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621. Compounded Crisis in Belarus: Drivers, Dynamics, and Possible Outcomes?

Author:
Pal Dunay and Graeme P. Herd
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
Until 2014, Belarus had embraced its Soviet legacy identity. After the Russian annexation of Crimea and its subsequent support for the separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk, elite discourse in Minsk favored a geopolitical shift away from Moscow and emphasized Belarus’ independent statehood and strategic autonomy. Elites tolerated and even co-opted a more nationalist agenda (including re-interpretations of history and the increased visiblity of nationalist symbols) and a clearer delineation emerged between pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian public groups in Belarus, inspired also in part by the Ukrainian reform process, though this was not clearly reflected in institutional politics. Belarusian national identity lacks the deeper anti-Russian sentiment inhrerent in that of Ukraine. Russia responded by enhancing its profile in Belarus through increased Russkiy Mir and Rossotrunichestvo activities to positively shape public opinion, even as it distanced itself from Lukashenka. In the last few years, Russia more publicly challenged Lukashenka to make good on his pledges by signing and implementing the thirty-one roadmaps for Union State integration. The Wagner debacle of July 29 further strained relations, not least as President Alyksandr Lukashenka instrumentalized the arrests to suggest that Russia was the greatest threat to Belarusian sovereignty and only he could defend its statehood. The current political crisis can also be attributed to a number of accumulating internal proximate factors, which eroded support for an incumbent president seeking a sixth five-year term after twenty-six years in power: the mismanagement of COVID-19 responses; a lost economic decade in which recovery shackled the IT sector and entrepreneurship and initiated the 2017 “parasite tax” protests; the rise of “autocrat fatigue”; a generational change with those under forty years old not identifying with Lukashenka’s Soviet era models and mentality; and a generalized resistance to the idea that the election could be rigged as usual. The existing social contract was at breaking point.
Topic:
Nationalism, Conflict, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Belarus

622. COVID-19 and Irregular Migration in the Mediterranean

Author:
Benjamin P. Nickels and Margo Shields
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
Every year, tens of thousands of men, women, and children attempt to move—from East to West and from South to North—across the Mediterranean. This year, irregular migration across the Mediterranean is taking place during an unprecedented global coronavirus pandemic. How is COVID-19 affecting this year’s Mediterranean irregular migration and what should be done to manage this migration during the pandemic? On June 17, 2020, the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies brought together a diverse set of twelve practitioners and experts from Europe, Africa, the United States, and the Middle East to address this question. The following takeaways are informed by the discussion.
Topic:
Migration, Refugees, Humanitarian Crisis, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Mediterranean

623. Tashkent COVID-19 Video Conference Calls for International Cooperation

Author:
Gregory Gleason, Pál Dunay, and Robert Baumann
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
The COVID-19 infection spread rapidly through the Central Asian states in early 2020. Political leaders in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan were quick to adopt containment and mitigation policies to counter the spread of the disease, announcing national emergencies, establishing quarantines, ordering commercial and public institutions to temporary close, and restricting road, rail, air, and maritime transport routes. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, in particular, swiftly took steps to implement restrictions, impose curfews, and initiate sheltering-in-place measures. The neighboring Central Asian states of Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, meanwhile, instituted a number of counter-infection measures but did not acknowledge instances of COVID-19 infection.1 The Tashkent State University of Oriental Studies, a leading foreign area studies center in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, conducted an international video-teleconference on the topic of the coronavirus pandemic on April 22, 2020. George C. Marshall Center professors Dr. Pál Dunay and Dr. Gregory Gleason were invited as presenters at the international video conference. Also invited as a presenter was Dr. Robert Baumann, the director of graduate degree programs for the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College at Ft. Leavenworth. The Uzbek Academy of the Armed Forces was included in the video conference. Marshall Center alumni also participated and actively contributed to the discussions. The key questions facing the crisis caused by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic were introduced by Gulchekhra Rikhsieva, Uzbekistan Senator and Rector of Tashkent State University of Oriental Studies. Professor Rikhsieva opened the video conference, describing the seriousness of the dangers presented by the spread of COVID-19 in Uzbekistan and other countries. She called upon the fifty-three video attendees of the conference to use the opportunity to meet the challenges of the crisis objectively and realistically. She called upon the attendees to identify international cooperation measures that could augment Uzbekistan’s state policies in reducing the risks inherent in this and other potential subsequent pandemics. The two-and-a-half-hour conference included eighteen brief video presentations, surveying and comparing the current state of affairs in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and other countries. Professor Rikhsieva concluded the discussion with remarks regarding the challenges and opportunities inherent in addressing public policy issues of international cooperation in the context of the video format.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Asia

624. With the World in Turmoil, Transnational Organized Crime Sees Opportunity in Counterfeit Pharmaceuticals and Medical Supplies during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
Stephen Noguera and Kalliroi Ziavrou
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic poses a host of global health, economic, and security challenges, to include the continued challenge of combating transnational organized crime. While some believe this pandemic will disrupt and have a negative impact on the global operations of transnational organized criminal groups, the morbid reality is that these groups view the crisis as a lucrative opportunity. For the foreseeable future, we can expect organized criminal groups to quickly adapt in order to exploit the pandemic via various illicit schemes. In Italy, mafia groups are already demonstrating that they are intent on benefiting from the crime-related opportunities that the COVID-19 pandemic will present.1 There are numerous opportunities and illicit ventures transnational organized crime will seek to exploit as this pandemic runs its course. Perhaps most concerning are the activities associated with the manufacture and trafficking of counterfeit pharmaceuticals and medical supplies, including personal protection equipment (PPE).2 Since the outbreak of the crisis, the sale of these products has increased.3 Interpol is warning that one of the five global threats from the coronavirus is the fraudulent and counterfeit trade in personal protective equipment and anti-viral pharmaceuticals.4 Moreover, during this crisis counterfeiters will most probably use shortages in the supply of some products to provide counterfeit alternatives.5 The European Medicines Agency (EMA) is urging the general public not to buy medicines from unauthorized websites and other vendors aiming to exploit fears and concerns during the ongoing pandemic of COVID-19. Such products are likely to be falsified medicines.6 According to the World Health Organization (WHO), “falsified” medicines are medical products that deliberately/fraudulently misrepresent their identity, composition, or source.7 For counterfeit products, the WHO is also using the terminology “substandard” (also called “out of specification”), for authorized medical products that fail to meet either their quality standards or specifications, or both, and “unregistered/unlicensed” for medical products that have not undergone evaluation and/or approval by the National or Regional Regulatory Authority (NRRA) for the market in which they are marketed/distributed or used, subject to permitted conditions under national or regional regulation and legislation.8
Topic:
International Cooperation, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Medicine
Political Geography:
Europe

625. Professor Sophie Harman and Vaccine Hesitancy

Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
In this clip from radio station LBC, Professor Sophie Harman discusses the latest MEI poll showing that Londoners are divided when it comes to having a Covid-19 vaccine.
Topic:
Public Health, Vaccine, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

626. Global Health Security and Pandemics: COVID-19 and Vaccines

Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
In this episode, Professor Sophie Harman responds to the news that a vaccine, developed by Pfizer and BioNTech, has been put forward for emergency approval. She discusses the issues of vaccine nationalism, vaccine hesitancy, and what might happen politically when the vaccine arrives.
Topic:
Security, Public Health, Vaccine, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

627. Global Health Security and Pandemics: Joe Biden and COVID-19

Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
In this episode, Professor Sophie Harman discusses President-elect Joe Biden’s proposed plans to deal with the Coronavirus pandemic on both a domestic and international scale. She examines what Biden’s plans entail and what challenges may lie ahead in his pandemic response.
Topic:
Security, Leadership, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

628. New Directions in Black British History

Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
This webinar brought together three emerging researchers on Black British History. The panel discussed their current research and touched on their experiences of studying Black British History in the context of Black Lives Matter and COVID-19.
Topic:
Race, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Black Lives Matter (BLM)
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

629. Global Health Security and Pandemics: The Politics of Loneliness in Pandemic Britain

Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
In this episode, Professor Barbara Taylor, Professor of Humanities in the Schools of History and English & Drama discusses the loneliness crisis that has engulfed Britain during the pandemic and highlights how individuals have turned to each other in acts of kindness to fulfil social obligations that are not necessarily being met by Government.
Topic:
Security, Mental Health, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

630. Global Heath Security and Pandemics: The Equality and Diversity Implications of COVID-19

Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
In this video, colleagues from the Centre for Research in Equality and Diversity (CRED) discuss the equality and diversity implications of the coronavirus pandemic. The conversation touches on valuing essential workers, gender, leadership, and remote working, whilst flagging opportunities and threats for equality and diversity that will be critical in ensuring the inclusivity of our workplaces and societies in the aftermath of COVID-19.
Topic:
Mental Health, Diversity, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus