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21. Demographic Jigsaw: Puzzling Out a Resilient EU

Author:
Maria Gargano
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
In December 2019, for the first time, the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen assigned a portfolio containing demography as a policy area to Vice-President Dubravka Suica. As the predictions for the European Union are currently looking at a continent whose population median age is rising increasingly fast, the mission letter tasked the Vice-President to lead the response to the challenges presented by the demographic shift. The modus operandi indicated was to be supporting all the groups concerned – especially the children, the old and those living in rural areas. However, this portfolio’s objectives were not supported by an EU-specific competence to act on demography, nor a dedicated budget or service in the Commission. Also at Member States level, this matter remains scattered around different national ministries dealing with health, territorial planning, regional, interior, among others. Nonetheless, the different areas and groups of the population impacted by demographic changes have presented in the past four years multiple entry-points for the European Commission to promote initiatives such as: the care strategy, the child guarantee and lastly the demography toolbox.
Topic:
Demographics, European Union, Resilience, and European Commission
Political Geography:
Europe

22. Exploring the Potential of Minilateralism for the Europe-Mediterranean Partnership

Author:
Roee Kibrik
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The Mediterranean and Europe, as interconnected regions sharing geographical spaces and proximity, severe challenges, common interests and intertwined goals, present a compelling opportunity to explore minilateralism as a framework for fostering cooperation and developing resilience. This research examines the potential of minilateralism to contribute to the Europe-Mediterranean partnership, highlighting the rationale, objectives, potential areas of focus, and expected outcomes of promoting minilateral frameworks in this context. Two minilateral frameworks will be examined: Israel-Greece-Cyprus and Israel-Morocco-European Union (EU). Based on this examination, the research will discuss particular insights regarding these specific configurations, and general insights regarding characters, opportunities and challenges of minilateralism in the region as a way to foster the Europe-Mediterranean partnership.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, Partnerships, Resilience, and Minilateralism
Political Geography:
Europe, Israel, Greece, Morocco, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

23. Policy impacts of the Climate Change Conferences in the Mediterranean

Author:
Jérémie Fosse and Haiat Jellouli
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The Mediterranean region, a recognized climate and biodiversity hotspot, faces accelerated and multifaceted impacts from climate change, with implications for its socio-economic stability, ecosystems, and public health. Rising temperatures, extreme climate events, sea-level rise, water scarcity, and biodiversity loss threaten the environmental, social and economic foundations of the region, especially in sectors like agriculture, tourism, and fisheries taking place in densely populated areas with fragile ecosystems. Both terrestrial and marine temperatures in the region have already increased by 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This trend is expected to continue, with projections suggesting a further rise of between 0.5 and 6.5°C by the year 2100. Other alarming projections include an increase in surface water temperatures by 1 to 4°C throughout the century and a significant reduction in rainfall. Furthermore, sea levels in the Mediterranean have already risen by 6 cm over the past two decades, with an expected increase of 43 to 84 cm by the end of the century. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conferences of the Parties (COP) have been instrumental in galvanizing global attention and action on climate issues. From the early COPs that focused on foundational agreements like the Kyoto Protocol to the more recent and ambitious Paris Agreement at COP21, these conferences have played a crucial role in shaping the global climate regime. For the Mediterranean, the COP process has provided a framework within which regional and national efforts can align with broader global objectives, particularly in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing climate resilience. The Paris Agreement, with its goal to limit global warming to well below 2°C, and ideally to 1.5°C, is especially significant for the Mediterranean, where even small increases in temperature can have outsized impacts. The commitment to both mitigation and adaptation, alongside the establishment of mechanisms for climate finance, technology transfer, and capacity building, has offered Mediterranean countries the tools to confront their unique challenges. The post-COP21 era has seen Mediterranean countries implement adaptation measures in critical areas, such as water management and coastal resilience, while also working to enhance renewable energy sources like solar and wind. However, regional progress is uneven, hampered by financial limitations, political instability, and capacity gaps. Scaling up climate finance, strengthening regional cooperation, and bridging technological and institutional divides are essential for the region to meet Paris Agreement commitments effectively. The future of the Mediterranean depends on the region’s ability to build resilience and adapt to these multifaceted climate challenges. This will require enhanced regional cooperation, as no country can effectively tackle these issues in isolation. Regional frameworks such as the Union for the Mediterranean and the Barcelona Convention must be strengthened to foster collaboration on climate action, with a particular focus on shared resources like water and energy. Equally important is the need to scale up climate finance. Mediterranean countries, particularly those with fewer resources, need more robust support from international funding mechanisms like the Green Climate Fund and the Adaptation Fund. These resources must be directed towards projects that address the most pressing issues, such as water management, renewable energy infrastructure, and coastal protection. Reinforcing institutional capacity is therefore a critical step. Many Mediterranean countries face significant governance and technical challenges that impede the effective implementation of climate policies. Investing in education, capacity building, and governance reforms can help bridge this gap, enabling countries to better execute national climate plans and make use of international support. Furthermore, technology transfer must be accelerated. For Mediterranean nations to effectively mitigate emissions and adapt to climate impacts, they need access to cutting-edge technologies that can enhance energy efficiency, improve water use, and protect ecosystems. In conclusion, urgent and coordinated action is needed to safeguard the Mediterranean from escalating climate risks. Strengthening regional frameworks, enhancing access to international funding, and accelerating technology transfer will be vital in supporting Mediterranean countries. By fostering resilience through sustained commitment to climate adaptation and mitigation, the Mediterranean region can protect its future and offer valuable insights for other vulnerable areas worldwide.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Treaties and Agreements, Resilience, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:
North Africa and Mediterranean

24. An Edifying Tale of Keeping the Lights On: Societal Resilience in an Energy Crisis – the Case of Estonia

Author:
Tomas Jermalavicius, Dmitri Teperik, and Karolin Martinson
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
In 2021–23, Europe experienced a major energy shock due to a number of significant factors in the energy market. As a result of Russia’s strategy to take advantage of Europe’s dependency on its energy supply and coerce the EU into acquiescence to Russia’s geopolitical demands, the most important course-changing trigger has been the Russian war against Ukraine. A raft of urgent policy measures passed at the EU and national levels, quick adaptation of the consumers to the price signals, the availability of LNG from the US, suppressed demand in China, and a mild winter meant that a full-scale disaster was averted. However, the previous crisis being less severe than anticipated does not mean the next one will be less challenging. Estonian society’s resilience to future energy crises may determine not only the country’s internal political dynamics but also its relations with key partners, its reputation in the EU, and even the country’s long-term geopolitical prospects. In order to understand how well-prepared Estonian society is for such future crises, this study identifies and analyses the key public narratives that emerged during the 2021–23 energy crisis and investigates how they reflected on Estonian society’s perceptions and actions. The narrative analysis is complemented by survey data, which indicates how the Estonian public viewed various aspects of the crisis and its resolution, as well as the extent to which public sentiment echoes or runs counter to the identified narratives. The study highlights several key shortcomings in Estonian society’s resilience capabilities. Firstly, the lack of constructive responsiveness to warnings about plausible severe risks (i.e., power cuts) and low scores on preparedness for future energy crises show that the Estonian society does not have a mindset of crisis preparedness. Secondly, society’s lack of confidence in the government’s ability to successfully navigate such crises has the potential to undermine the relationship of trust and cooperation in similar episodes in the future. Another breakdown in resilience in the response to the energy crisis was related to the failure to maintain a just and equal distribution of risk, vulnerability, and cost. As the narrative related to the profits of the energy companies—especially state-owned ones—shows, the sense of unfair distribution of costs and benefits was pervasive and highly antagonising. As the survey showed, a responsible and competent media, effective government, and an impartial expert community were the most trusted sources of information with respect to coping with the energy crisis. These actors will have to play an important role in rebuilding the confidence lost during the energy crisis, shaping the narratives that inspire steadfast action for forging a better future for energy and climate security, and improving Estonia’s resilience.
Topic:
Crisis Management, Resilience, and Energy Security
Political Geography:
Europe and Estonia

25. Russia’s War in Ukraine: War and Society

Author:
Mykola Nazarov
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 tested the functioning of both Ukraine’s state apparatus and its entire society. During the period 2022-24, the relationships between civilian society, the political elite, and the military have reflected two distinct phases of the war. The first phase occurred during 2022 when Ukrainians were engaged an existential struggle for their nation and was marked by a surge in civic consciousness, a high level of self-organisation, and a constructive relationship between the military, elite, and civil society. From early 2023, however, the war became ‘routinised’. This second phase has been characterised by war fatigue, habituation to war as the new normal, and a division in society between those who are included in the war’s infrastructure and those who mainly focus on their own lives. In the third brief of the series, Mykola Nazarov writes that the consequent changes in trust in the political and military leadership have significantly complicated cooperation between these parts of Ukrainian society. He concludes that overcoming cleavages in society is essential in building the resilience necessary to resist an aggressor and that the consolidation of power as a response to the challenge of external aggression is to be expected, but it is not the optimal management solution. Political plurality, freedom of speech and the ability of the opposition to criticise the authorities without pressure and propose better solutions are necessary for effective governance in wartime. Also, civil-military relations need to be distanced from personalities and based on a robust culture and a framework of inter-institutional cooperation. The Ukrainian system of power has become hyper-personalised, which negatively affects its effectiveness.
Topic:
Civil Society, War, Resilience, Securitization, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

26. Japan, NATO, and the Diversification of Security Partnerships

Author:
Elena Atanassova-Cornelis, Takuya Matsuda, Bart Gaens, and Nele Loorents
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
The US-led military alliances remain an integral part of the defence and deterrence strategies of countries in the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic regions. Whereas the European security architecture is centred on a multilateral alliance, that is, NATO, the Asian security order is rooted in the hub-and-spokes system – the network of US-led bilateral alliances with key partners in Asia, such as Japan. Bringing in experts from Europe and Japan, this report examines the key shifts in the allies’ threat perceptions and strategic thinking on policy responses. It also explores the rise of informal security alignments designed to address both traditional and hybrid challenges and exemplified by the minilateral-type security cooperation pursued by Japan. Finally, the report zooms in on the growing interlinkages between security in the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic regions, as evidenced by the deepened security ties between like-minded partners. The report argues that the Russian invasion of Ukraine should be seen as a critical juncture for alliance politics. Military alliances are now increasingly being operationalised to enhance military readiness and effectively generate combat power in case of a contingency. The US-Japan alliance, the report finds, should be perceived as a manifestation of some of the broad and enduring changes in the role of alliance politics in international security, which are observable both in the Western Pacific and Europe. While the US-led alliance remains a key pillar of the security and defence policies of the ‘junior’ allies, notably Japan, the report highlights the allies’ uncertainties about the sustainability of the American security commitments, both in the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic region. Assessing Japan’s updated conceptualisation of security in the context of the Ukraine war and the rise of hybrid threats, the report detects a sense of urgency in Tokyo to develop a diverse set of capabilities and expand security partnerships. Australia, India, and the Republic of Korea remain a priority in terms of alignment cooperation. At the same time, the changing nature of security challenges is steadily raising the importance of cooperation with geographically distant partners, as seen in Tokyo’s evolving security partnership with the EU and NATO. Japan’s strategic partnership diplomacy exemplifies a broader trend of strategic diversification. Tokyo has been successful in utilising alignment policy to promote an interconnected network and accomplish issue-based, functional cooperation in various areas. From NATO’s perspective, addressing hybrid challenges requires collaboration with various actors, including geographically distant players. Minilateral and multilateral formats involving a small group of like-minded countries can provide NATO with the opportunity to work closely with Japan and other Indo-Pacific partners on specific issues, such as cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns.
Topic:
Security, NATO, European Union, Resilience, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Europe, South Korea, and United States of America

