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41. What majority coalition is possible in Poland following the parliamentary elections on 15 October?

Author:
Corinne Deloy
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
On 8 August, the President of the Republic, Andrzej Duda (PiS), announced that the next parliamentary elections in Poland would be held on 15 October next. The Polish people will be called upon to renew the 460 MPs of the Sejm, the lower house of parliament, and the 100 members of the Senate, the upper house. Poland has been governed since 2015 by the Law and Justice party (PiS). Mateusz Morawiecki has been Prime Minister since 2017. Jaroslaw Kaczynski, a member of the Sejm who is considered to be the country's true leader, recently returned to the government because of divisions and tensions in his camp, according to political scientist Kazimierz Kik. In 2015, the PiS formed the "United Right" coalition with Poland's outgoing justice minister, Zbigniew Ziobro, and a number of independent figures, which is in the running for the 2023 elections. It hopes to win a third term at the head of the country, which would be a first in the history of democratic Poland. PiS can count on a solid electoral base, particularly in the medium-sized towns and villages in the south-east and centre of the country. Civic Platform (PO), the main opposition party led by former Prime Minister (2007-2014) and former President of the European Council (2014-2019) Donald Tusk, appeals to voters in large cities and to people who are tired of the PiS's intransigence, particularly on societal issues, and worried about Poland's isolation on the international stage. According to the opinion poll carried out by the IBRIS/Onet institute on 13 September, the United Right coalition is expected to come out ahead in the elections with 33.3% of the vote, outstripping the Citizens' Coalition, organised around Civic Platform and 3 other parties - Modern, The Greens (Z), Polish Initiative (iPL) - which is expected to win 26.4% of the vote. The Left, which comprises several parties, is expected to come third with 11.1%. The Third Way coalition (Trzecia Droga), which includes two centrist parties (Poland 2050 and the Polish Coalition), is forecast to win 10.2%, just ahead of the Freedom and Independence Confederation, an ultra-nationalist and liberal party, with 11.1%. On the face of it, neither the United Right coalition nor the Citizens' Coalition would be able to secure an absolute majority in the Sejm. There is a very real risk that the parliamentary ballot will result in a "hung parliament", as was the case after the elections on 25 October 2015, which led to new parliamentary vote being held in 2017. Inflation and the cost of living are the most important issues for the majority of Poles (35%), followed by national security (22%).
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

42. Turning No Tides: Union Effects on Partisan Preferences and the Working-Class Metamorphosis

Author:
Sinisa Hadziabdic
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Relying on panel data for Germany, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States, the paper examines the impact of union membership on partisan preferences. By leveraging panel data to control for time-invariant selection effects, we show that unions exert a small consistent left‑wing influence on the average wage earner who becomes affiliated, but they are no longer able to modify the preferences of working-class members. A longitudinal approach reveals that changes in partisan preferences can be linked to members’ preexisting predispositions and to the prevalent political views within unions. Unions mainly attract individuals who already share their political inclinations before joining. These preexisting left-wing convictions allow an additional left-wing shift to take place through a value congruence mechanism provoked by interactions with long-term union members who are even more left-wing oriented than the newcomers. Symmetrically, working-class joiners exhibit less pronounced left-wing inclinations before becoming affiliated, a gap that widens further after they join as a consequence of their unmet expectations.
Topic:
Class, Political Parties, Trade Unions, Panel Data, and Comparative Politics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Germany, and Switzerland

43. The Conservative Party After Brexit with Professor Tim Bale

Author:
Tim Bale and Carolyn Quinn
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
The Conservative Party can lay convincing claim to being the world's most successful political party, not least because it is also one of the most adaptable, often appearing to do and say pretty much whatever it takes to win. But has it now taken things too far? Since the UK voted to leave the EU back in 2016, the Tories have transformed themselves from a mainstream, centre-right party to one built upon a combination of radical right-wing populism, free-market fundamentalism, and fiscal constraint. Can the party survive in its current unstable form? Or will it be blown apart by its contradictions, its factions, and the competition between future leadership hopefuls? At this launch of his new book on 18 April 2023, 'The Conservative Party After Brexit', the Mile End Institute's very own Professor Tim Bale was in conversation with Carolyn Quinn (the former host of BBC Radio 4's Westminster Hour). They discussed these questions, charted the fall-out from the bombshell Brexit referendum and the chaotic premierships of Theresa May, Boris Johnson, and Liz Truss.
Topic:
European Union, Brexit, Political Parties, Boris Johnson, Conservative Party, Theresa May, Rishi Sunak, and Nigel Farage
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

44. Political Party Preferences on Local Election in Indonesia: How Does Rational Choice Institutionalism Work in Candidate Selection?

Author:
Syafhendry, Andi Luhr Prianto, and Nina Yuslaini
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The rational choice institutionalism approach provides insight into political parties’ personal and institutional preferences in determining their strategic and technical-operational decisions. Institutional and personal preferences in political parties have shaped rational choices in selecting regional head candidates. Political party preferences provide rational choices based on the values they believe have shaped political responses to individuals and institutions. This study will examine selecting mayor and deputy mayor candidates in regional head elections. This study maps the preferences of political parties in determining their rational choices. The qualitative research method involves field interviews, online media analysis, and the examination of social media data. The data processing includes content analysis conducted using NVivo 12 Plus software. The study results indicate that political parties as political institutions are very centralized and pragmatic in determining the results of selecting regional head candidates. There are variations in the types of preferences of political parties in the candidates, namely systemic, practical, and normative preferences. Internal regulations support systemic preferences, practical preferences are determined by party procedures, directors, and selection criteria, and normative preferences are based on political parties’ ideology, values, and goals. Normative preferences will only become mainstream in the candidacy of political parties if party ideology strengthens and the candidate selection mechanism is transformed into a democracy-based selection.
Topic:
Elections, Institutions, Political Parties, and Pragmatism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

