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171. Early Warning and Early Action for Increased Resilience of Livelihoods in IGAD Region

Author:
Daniel Maxwell, Erin Lentz, Cori Simmons, and Gregory Gottlieb
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
Multiple calls have been issued for better preparedness, early warning, and, above all, early action to prevent hunger and malnutrition, reduce the scale of food insecurity, improve resilience, and reduce the amount of money spent on responding to crises every year. Nowhere have these challenges been greater than in East Africa. A recent study on food security information systems in East Africa noted that despite years of attention, the link from early warning to early action is still not as effective as it could be. And although conflict is a common driver of humanitarian crisis, conflict early warning and action remains especially weak. As traditional EW-EA systems struggle to meet the challenges, new initiatives are attempting to address the challenges using advanced machine learning and predictive analytics. But part of the issue is the sheer volume of information and how well it informs coherent action. Therefore, our primary recommendation is to “reverse engineer” the EW-EA system. First, consider the actions that can be taken to mitigate known or expected shocks, and then derive the information needs (including PA) from those considerations. This study was commissioned by the FAO Subregional Office for Eastern Africa to examine the links between early warning and early action (EW-EA) in East Africa. This study reviews current EW-EA systems in East Africa to identify the key constraints to improving early warning and early action, as well as practices and emerging initiatives relying on predictive analytics and machine learning, to ensure early warning systems suit the needs of decisionmakers and enable early action for improved resilience in the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) region.
Topic:
Hunger, Humanitarian Crisis, Resilience, and Malnutrition
Political Geography:
Africa

172. Resilience within Communities of Forced Migrants: Updates and the Path Forward

Author:
Sofia Curdumi Pendley, Mark Jennings Van Landingham, Nhu Ngoc Pham, and Mai Do
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
We explore the current state of the principal literature relevant to resilience and vulnerability within and among communities of forced migrants. We highlight strengths, gaps, and weaknesses in these literatures, utilizing a case study to illustrate the importance of what we deem to be essential omitted variables. We make recommendations for moving these literatures—and their associated underlying conceptual frameworks—forward.
Topic:
Migration, Humanitarian Crisis, Resilience, and Forced Migration
Political Geography:
Global Focus

173. Critical Infrastructure Protection in Europe: Strengthening Resilience Under Article 3 of The Washington Treaty

Author:
Megi Benia
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
NATO is a major military organization responsible for security in the Euro-Atlantic space. Consequently, the current security environment in the world and, especially, in Europe stimulates debates about NATO’s readiness to resist an armed attack. However, these debates are normally held around the Alliance’s Article 5 as a key component of collective defense and in this process, the principles of Article 3 are ignored, something which is a wrong approach. NATO’s Article 3 states that: “In order to more effectively achieve the objectives of this Treaty, the parties, separately and jointly, by means of continuous and effective self-help and mutual aid, will maintain and develop their individual and collective capacity to resist armed attack” (NATO, Resilience and Article 3 2020). Therefore, fulfilling obligations under Article 3 is a crucial part of the organization’s main idea of collective defense as it enables NATO to fulfil the obligations of Article 5. However, one must remember that in today’s unpredictable security situation, “capacity to resist armed attack” (NATO, Resilience and Article 3 2020) means not only military readiness. To be able to deploy rapidly during operations or a potential armed attack, military forces need the support of transport systems, satellite communications and power supplies, etc. However, it is a well-known fact that these systems are highly vulnerable during an attack in both peace and war.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Infrastructure, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

174. Between hope and despair: Pastoralist adaptation in Burkina Faso

Author:
Kars de Bruijne and Fransje Molenaar
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This report thus provides an understanding of the causes and drivers fuelling grievances that have sidelined pastoralists. To this end, it unpacks the relationship between pastoralism, conflict, and stability in Burkina Faso. The study finds that pastoralists face structural trends working against them.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Pastoralism, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Africa and Burkina Faso

175. Building European Resilience and Capacity to Act: Lessons for 2030

Author:
Roderick Parkes, Anna-Lena Kirch, and Serafine Dinkel
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Containing twelve scenarios for the world in 2030, this report offers insights into how the EU can maintain and build up its capacity to act in the face of the major disruptive changes that are likely to come over this decade. It is being released in the run-up to German elections in September 2021 that will serve as a kind of referendum on ten years of government-heavy crisis management.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Crisis Management, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

176. Ecological threats to security and state resilience in Afghanistan

Author:
Markus Gauster
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This work explores ecological and climate-related threats to Afghanistan and discusses support approaches from a European Crisis Management (ECM) perspective. It goes beyond the much-debated troop withdrawal, COVID-19 crisis and peace negotiations and opens an underestimated topic: ‘Climate Change Assistance’. The article aims to advance knowledge on the effects of climate change on human security in Afghanistan and advocates a conflict-sensitive approach. To this end, a climate-related assessment of the human security situation was undertaken and several threat scenarios, options and solutions for enhancing state resilience were developed. The bases for this research were several field trips undertaken by the author since 2004, workshops and an extensive literature review. As a result, it can be stated that the negative impacts of climate change and pollution on Afghanistan’s security and development architecture are massive and make ECM efforts very complex. However, several capacity-building initiatives for military, diplomatic, humanitarian and local stakeholders were identified. On the regional level, this includes the support for early warning systems and hydro-diplomacy with Pakistan, Iran and India. On the local level, the support for community water management and environmental protection matters, while building upon traditional Afghan mechanisms for handling water crises or disasters. Another outcome is the need for more in-depth research in this field as some findings are also useful for other fragile states. The paper argues that there is an urgent need for ECM to respond to the devastating effects of climate change in Afghanistan and identifies several smart opportunities to tackle some root causes of the conflict.
Topic:
Climate Change, Water, Crisis Management, Human Security, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia

177. Weather Index Insurance: Promises and Challenges of Promoting Social and Ecological Resilience to Climate Change

Author:
Lu Yu and Mariya Aleksandrova
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Rural communities are particularly vulnerable to weather shocks and ecosystem decline. Traditionally, farmers have adapted to climate variability and extremes through various risk management strategies, either individually or cooperatively. However, climate change amplifies the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and exacerbates environmental degradation processes. Market-based risk transfer instruments are now being developed as complements to these conventional risk management strategies to shield rural households from increasing climate risks. At present, risk transfer solutions play a central role in the global climate and development agenda. International- and regional-level initiatives such as the InsuResilience Global Partnership support vulnerable developing countries to increase their financial protection coverage through climate risk finance and insurance, including through innovative micro-level schemes such as weather index insurance. Over the last decade, index-based weather insurance has been gaining attention in the climate resilience discourse. These schemes compensate insured individuals based on a pre-defined weather index instead of individual losses, as with traditional types of insurance. Therefore, this instrument has several advantages, including greater time- and cost-effectiveness and reduced moral hazard risk. Although weather-index insurance holds great promise, there are several challenges in designing and promoting it in developing countries. First, on the demand side, there is a lack of accessibility to affordable insurance, especially for the poorest rural populations exposed to climate hazards. Second, on the supply side, insurance providers are facing an elevated risk of paying larger claims due to the increasing frequency and severity of weather extremes, while reinsurance services are often missing. Third, the ecological effects of implementing weather index microinsurance initiatives receive little attention in research and policy. Yet, protecting the environment and building ecological resilience are critical policy dimensions of climate risk management in rural regions, where the poor disproportionately depend on ecosystem goods and services for a living, as they often lack alternative livelihood strategies. Looking into the key challenges to microinsurance initiatives and drawing upon findings of a review of literature on weather index insurance and field research, this Briefing Paper derives recommendations for development cooperation, governments and insurers for an enhanced action agenda on climate risk insurance. The discussion is focused on the specific case of weather index insurance for the rural poor at the micro level. We emphasise the importance of enhancing knowledge on the potential positive and negative ecological effects of weather insurance schemes, and the need to develop a diverse set of climate risk management strategies for the poor, including social protection mechanisms.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Resilience, Weather, and Farmers
Political Geography:
Global Focus

178. Does COVID-19 Change the Long-Term Prospects of Latecomer Industrialisation?

Author:
Tilman Altenburg, Clara Brandi, Anna Pegels, Andreas Stamm, Christiaan Vrolijk, and Tina Zintl
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
This study explores to what extent the COVID-19 crisis affects the long-term prospects for industrial development. The focus of the study is on latecomer economies – those facing an uphill battle because they joined global markets at a point in time when other economies had already established global production networks. In a first step, we analyse how the prospects for industrialisation are changing, mainly as a consequence of three global megatrends: digitalisation and automation of production; global economic power shifts; and the greening of economies. These trends create new opportunities for latecomer industrialisation, but they also raise entry barriers to markets, especially for country with weak innovation systems. We then explore COVID-19 effects through the analytical lens of the pre-COVID megatrends. While the pandemic has had a severe impact on the world economy, such impacts will not change the ongoing trends fundamentally. The ongoing recovery from COVID-19 is not showing much structural transformation – despite many voices demanding to “build back better”. Yet, the pandemic is accelerating or decelerating some of the previous trends. One is the trend towards online trading. The dominance of international trading platforms may lead to concentration in “upstream” activities such as manufacturing, crowding out weaker market actors. At the same time, platform economies are boosting delivery activities, such as courier services. Another trend that may be accelerated by the pandemic is towards the reshoring of previously offshored productive tasks, yet, evidence here is mixed, and we may see other risk-hedging strategies rather than large-scale reshoring. We may also see the gap between dynamic economies in East/Southeast Asia and other developing regions widening, because the former recovered faster due to vaccination programmes and fiscal stimulus packages. Regarding the greening of economies, some major economies initiated green fiscal stimulus packages, accelerating for example the development of global green hydrogen economy. Also, the trend towards tele-work is reducing emissions from the transport sector. Overall, however, the pandemic does not seem to alter the ongoing, but slow, progress towards greener economies. We conclude with police recommendations in five domains: i) Fostering economic resilience through economic diversification; ii) the need to develop pharmaceutical and medical supply industries in all countries; iii) increased investments in digital capabilities, including the ability to regulate platform economies; iv) strengthening domestic revenue generation to increase policy space and resilience, including pro-environmental fiscal reforms; and v) improving international governance e.g. in the domains of intellectual property rights and technology-sharing.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Governance, Industrialization, Resilience, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

179. Robustness and Resilience of Supply Chains During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Findings from a Questionnaire Survey on the Supply Chain Links of Firms in ASEAN and India

Author:
Yasuyuki Todo, Keita Oikawa, Masahito Ambashi, Fukunari Kimura, and Shujiro Urata
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Using a unique firm-level data set from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and India collected from November 2020 to February 2021, this paper examines how the robustness and resilience of supply chain links – i.e. maintaining links and substituting another for a disrupted partner, respectively – were determined when firms faced economic shocks due to the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Focusing on the role of the characteristics of firms’ supply chains, we find that homophily, i.e. the tendency to form a group with similar agents, was often associated with the robustness of supply chain links, most likely because of the strength of homophilous ties. In particular, when a foreign-owned firm had a supply chain link with a firm located in the same country as its home country, the link was quite robust. We also find that the geographic diversity of customers and suppliers creates resilience of supply chains. When the demand or supply from a partner of a firm was disrupted because of COVID-19, the firm likely mitigated the damage from the disruption through substitution of partners if its supply chains were well diversified across countries. In addition, larger or younger firms tended to be resilient and robust. The robustness and resilience of supply chains are found to have led to higher performance.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Pandemic, Resilience, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
India, Asia, and Southeast Asia

180. Time to Rethink Development Assistance in the Sahel

Author:
Mark Wentling
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
The main assistance theme of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), U.S. embassies, other donors, and host government agencies in the impoverished Sahel Region of Africa has been focused for a decade on strengthening the resilience of rural households eking out a living on the edge of the Sahara Desert. More than 40 million people reside in this marginal arid geographic area, mostly pursuing subsistence agricultural and pastoral livelihoods. The countries most concerned by this effort to build rural resilience are Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Rural, Development Aid, USAID, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Africa, North America, Mali, Sahel, Niger, United States of America, and Burkina Faso