27. Czech-Russian Relations. Russian Disinformation Campaign

Author:
Andrzej Jacuch
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
After the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine and Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula, the Czech Republic became fully aware of the threats posed by the Kremlin despite President Zeman has denied the presence of Russian troops in Ukraine and has criticised the EU sanctions against Russia. Czechia belongs to the group of countries through which Russia influences the EU, to gradually and deliberately erode its structures. Russia exerts a strong influence on the Czech Republic by non-military means, including disinformation and propaganda, the activities of secret services, and penetration of its economy and specifically its energy sector. The article aims to answer the question about the role of Russian disinformation and propaganda in the context of Russian influence in the Czech Republic. The role of Russian disinformation and propaganda and how Russia influences Czechia is extensively analysed. The main hypothesis is that Russia treats the Czech Republic as a key state for espionage and disinformation activities and as a zone of influence, undermining the sovereignty of the Czech Republic and the role of NATO and the EU.
Topic:
International Relations, Bilateral Relations, Resilience, Disinformation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Czech Republic

28. The 2024 Assessment of Violent Extremism in Albania

Author:
Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Abstract:
The 2024 national assessment of violent extremism drivers, forms and threats presents a crucial update in Albania’s fight against violent extremism, enriched by an in-depth exploration of perceptions of political extremism and other emerging threats. Building on this expanded scope, the report offers actionable insights and recommendations to enhance Albania’s preventing and countering violent extremism (P/CVE) measures. The assessment seeks to inform and complement the efforts of the Albanian government and P/CVE stakeholders, to enhance resilience against the broad spectrum of violent extremism and ensure a proactive and adaptable response to protect Albanian society and its democratic values. As Albania nears a decade of implementing P/CVE strategies, it is evident that considerable progress has been made in tackling religious extremism, yet the evolving nature of violent extremism presents continuous challenges. Delving into the main forms and drivers of violent extremism, this report has been structured into three main chapters which analyze citizens’ perceptions through the lens of the socio-economic, political and cultural drivers used in previous national assessments, as well as a series of new questions aimed at exploring emerging threats.
Topic:
Security, Religion, Violent Extremism, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Europe, Balkans, and Albania

29. Urban Amenities and Trade Resilience During the Covid-19 Pandemic in Malaysia

Author:
Cassey Lee
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The main objective of this study is to empirically examine the role played by amenities in supporting growth and trade in Malaysia during the pandemic and post-pandemic recovery phases. The manufacturing sector has been an important factor in mitigating the negative impact of the pandemic. It has also been a positive driver of the country’s economic recovery. Transport, health and ICT-related amenities supported production, consumption, and trade activities during the pandemic and post-pandemic recovery periods.
Topic:
Trade, Cities, Resilience, COVID-19, and Amenities
Political Geography:
Malaysia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

30. Structural Transformation and Economic Resilience: The Case of Malaysia

Author:
Cassey Lee
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Exports have been a critical source for the resilience of the Malaysian economy during the COVID-19 pandemic and post-pandemic period. Long-term structural change in intersectoral production networks could have reduced this resilience. Stronger domestic intersectoral linkages and declining participation in backward global value chain participation are likely to reduce the impact of positive export shocks on the country’s economy. The services sector has become increasing important over time. Consumption in the services sector is clearly an important driver of growth. A positive export shock is enhanced by higher domestic intersectoral linkages in the services sector but not in manufacturing.
Topic:
Economy, Exports, Macroeconomics, Services, Resilience, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Malaysia, Asia, and Southeast Asia