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31. U.S.-China Competition and Military AI: How Washington Can Manage Strategic Risks amid Rivalry with Beijing

Author:
Jacob Stokes, Alexander Sullivan, and Noah Greene
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
Two tectonic trends in the international security environment appear to be on a collision course. The first trend is the intensifying geopolitical rivalry between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC or China). The second trend is the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, including for military applications. This report explores how the United States can manage strategic risks—defined as increased risks of armed conflict or the threat of nuclear war—that could be created or exacerbated by military AI in its relationship with China. It begins by providing an overview of China’s views on and policies toward AI. Beijing sees AI playing roles in both its civilian economy and the modernization of its military, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). At home, Chinese leaders want to leverage AI to boost growth and innovation, address economic and social challenges, and secure the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) domestic rule. AI also plays a key role in China’s military ambitions, especially its goal to become a “world-class military” by midcentury, in part through the “intelligentization” of its forces. Intelligentization relies on integrating AI and other emerging technologies into the joint force with the goal of gaining an edge on the United States. China argues that its governance model, including its military-civil fusion policy, gives Beijing a competitive advantage over Washington. Realization of that vision, however, remains uncertain and will require China to overcome external and internal obstacles.
Topic:
Security, Military Affairs, Artificial Intelligence, Rivalry, and Competition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

32. Cold War rivalry on Brazil’s and Argentina’snuclear programs: examining military and civilian intentions

Author:
André Luiz Cançado Motta and José Paulo Silva Ferreira
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Institution:
Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Abstract:
The objective of this article is to investigate whether Cold War rivalry influenced the development of nuclear programs in Brazil and Argentina. The research employs a qualitative approach and bibliographic analysis of primary sources, including articles, books, and other relevant sources. The main hypothesis is to examine whether the culture of Cold War rivalry stimulated the development of nuclear programs in these countries, analysing the military and civilian intentions behind their nuclear technologies. While it is commonly reported that Latin America was under the influence of the United States (US) and the Soviet Union (USSR) during the Cold War, the cases of Brazil and Argentina show the opposite. Both countries adopted independent nuclear policies, seeking technological transfer through diversified and autonomous partnerships. Additionally, these divergent positions included arguments and actions regarding their respective nuclear policies. However, mutual distrust between Brazil and Argentina regarding the advancement and sophistication of their nuclear programs generated a dynamic similar to the Cold War in the Southern Cone region. This dynamic originated internally based on the logic of the two countries, despite the later creation of joint non-proliferation mechanisms.
Topic:
Cold War, Nuclear Weapons, Politics, History, Rivalry, Military, and Nuclearization
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, and South America

33. Book Review: Sebastian Rosato, Intentions in Great Power Politics: Uncertainty and the Roots of Conflict (Yale University Press, 2021)

Author:
Orhan Mehmed Irfan
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Students and practitioners of International Relations have always been wondering whether the effects of anarchy can be mitigated, where anarchy stands for the absence of hierarchical organization among states. In other words, is it possible for states to abandon their endemic suspicions and anxieties, and start to trust each other? Sebastian Rosato, with his timely and much needed work, concludes that this cannot be the case and those who foresee rosy scenarios for the United States (US)-China rivalry are, to put it mildly, mistaken.
Topic:
Power Politics, Book Review, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Global Focus, and United States of America

34. Breaking the Stalemate in the Study of the Relationship of Mutual Military Buildups, Arms Races, and Militarized Disputes: The Greece-Turkey/Ottoman Empire Cases

Author:
Ioannis Nioutsikos, Konstantinos Travlos, and Magdalini Daskalopoulou
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
The most recent surveys on the study of the connection between mutual military buildups, arms races, and military interstate disputes (MID) warn of research projects, especially in the case of the Greece-Turkey dyad, that have reached a stalemate. This is due to the difficulty of capturing motivations, which constitute the main variable that turns mutual military buildups into arms races. Using the Greece-Ottoman Empire and Greece-Turkey dyads as proof-of-concept cases, we advance a novel approach for analyzing the interrelation between mutual military buildups, arms races, and MIDs that can overcome that stalemate. We suggest a two-stage approach that focuses on the dyad as a unit of analysis. In the first stage, which we preset here, we use rivalry to divide dyad history into periods of differing subsistence military spending. We then locate periods of mutual military buildups in the different rivalry periods of a dyad history. We argue that this process provides a more nuanced and detailed grasp on the presence of mutual military buildups in a dyad. It also provides the foundation for the future second stage of analysis, where qualitative research can focus on the specific periods of mutual military buildups to unearth indicators of motivation.
Topic:
Ottoman Empire, Rivalry, Arms Race, and Military
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Greece

35. Awakening Peripheries in the Great Power Clash Zone: Can Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia Come Together?

Author:
Jakub Korejba
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
This essay explores the consequences of the fact that states of Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia face a structural problem of the same nature: they are all located at the periphery of the main centers of global development and, for a major part of their contemporary history, were subject to external structural forces that perceived them as objects of great power rivalry (the “Eurasian Rimland,” as Halford Mackinder put it) and not as subjects of international politics. These countries are or at least should perceive themselves as a bridge between the East, West, North, and South due to their location between the “Eurasian Heartland” (also Mackinder) and the coastal “Sea Powers” (Nicholas Spykman). Unfortunately, this also puts them exactly in the “clash zone” of virtually every potential conflict between maritime and continental powers. This specific position has historically determined conditions for their development (or the lack thereof), and for a long time made the development of direct horizontal ties between them impossible. For most of their history, the political, economic, and cultural ties that they could have potentially maintained with each other were either non-existent or vertical, effectuated through the respective geopolitical center that dominated them. Although now formally independent for more than 30 years, this still remains the case—as most of the countries located in those three areas finds themselves not strong enough to challenge the old, new, or potential hegemon interested in keeping them in a subordinated condition. From the point of view of Moscow, Beijing, Brussels, or Washington, it makes little sense to let Warsaw, Baku, or Astana elaborate the sort of horizontal ties with each other (or others in their respective neighborhoods) that could potentially make each of them more (much less fully) resistant to the pressure of great powers still intent on instrumentalizing as a playground for their ongoing power struggle.
Topic:
History, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, Rivalry, and Periphery
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and South Caucasus

36. Navigating Africa’s Digital Partnerships in a Context of Global Rivalry

Author:
Folashadé Soulé
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
As African governments focus on developing their digital infrastructures, choosing global partners depends on which one is best able to meet their national digital priorities. But increasing tension between geopolitical rivals and digital powers, such as China and the United States, has made the decision-making process even more complex. As part of the Negotiating Africa’s Digital Partnerships policy research project, African ministers, policy makers and other stakeholders were interviewed to determine how these partnerships are negotiated. The interviews revealed that China has played a major role in Africa’s digital economic development. As a key strategic partner, China offers more affordable options than its Western counterparts through financing backed by Chinese grants and loans that have enabled the development of network infrastructure and internet access across the continent. The policy brief concludes with recommendations on how African governments can get the most from these partnerships.
Topic:
Development, Geopolitics, Rivalry, and Digital Partnerships
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and United States of America

37. China’s Use of Force in Territorial Disputes: Discontinuities Between Land and Sea

Author:
Benjamin Jebb
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
When does China use force to settle territorial disputes? This paper leverages data from the Correlates of War project and Stanford’s Mapping Interstate Territorial Conflict repository to demonstrate that China takes different approaches to settling terrestrial and sea-based disputes. While China has tacitly accepted the territorial status quo and generally used force only after a rival challenged extant terrestrial boundaries, it has initiated revisions to the territorial status quo in the maritime domain. This paper contends that China takes different approaches to its terrestrial disagreements and maritime disputes due to the Chinese Communist Party’s internal risk calculus. While land-based disputes can stoke unmanageable levels of escalation, factors specific to the maritime domain are more likely to keep militarized incidents contained.
Topic:
Security, Territorial Disputes, Maritime, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China and Asia

38. New Leaders Challenged by US-China Rivalry

Author:
Catharin Dalpino
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
Over the summer three Southeast Asian nations—Thailand, Cambodia, and Indonesia—conducted political contests or prepared for them, with Washington and Beijing watching closely for shifts in alignments or opportunities to make inroads with new leaders. Despite this, and possibly because of it, China made bold moves in the South China Sea and caused outcry in the region with the release of a map supporting its claims to the “Nine-Dash Line.” Beijing also showed signs of worry about Russian inroads into Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific region. The high-profile visit to Washington of Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. enabled both countries to reconfirm the US-Philippines alliance publicly, although it gave little indication of where the broader relationship may be headed. ASEAN continued to make little headway in helping to resolve the conflict in Myanmar; and the 2023 chair, Jakarta attempted to redirect the group toward economic goals and a common approach to looming food insecurity in the region. However, Jakarta may be set to swim in deeper waters: Indonesia was among 20 countries invited to join the BRICS group of “middle powers,” and the only one from Southeast Asia. Jakarta deferred membership for two years in order to “consult” with regional leaders, leaving the new president to make a decision on entering the BRICS, but Indonesia is not likely to turn down the opportunity to play a greater role on the world stage.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, BRICS, Rivalry, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
China, Indonesia, Cambodia, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

39. Finding Firmer Ground: The Role of High Technology in U.S.-China Relations

Author:
Sara Hsu, Ja Ian Chong, Rorry Daniels, Hargisl Shirley Martey, and John Lee
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
The latest installment in the Finding Firmer Ground report series examines how technological advancements have increased distrust and uncertainty in U.S.-China relations. From big data to semiconductors, the multiauthor report looks into the geopolitical implications of technological development and what strategies, if any, policymakers in the United States and China can take to mitigate tensions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

40. The U.S.-China Rivalry is Changing International Supply Chains

Author:
Piotr Dzierżanowski
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
While the U.S.-China economic rivalry has been intensifying for years and is closely linked to the deterioration in political relations, the sudden collapse of supply chains caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the increased role of security considerations in economic relations and the interdependencies between China and developed countries. The American actions to reduce those links will have long-term consequences for U.S.-China relations and the economies of other countries.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Trade, Rivalry, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
China and United States of America