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91. The Economics of Reduced-Risk Products: Global policy landscape and principles for policy treatment

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Heated Tobacco Products (HTPs) and vapour products (e.g., e-cigarettes) are new categories of Reduced-Risk Products (RRPs) in the tobacco market that have gained in popularity in recent years, with global sales of approximately US $20 billion each in 2020. In response, the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC) has generally advocated a precautionary stance. For HTPs that can mean imposing equivalent fiscal and non-fiscal rules that are applied to combustible tobacco products. For e-cigarettes, it can mean strict controls on usage, with a focus on protecting vulnerable groups. However, pursuing a harsh stance towards RRPs could potentially limit policymakers’ options for mitigating health risks, and puts at risk the positive economic footprint supported by the RRP industry, in terms of the GDP, jobs, wages, and large R&D investments it supports. Against this backdrop, we propose three key principles that regulating authorities should adhere to for optimal outcomes in their approach to RRPs: tailor restrictions on RRP usage to different groups; differentiate the treatment of RRPs from combustible tobacco products; and incentivise innovation in industry to achieve better health outcomes at the population level.
Topic:
Economics, Health, Regulation, Innovation, Tobacco, and Reduced-Risk Products
Political Geography:
Global Focus

92. The Economic Impact of China PNTR Repeal

Author:
David Schockenhoff and Michael Kleiman
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
As scepticism towards China is rising among policymakers, businesses grow more concerned about the potential economic fallout from an escalation in US-China tariff policy. Oxford Economics was commissioned by the US-China Business Council (USCBC) to help inform the policymaking process by examining two scenarios that could materialize if China’s Permanent Normalized Trade Relations (PNTR) status was revoked – including the increase of US tariffs on Chinese goods to column 2 rates as well as a Chinese retaliation imposing pre-WTO rates on US goods. Our analysis incorporates state-of-the art trade and economic models, including the Oxford Economics GEM, and finds that the US could lose up to $1.9trn in output over the five-year period following a China PNTR repeal. This is our third study for USCBC after examining the impact of the US-China relationship and associated scenarios in two previous reports (2017 and 2021).
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Bilateral Relations, Regulation, Tariffs, Trade, Supply Chains, Policymaking, Decoupling, and Goods and Services
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

93. Chipping Away: Assessing and addressing the labor market gap facing the US semiconductor industry

Author:
Dan Martin and Hamilton Galloway
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Thanks in large part to enactment of the landmark 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, a significant share of expected new chip manufacturing capacity and R&D is expected to be located in the US. We project the semiconductor industry’s US-based workforce will grow by nearly 115,000 jobs by 2030, from approximately 345,000 jobs today to approximately 460,000 jobs by the end of the decade. We estimate that roughly 67,000, or 58%, of these new jobs risk going unfilled at current degree completion rates. Of the unfilled jobs: 39% will be technicians, most of whom have two-year degrees or less; 35% will be computer scientists, or engineers with four-year degrees; and 26% will be engineers at the master’s or PhD level. For the US economy as a whole, we estimate that 3.85 million additional jobs in these three technical fields will be created by the end of 2030. Of those, 1.4 million jobs risk going unfilled unless the pipeline for such workers is expanded. To address the skills gap facing the broader economy and the semiconductor industry, we present three core recommendations to strengthen the US technical workforce: Strengthen support for regional partnerships and programs aimed at growing the pipeline for skilled technicians for semiconductor manufacturing and other advanced manufacturing sectors. Grow the domestic STEM pipeline for engineers and computer scientists vital to the semiconductor industry and other sectors that are critical to the future economy. Retain and attract more international advanced degree students within the US economy.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Regulation, Manufacturing, Labor Market, Workforce, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

94. Are new EU data market regulations coherent and efficient?

Author:
Bertin Martins
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Technical restrictions on access to and re-use of data may result in failures in data markets and data-driven services markets. This paper examines three new EU data regulations (the European Health Data Space, the Data Act and the Digital Markets Act) that vary substantially in mandatory access measures intended to overcome these market failures. It applies three economic criteria, economies of scope in re-use and in aggregation of data, and data supply-side failures, to assess the efficiency of these regulations in overcoming market failures and coherence across regulations. Variations might be justified by particular sectoral market conditions. The European Health Data Space proposal comes close to an ideal data access regime for primary re-use and secondary pooling of health data. The Data Act opens access to data from tangible products only. It strengthens the market power of data holders by giving them quasi-ownership rights over data. It introduces new obstacles to re-use that are likely to minimise its impact. The Digital Markets Act opens access to market data pools collected by very large gatekeeper platforms. Some access provisions are vaguely defined. Others facilitate access to data pools but may risk unwinding the benefits of data-driven network effects. Th ere is scope for significant improvement in these data regulations.
Topic:
Markets, European Union, Regulation, and Digital Markets Act (DMA)
Political Geography:
Europe

95. Compliance principles for the Digital Markets Act

Author:
Christophe Carugati
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Under the European Union’s Digital Markets Act (DMA), six ‘gatekeepers’ (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, ByteDance, Meta and Microsoft) have been designated in relation to 22 core platform services (CPS). The gatekeepers have until 6 March 2024 to propose to the European Commission how they will comply with their DMA obligations. The DMA gives flexibility to gatekeepers to achieve compliance by providing some guidance what can constitute compliance and non-compliance with the obligations. However, it does not provide compliance principles. These offer a standard of compliance-by-design, while offering flexibility to each gatekeeper to develop specific solutions tailored to each obligation and CPS. Compliance principles would also be easily observable elements helping to inform the Commission – the DMA’s enforcer – aboutcompliance. We propose fiveDMA compliance principles for gatekeepers to follow. These have been derived from the list of DMA obligations. The principles relate to access, fair conditions, information, choice and flexibility. Each principle would be accompanied by a second level of sub-principles based on the economics literature and case law. We recommend that gatekeepers implement the principles and that the Commission monitors whether gatekeepers follow the compliance principles. Gatekeepers, in their annual DMA compliance reports, should provide the Commission with methodologies, tests and other relevant documents as evidence of compliance in practice. Commission monitoring should include regular engagement with gatekeepers, third parties and consumers, before and after the implementation of the compliance solutions.
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, Compliance, and Digital Markets Act (DMA)
Political Geography:
Europe

96. A quantitative evaluation of the European Commission’s fiscal governance proposal

Author:
Zsolt Darvas, Lennard Welslau, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
In the new European Union fiscal framework proposed by the European Commission in April 2023, medium-term fiscal adjustment requirements would be determined by country-by-country debt sustainability analysis (DSA), the 3 percent deficit ceiling and simple rules requiring minimum deficit and debt adjustments (‘safeguards’). These elements are controversial, with some EU countries (and ourselves) preferring a DSA-based approach, while others prefer to stick to simple rules. This paper evaluates the proposal by replicating the DSA methodology and computing fiscal adjustment implications for all EU countries with debt above 60 percent or deficits above 3 percent of GDP. We find that the proposed framework would require ambitious fiscal adjustment: on average, more than 2 percent of GDP over the medium term, in addition to the adjustment that is already planned for 2023-24. However, for most high-debt countries, these requirements are below those implied by the current framework. We also find that for most countries with debt above 60 percent of GDP, these adjustment requirements are driven by the DSA rather than the safeguards, but with significant exceptions. The main exception is France, for which the ‘debt safeguard’ – which requires debt to fall within four years – imposes much higher fiscal adjustment than the DSA. If the adjustment period were to be extended from four to seven years (as is possible under the framework for countries that submit growth-enhancing reform and investment plans), the safeguards would also be binding for several other countries. In addition, a requirement to reduce the deficit by at least half a percent per year if it exceeds 3 percent of GDP could become binding ex post, in response to output shocks, even if countries implement the fiscal adjustment required ex ante. Finally, we find that while the Commission’s DSA methodology is reasonable, it would benefit from review. This should be done by an independent expert group in consultation with the Commission, member states and other stakeholders, and endorsed by the Council. We recommend the endorsement of the Commission’s proposal after ambiguous aspects are clarified, the debt safeguard and other safeguards are removed or modified, the excessive deficit procedure is reformed to avoid procyclical adjustment, and a process for reviewing the DSA methodology is put in place.
Topic:
Governance, Regulation, Fiscal Policy, and European Commission
Political Geography:
Europe

97. Beyond Compliance: A Performance Assessment of Statutory Boards and Commissions in Uganda’s Local Governments FY 2021/2022

