inclusivity in AI policymaking could further marginalize minority groups and vulnerable populations. However, there are key steps that the EU can take to address these issues.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Domestic Politics, Artificial Intelligence, and Illiberal Democracy
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and Hungary

88. Rethinking Industrial Policy for Central and Eastern Europe

Author:
Michal Hrubý
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is increasingly important in the EU’s manufacturing landscape. The region’s export-oriented economies became an integral part of it through foreign direct investment—supported primarily by EU funding, including Cohesion Policy programs for regional and industrial development, and by national state spending. With its competitiveness at stake, the EU now focuses on industrial policy for cutting-edge technologies with high capital intensity. Many of its new regulations loosen state aid rules to allow generous support by governments to attract investors, which poses a problem for member states with less fiscal room to do so, including the CEE countries. This report discusses the opportunities and challenges for CEE countries to build manufacturing with potential to grow and to increase domestic value-added. It examines two case studies in the region: batteries and semiconductors, and their position in the value chains in Czechia and Hungary. Hungary has become one of the EU’s leading battery industry hubs and plays a key role in the drive toward self- sufficiency in this field. Its success came principally through government spending on investment promotion. Key issues have arisen regarding the environmental sustainability of new investments, the decision to attract cheap foreign labor without any appropriate long-term labor policy, and the lack of knowledge spillover from multinational companies to small and medium domestic ones to improve their value-chain position. New large investments announced by Chinese companies also raise geopolitical and security issues. With its broad innovation and R&D strategy and record low unemployment, Czechia did not make attracting large investments a priority before the COVID-19 pandemic. This has changed and its semiconductor industry is well- placed to draw in new investments in the micro- and nanoelectronics value chain. Czechia has started to support the industry through state aid for a handful of domestic and foreign companies, due to its strategic importance, its high value-added in production output, and the opportunity for stimulating R&D and high-skill employment. These case studies reveal key takeaways for Central and Eastern Europe. First, industrial policy based on state aid in small open economies are costly and will not generate long-term benefits if it is oriented solely at production tasks as in the past. Investment must bring innovation and R&D. Second, CEE countries should make financing innovation and R&D the priority, not subsidizing new manufacturing projects. They should rationalize their policy objectives and update and stick to their national strategies. Third, tight budgets and financial consolidation put pressure on selecting projects for state aid. Governments should not provide this aid without a solid cost-benefit analysis of the investments. Fourth, the CEE countries should consolidate the too broad innovation priorities within their national strategies and analyze their long-term growth potential. Fifth, industrial policy must be accompanied by appropriate labor and education policies to support the green and digital transition.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

89. Protecting Undersea Infrastructure in the North American Arctic

Author:
Heather A Conley, Sophie Arts, Kristine Berzina, and Frida Rintakumpu
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
In response to recent incidents damaging undersea energy infrastructure and communication cables in the Baltic Sea and High North, NATO countries have intensified their focus on critical undersea infrastructure (CUI) protection on the national, bilateral, and multilateral levels. Allies in the North American Arctic can build on important NATO initiatives but, given distances and the unique operating environment in this theater, the responsibility for protecting CUI assets in territorial waters will fall primarily to the United States, Canada, and the Kingdom of Denmark. CUI in the North American Arctic is currently limited. But climate change, the green energy transition, and greater reliance on artificial intelligence (AI) will increase the demand and opportunity to expand communication cables and energy infrastructure in the region. At the same time, increased traffic and resource exploration heighten the vulnerability of these assets, especially to deliberate attack from Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Both powers rely on dual-use assets that increase plausible deniability, and they continue to develop undersea warfare capabilities. To enhance resilience and protect CUI in the North American Arctic, the United States and its NATO allies are strongly encouraged to: • urgently upgrade US as well as NATO allies’ situational awareness and presence in the air, space, and undersea domain, cooperating closely with the private sector • prioritize and upgrade the role of NATO’s Allied Maritime Command (MARCOM) to conduct CUI threat assessments and identify assets that are especially vulnerable due to their strategic importance, location, complicated ownership structure, or symbolic value • expand US and NATO response options to counter hybrid threats and deter CUI attacks; consider establishing an additional maritime high-readiness force • increase NATO’s presence to protect and defend nearby assets during and after Russian and PRC naval maneuvers • build on NATO’s Digital Oceans Initiative to enhance and integrate unmanned systems and AI information processing tools into exercises and operations • identify counterparts in other national governments to ensure quick and seamless information sharing following CUI incidents • deepen public-private cooperation as well as government oversight over privately owned CUI to incentivize the private sector’s CUI resilience (e.g. fortifying cables, integrating monitoring capabilities, and ensuring adequate repair capabilities) • clarify responsibilities of CUI protection and defense across the civil, military, and private sectors, including the transition of responsibilities from the Department of Homeland Security to the Department of Defense in crisis situations • train and exercise crisis decision-making processes with the involvement of all relevant actors (including the private sector and state and local authorities) on the national, bilateral (Canada and the Kingdom of Denmark), minilateral, and multilateral levels • clarify and enhance legal frameworks to respond to CUI incidents in territorial and international waters, and share best practices across all sectors • use pro-active strategic communication to outline legal and military authority in responding to CUI incidents, attributing attacks, and enhancing deterrence against future threats.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Infrastructure, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, North America, Arctic, United States of America, and Baltic Sea

90. Russian Propaganda Efforts: Historical Continuities Accompany Technological Changes

Author:
John Katzka
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
As public affairs officer at the US embassy in Moscow, I had the opportunity during the last years of the Soviet Union to engage with and at times respond to its propaganda efforts. My personal impressions and the conclusions I drew from them form the basis for the observations below. Whether something constitutes propaganda often depends on your point of view. The Oxford English Dictionary defines propaganda as “information that is often biased or misleading, used to promote a political cause or point of view.” Propaganda, in other words, is not analytical, although it may pretend to be. It seems to me that any one-sided presentation is in its essence propagandistic. The promotion of US foreign policy may be as propagandistic as that of any other country. Ours is “good” propaganda only because we are on the side of the angels. There are three overarching influences on the role of propaganda in a particular country: first, that country’s underlying culture; second, its form of government (in the case of Russia, authoritarianism); and third, the role of media-related technology.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Culture, Authoritarianism, Propaganda, and Soviet Union
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia