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151. Resilient Ukraine – a Delicate Mosaic? Society, Media, Security, and Future Prospects

Author:
Dmitri Teperik, Dmytro Dubov, Oleh Pokalchuk, Illia Miroshkin, ksana Iliuk, Anastasiia Apetyk, Larisa Snihur, and Grigori Senkiv
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Since 2014, after the occupation of the Crimea and part of the territories of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, Ukraine has remained the object of complex operations of influence from Russia. Effective protection from such operations is possible only if the various components of national resilience are fully explored, from regional media development to the readiness and ability of citizens to resist operations of such influence. This report combines an overview of key legal documents that address the topic of resilience in Ukraine; a description of the socio-political features of the south and east of the country; and the results of an empirical study based on data from focus groups and in-depth expert interviews, as well as significant excerpts from the analysis of public user data and discussions on social media networks. The conclusions and recommendations reflect the main practical task of this report – to improve the understanding of stakeholders in Ukraine of the mosaic-like structure and non-linear dynamics of the development of national resilience, especially its individual components in the regional context. Thus, this report is an important starting point for further applied research, as well as for practical steps to take to strengthen the informational, digital, communication, and cognitive security of Ukraine.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Communications, Social Media, Resilience, Hybrid Threats, and Society
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

152. Rosatom in Europe: Russia’s Trojan Horse?

Author:
Tomas Janeliūnas, Yuri Tsarik, and Andrea Bonelli
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
The national security aspects of nuclear energy have long been sidelined, overshadowed by the much larger geopolitical interest in gas and oil. However, Russia’s state-owned nuclear corporation, Rosatom, which is pursuing various opportunities in Europe and globally, has become part of Russia’s broader strategy to rebuild its geopolitical influence. According to some recent estimates, Russia has spent over $92 billion to support this prong of its strategy over the last ten years. The European Union (EU), however, is not fully cognisant of or properly postured to address the geopolitical and security risks accompanying Moscow’s use of Rosatom to advance its strategic interests.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, European Union, Resilience, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Lithuania, Belarus, and Baltic States

153. So Far, Yet So Close: Japanese and Estonian Cybersecurity Policy Perspectives and Cooperation

Author:
Henry Rõigas, Tomas Jermalavicius, Jun Osawa, Kadri Kaska, Liis Rebane, Toomas Vaks, Anna-Maria Osula, and Koichiro Komiyama
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Estonia and Japan are among the leaders in cyber diplomacy and cybersecurity on the global stage, Japan also being a key strategic partner for the EU and NATO. They have many similarities in their approaches to cybersecurity and state behaviour in cyberspace, which has established solid ground for closer bilateral ties. This report, authored by leading Estonian and Japanese researchers of cybersecurity policy, gives a valuable insight into the experiences and perspectives of these two countries, their success stories and challenges in building a secure cyberspace, as well as the potential for cooperation.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, International Affairs, Cybersecurity, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Japan, Eurasia, Eastern Europe, and Estonia

154. Food Systems in Conflict and Peacebuilding Settings: Pathways and Interconnections

Author:
Caroline Delgado, Vongai Murugani, and Kristina Tschunkert
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
Failing food systems and the resultant increasing world hunger are among the most pressing issues of our time. With 155 million people acutely food insecure and nearly 30 million people on the verge of starvation in 2020, the world is far off track to achieve the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal 2 (Zero Hunger) by 2030. Violent conflict remained the main driver of global hunger in 2020. Conflict has a direct negative impact on food systems and resultant levels of food security. Moreover, heightened food insecurity may create grievances that can escalate into instability and violent conflict. The increases in both acute food insecurity and violent conflict demand urgent and decisive action. The objectives of this three-part policy paper series are to emphasize the urgency of addressing the relationship between conflict and food insecurity and to point out existing opportunities to do so. This paper, the first in the series, aims, firstly, to inform policymakers of the intricate relationships between food security and violent conflict, secondly, to alert policymakers to the potential ability of food systems to contribute to peace, and then to highlight the action required to enhance this potential. The paper concludes with four recommendations intended to help guide more effective preventative and mitigating action to limit (and ultimately avoid) the long-term adverse consequences of violent conflict for food security and exploit food security’s potential to foster peace.
Topic:
Security, Development, Food, Conflict, Peace, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Global Focus

155. Fragile States Index 2021 – Annual Report

Author:
Natalie Fiertz, Nate Haken, Patricia Taft, Emily Sample, and Wendy Wilson
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
Climate Change, Authoritarianism, Employment, Fragile States, Economy, Political stability, Conflict, Crisis Management, Peace, Resilience, COVID-19, Health Crisis, Early Warning, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, Tajikistan, Germany, Armenia, Central America, Spain, Lebanon, Timor-Leste, North America, Ethiopia, Southeast Asia, El Salvador, Global Focus, and United States of America

156. A Path to Resiliency: Mitigating the Impacts of COVID-19 on Essential Medicines Supply Chains

Author:
Anthony McDonnell, Elizabeth Pisani, and Somya Singhvi
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
COVID-19 has put a spotlight on health product supply chains, highlighting the challenges in multiple steps in the global supply chain. This paper seeks to understand the impact of COVID-19 on the supply chain of a subset of essential medicines. It identifies the main categories of blockages in the global supply chain created by COVID-19, then uses data on trade flows, wholesalers, and pharma companies, and from surveys, to track the impact. There was significant short-term disruption to manufacturing caused by COVID-19. Surveys, pharmacy, and export data indicate that COVID-related disruptions impacted the supply of essential medicines, but this varied greatly by markets and product. The paper highlights that (1) data-driven approaches should be considered to make supply chains more robust, (2) solutions must account for the political and institutional landscape, (3) price surges benefit the wealthiest, and (4) local solutions are often needed to manage global shocks. More research is needed, particularly into how to obtain granular data to track supply shocks in real time? How do we increase surge capacity? Is it possible to improve procurement practices through pooled procurement, where applicable? And can pharmaceutical production be diversified, with products produced regionally to limit the risk of disruption?
Topic:
Pandemic, Resilience, COVID-19, and Medicine
Political Geography:
Global Focus

157. Why Integrate National Peace Structures? Building Community Platforms for Resilience, Early Warning and Dialogue

Author:
ACCORD
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
In the last two decades, West Africa has become an incubator for violent conflict whose origins are mostly believed to be rooted outside the region. The current climate of poverty, unemployment, under-development, poor governance, human rights abuses, repression, unprecedented delays and denial of access to justice, and ongoing conflicts have made West Africa a breeding ground for terrorism. The spread of terrorism across the region has intensified exponentially over the past 20 years more than any other time in the history of the region. Terrorism is a major security challenge for Africa as a whole, considering the rising number of attacks, the multiplicity of active terror networks, and the growing links between and among terror groups. Boko Haram, al-Shabaab, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) are some of the deadliest terrorist organisations that are still highly active in Africa. They constantly mutate into incognito networks, and their actions are also labelled as banditry or cattle rustling, among others, in Nigeria. Terrorism is violence without borders, and its dynamics are highly unpredictable, especially with the skill and ingenuity with which terrorist organisations conceal their real identities.
Topic:
Civil Society, Peace, Resilience, Dialogue, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

158. New energy technology will make the Baltic Sea Region more crisis-resilient

Author:
Trine Villumsen Berling and Izabela Surwillo
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The current energy situation in Europe is being caused by a double crisis and a geopolitical blockage. The long-term climate crisis and the urgent energy crisis have brought green(er) energy to the top of the agenda. However, they are not working in sync. With gas being the easy choice when cutting CO2 emissions rapidly, the handling of the climate crisis has to some extent produced the energy crisis. On top of that, the increased demand for gas has worsened Europe’s strategic and geopolitical situation vis-à-vis Russia. Because of extreme weather conditions in 2021 (a cold winter, low wind, a hot summer), combined with the increasing demand for liquified natural gas (LNG) in Asia, post-lockdown industrial gas demand recovery and a green agenda that requires the phasing out of coal and its replacement with the ‘bridge-fuel’, gas, Europe finds itself in a quandary over gas. Geopolitically, the region is in a difficult situation, which is further aggravated by the EU-Russia power play in the gas sector. Empty gas reservoirs in Europe have given the Russian energy giant Gazprom additional leverage to make increased gas supplies to Europe conditional upon the finalization of the Nordstream 2 project, which is technically finished, but has not been certified. In late November, the German regulator suspended Nord Stream 2, increasing the pressure on the gas market. In this context, the energy transition in the Baltic Sea region has the potential to increase resilience in future energy crises and dampen geopolitical dependence by replacing Russian gas with new forms of energy. Its success depends on numerous factors, including the further synchronization of energy networks, new energy infrastructure and technologies (including renewables), improved energy efficiency, and the creation of a common regional gas market. Fossil fuels are envisaged as playing a pivotal role in the regional and European energy supply for decades to come, but with new investments and diversification of suppliers, the geopolitics of gas can be ameliorated. Continued reliance on fossil fuels Gas In the Baltic Sea region, Soviet-era energy infrastructure has kept many countries in a state of dependence on Gazprom even after independence in the early 1990s. This has prompted the diversification of gas supply routes. With LNG terminals opening in Lithuania (in Klaipėda in 2014) and Poland (in Świnoujście in 2016), and with more projects on the way, such as new LNG projects in Poland, Latvia and Finland, or the Baltic Pipe project to send Norwegian gas to Poland through Denmark (to be partially completed by the end of 2022), the Baltic Sea region is gradually breaking away from Russia’s dominance of gas in Europe.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Geopolitics, Crisis Management, Resilience, and Energy
Political Geography:
Baltic States

159. Planetary Health: A More Resilient World Post-COVID-19?

Author:
Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The care of nature offers holistic solutions to a wide range of issues that include climate change and the pandemic. The emerging concept of planetary health has the potential to contribute and, if widely adopted, may lead to a more resilient world post-COVID-19.
Topic:
Public Health, Pandemic, Resilience, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

160. Resilience in Post-civil War, Authoritarian Burundi: What Has Worked and What Has Not?

Author:
Gervais Rufyikiri
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
In Burundi the rise of authoritarianism during the post-civil war period fuelled endless political tensions that resulted in intermittent violent but low-intensity conflicts. This Geneva Paper focuses on identifying and understanding the drivers of the positive outlook that characterises Burundians even though the country has often been on the brink of relapsing into a major civil war. The most striking observation is that Burundians have demonstrated a notable capacity for resilience. Resilience theory is briefly discussed, followed by sections on the dynamics of violent conflicts in Burundi, resilient post-war politics, and attempts to heal the country after the ending of the civil war. The role of non-state domestic actors, international actors and community-level actors are then discussed in this regard.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Conflict, Violence, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Africa and Burundi