Author:
Arthur Bainomugisha, Wilson Winstons Muhwezi, Walter Akena, Jonas Mbabazi, and Rebecca N. Mukwaya
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
This report presents findings from the first assessment of Statutory Boards and Commissions comprising the District Service Commissions (DSC), District Land Boards (DLB), and LG Public Accounts Committees (LGPAC) in 26 District Local Governments. This cutting-edge Assessment was the first of its kind and provided a ground-breaking opportunity to examine these important structures designed to provide regulation, oversight and additional citizen representation and voice, within the ambit of Uganda’s Decentralisation Policy. The report offers interesting and intriguing insights into the operations of the Statutory Boards and Commissions which point to an urgent need to revitalise and strengthen them as critical pillars of Local Governance in Uganda. Uganda’s Decentralisation Policy devolved powers to the Local Governments. These powers rest on three key pillars, namely the Local Council (including the Executive), the Technical Staff and the Statutory Bodies. As such, Uganda’s Decentralisation Policy is both a political and a technical process. At the political level it involves leadership, participation, inclusion, representation, decision-making, and power relations between Central and Local Governments, and between Higher and Lower Local Governments. On the technical level, it involves administration, planning, budgeting, financial management, human resources management and development, monitoring and evaluation, supervision and mentoring. Thus, the success of Decentralisation is highly contingent on the careful and effective synchronization of political and technical elements and functions. At the commencement of the decentralisation policy, the government, through several legal instruments, created an elaborate institutional framework for support and oversight at the local government level. These institutions include the District Service Commission, District Land Board, Local Government Public Accounts Committees, and the District Tender Boards (now contracts committee) which later morphed into the District Contracts Committees (Mushemeza, 2019). The assessment of these statutory boards and commissions was underpinned by a series of ACODE’s scorecard findings that consistently revealed that the functionality of committees and statutory boards and commissions have a bearing on the general performance of district local government councils and subsequently the quality-of-service delivery in local governments. Furthermore, a number of studies indicated structural and operational gaps in the functionality of various accountability organs at the Local Government level1 . Given the importance of this tripartite relationship highlighted above, the functionality and strength of the Statutory Boards and Commissions is an important yardstick and litmus test for the overall functionality of a given Local Government. It is against this background that the assessment sought to examine the performance of the statutory boards and commissions. Specifically, the assessment sought to; (i) Explore the extent to which statutory boards and commissions have complied with their roles and responsibilities; (ii) Analyse how statutory boards and commissions are accountable to council and citizens; and (iii) Explore key issues impeding and or facilitating Statutory Boards and Commissions in delivering on their statutory roles and responsibilities and make appropriate recommendations. The assessment largely drew from the methodology of the Local Government Scorecard Assessment (Tumushabe, Mushemeza, Tamale, Lukwago, & Ssemakula, 2010). The assessment is further grounded in rigorous methodological approaches that adhere to scientific rigour. This assessment focused on FY 2021/2022 and was carried out in the 26 districts of Agago, Amuria, Amuru, Arua, Buliisa, Hoima, Gulu, Jinja, Kanungu, Kabarole, Kamuli, Lira, Luwero, Mbale, Mbarara, Moroto, Mpigi, Mukono, Nakapiripirit, Nebbi, Ntungamo, Rukungiri, Sheema, Soroti, Tororo and Wakiso. The overall finding of the Assessment was that the Statutory Boards and Commissions exist at the Local Government level and are attempting to discharge their duties and functions, in spite of the stiff challenges that their face. Notwithstanding their regulatory import and function, their role as an added citizen representation and voice, the Statutory Bodies were noted to have declining visibility and significance – across all the 26 districts assessed. Different Boards and Commissions in the different districts exhibit varying levels of resilience and functionality. Overall, there seemed to be a general “neglect” of the Statutory Bodies, across the Board.
Topic:
Regulation, Decentralization, Compliance, Assessment, and Local Government
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

98. Governing in Hard Times Conference: Standards in Public Life

Author:
Robert Saunders, Robin Brockwell, Chris Bryant, and Hannah White
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
This panel, held on the day that the Privileges Committee published its Final Report on Boris Johnson and 'Partygate', asked what could be done to restore higher standards of propriety and accountability in public life. It asked how a new administration could ensure that the Seven 'Nolan' Principles are better enforced and the merits of greater statutory regulation. Chair: Dr Robert Saunders (Reader in Modern British History at Queen Mary, University of London) Panel: Lord Butler of Brockwell (Cabinet Secretary and Head of the Home Civil Service, 1988-1998) Sir Chris Bryant MP (MP for Rhondda and Chair of the Committee on Standards and Privileges) Dr Hannah White OBE (Director of the Institute for Government)
Topic:
Governance, Regulation, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

99. EU Digital Services Act and Its Implications to the Potential Regulatory Regime of Disinformation in Asia

Author:
Sofia Calabrese
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
In 2022, after two years of heated negotiations, European Union (EU) institutions reached an agreement on the final text of the Digital Services Act, the new EU law to tackle illegal content online. “The Digital Services Act will set new global standards. [...] We have finally made sure that what is illegal offline is also illegal online,” said Christel Schaldemose, the lead Member of the European Parliament on the file, after the agreement was reached (European Parliament 2022). In a nutshell, this reflects the ambitions of EU policymakers for the file to become both a new golden standard for platform regulation in the EU and beyond; and to fulfil its primary goal to tackle illegal content online. This article will focus on these two aspects: on one hand we will explain how, despite its scope being limited to illegal content, the Digital Services Act can also be effective in addressing online disinformation; and on the other hand we will explore the potential impact of the Digital Services Act beyond the EU, in particular on potential regulatory regimes on disinformation in Asia.
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, Disinformation, Online Platforms, and Digital Services
Political Geography:
Europe

100. Between Tradition and the Law: Artisanal Firearm Production in West Africa

Author:
Julien Joly and Aline Shaban
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Craft firearms are deeply embedded in West Africa’s culture and history, often being used for hunting, livestock protection, and in traditional ceremonies. However, these firearms are increasingly being used in crimes and civil disturbance. Between Tradition and The Law: Artisanal Firearm Production in West Africa—a new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Craft Weapons in Africa: State of Play and Regulatory Approaches project—provides an overview of regional trends about the production of craft firearms, and their regulatory frameworks. It also calls for further additional research on the methods of production as well as on the trafficking dynamics of these types of weapons.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Culture, Regulation, Weapons, and Trafficking
Political Geography:
West Africa