45. Political Party Institutionalization from a Comparative Perspective: The Case of Thailand

Author:
Wichuda Satidporn and Stithorn Thananithichot
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
This article examines the importance of institutionalizing political parties in developing democracy. This article develops the conceptual framework of the institutionalization of political parties, which combines institutionalization factors in both internal and external dimensions and applies this conceptual framework to extract lessons on the institutionalization of political parties in various democratic countries, including Thailand. The results of applying the aforementioned conceptual framework, in particular to the case of Thailand, indicate that the failure to apply the notion of institutionalization to political parties in this country stems from the traditionally narrow-minded approach to considering the institutionalization of political parties rather than problems with the idea itself. Thus, this article suggests that building an institution for a political party is something that can be designed by giving importance to the development of political parties in a structured manner, along with promoting political parties to have the ability to play a solid political role under the democratic regime.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Political Parties, Institutionalization, and Democratic Transitions
Political Geography:
Thailand and Southeast Asia

46. Thailand on a Difficult Path to Democratic Change

Author:
Damian Wnukowski
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
On 5 September, the new government of Thailand was sworn in, headed by Srettha Thavisin of the Thai Party (Pheu Thai, PT). This ended the political deadlock that had lasted since the parliamentary elections of 14 May. However, not joining the government coalition of the Move Forward (MF) party, which obtained the best electoral result, and including parties supporting the army may cause social tensions. Partial democratic changes in Thailand may be conducive to, among others, cooperation with the European Union.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Elections, European Union, Democracy, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Thailand and Southeast Asia

47. Why the American Public is Less Polarized on Foreign Policy

Author:
Matthew Rochat
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:
It is no secret that American social and political life has become a house divided. Over the past several decades, Americans have gravitated increasingly toward politically like-minded clusters. Political ideology now plays a large role in determining the neighborhoods where we live, the friends and family with whom we spend our time, and the news media that we consume. This divisive trend is not limited to the American public, but also characterizes relations between political elites and has contributed to gridlock in congress. The United States has become divided between two camps of increasingly extreme positions, a phenomenon known as polarization. While public opinion has become increasingly polarized on domestic policy, foreign policy has not been susceptible to the same degree. Though foreign policy divisions are growing among political elites, they have not yet trickled down to the general population. The underlying logic is that party elites do not transmit sufficiently clear cues to the public, who in turn, do not effectively interpret these cues. In simpler terms, elites have failed to effectively distinguish Republican foreign policy from Democrat foreign policy. What explains this communication failure?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Political Parties, Polarization, and Partisanship
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

48. Parti Socialiste: the end of the cycle – The collapse of the French Socialists and the future prospects of the Left in France

Author:
Nikolas I. Tzimos
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The French Socialist Party (Parti Socialiste – PS), once the main government party of the Left, has been in rapid decline since 2014; since 2017, it has been struggling for its life. Its electorate shrank due to President François Hollande’s poor management and growing political unreliability during his term in office. Signs of internal crisis were evident from the early 21st century. The Socialist Party has been losing traditional social bastions and organizational resources since the 2014 municipal elections. The 2022 presidential elections already appear lost for the Socialist Party. Anne Hidalgo, the mayor of Paris and the Socialist candidate for the presidency, is from the PS’s vast pool of local authority cadres. She was reelected as mayor in harsh times, back in 2020. A predominantly cosmopolitan candidate, Hidalgo has failed to rally the PS’s forces. She is shedding votes towards the Center and the radical Left. The PS is currently experiencing the inversion of the phenomenon of 21 April 2002. To avoid two undesirable candidates in the second round, potential PS voters are “forced” to vote tactically (vote utile) for candidates that are better equipped to get beyond the first round. Can the PS survive if it puts in a good performance in the upcoming parliamentary elections? The French two-round electoral system requires cooperation to secure seats. A new Épinay is necessary, but is it possible?
Topic:
Domestic Politics, History, Political Parties, and Socialism
Political Geography:
Europe and France

49. British politics after Brexit

Author:
Anand Menon, Paula Surridge, and Alan Wager
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Drawing on the expertise of over 40 of the UK’s top experts on public opinion, British Politics after Brexit provides a comprehensive overview of public opinion in the UK. The landscape of British politics is as complicated as it has ever been. But if you are looking to navigate it then this report – exploring the public’s views across party politics, public policy and the UK’s constitutional future – is a good place as any to start.
Topic:
Politics, Public Opinion, Brexit, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

50. Right-Wing Coalition Wins Parliamentary Elections in Italy

Author:
Łukasz Maślanka
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The elections to Italy’s Chamber of Deputies and Senate on 25 September were won by the Centre-Right coalition led by the Brothers of Italy (FdI) party headed by Giorgia Meloni. The winning party’s won over voters by its decision to remain in opposition to the government of Mario Draghi, which was supported by all other parties. The right-wing’s victory was also facilitated by the inability of the Democratic Party (PD) and the 5 Star Movement (M5S) to form a coalition, which split the votes of left-wing voters. The biggest challenge for the FdI-led coalition will be to simultaneously maintain the support of the voters, good relations with the EU, and the confidence of the financial markets.
Topic:
European Union, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, Right-Wing Politics, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy