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591. 199 Days Into Covid-19 Pandemic

Author:
Ngwa Wilfred, Denis Foretia, Mbuwir Charlotte, Dr. Asahngwa Constantine, Kibu Odette, Ronald Gobina, and Nkengafac Fobellah
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was first reported in Wuhan (Hubei province) China in December 2019. The virus has since then spread to all the 7 continents of the world, infecting over 14 million persons and killing over 600,000 [1] (as of July 19th, 2020.) By 30 January 2020, WHO Director General declared that the outbreak constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) [2]. The highest concentration of infected persons has shifted several times since mid-February 2020 from China to Iran, and then to Italy and Spain and is presently in the United States of America [3]. According to the Lancets, it is inevitable that Africa and Latin America will be experiencing the next wave of infections [4]. Since the introduction of the first case on February 14th, 2020, Africa as of July 19th, 2020, counted 683,905 infected persons and 14,684 deaths, thus contributing to 5% of the global caseload and to a little above 2% of the global death roll [5]. Although yet to be proven, several conspiracy theories have been proposed to explain these fewer cases observed in Africa [6]. Cameroon as of the 19th of July had recorded 16,157 cases with 373 deaths with 13,728 recovered cases [7]. This translates into a case fatality rate of 3.6% and a COVID 19 patient recovery rate of 85%. This ranks Cameroon as the 65th most affected country worldwide, the 7th in Africa [10] and the first [5] in Central Africa. The situation in Cameroon has pushed decision makers in Cameroon into taking a number of measures aimed at limiting the spread of the disease [8] in the country while at the time mitigating its impact on the economy [9]. Commendable efforts have been made by the government so far so such as the decentralisation of testing to 9 out of the 10 regions of the country (Rapport de Situation COVID 19 au Cameroon, Sitrep No 38). This report looks into COVID 19 situation in Cameroon with regards to the distribution of COVID 19 cases, the situation of health workers, some key mortality and morbidity indicators as well as the weekly evolution cases; making use of data from the beginning of the pandemic up to the 3rd of July 2020.
Topic:
Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Global Health
Political Geography:
Cameroon

592. Armed Conflict and COVID 19: the Ramifications on the Educational Sector in the NW/SW Regions of Cameroon

Author:
Tazoacha Francis
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
In late 2016, the social and political forces in the now restive South West and North West (NW/SW) regions of Cameroon erupted as a crisis and quickly mutated into a human disaster with a rising human and property destruction that has been going on unabated. The impact of this lingers given that disasters, be they natural or anthropogenic have always had immense ramifications on human lives in the area they occur and even beyond. The NW/SW regions have unfortunately become the theatre of such a ravaging disaster since four years ago triggered by accumulated layers of grievances meted on the consciousness of the Anglophone population in these regions of the country in tandem with marginalization particularly in the educational and legal systems by the Francophone-dominated government which led to widespread protests in September and October 2017. The conflict escalated from a peaceful demonstration that was met with a heavy crackdown from the government security forces. This has resulted in the majority of schools in these two regions to be shot down because of security reasons. This situation has further been worsened with the emergence of the coronavirus (COVID 19) pandemic that was first identified in Cameroon in February 2020 [1]. The COVID 19 situation in Cameroon has been evolving rapidly, with dozens of new cases reported each day. Adding to the current challenges of the armed conflict, the COVID 19 put the educational sector in Cameroon to a halt in March 2020 with far-reaching ramifications on the lives of the children of school-going ages, especially in the war-torn area.
Topic:
Security, Education, War, Children, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Cameroon

593. Serbia in the Jaws of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
Srdan Hercigonja
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
The public opinion poll conducted by the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP) in October 2020 shows that the society is divided, both when it comes to measures taken in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic and regarding the reaction of the competent institutions to the health crisis. Although no less than a third of the Serbian citizens do not believe in or have serious doubts about the existence of the COVID-19 pandemic, the vast majority of them are of the opinion that the health crisis will have serious economic consequences, while a third are convinced that it has affected the level of democracy in Serbia. Most people see the pandemic as a threat to human and national security, but they are divided over how this crisis has affected their everyday lives. Polarisation was identified in relation to the level of trust in state institutions. Citizens trust the health care system the most, which is not surprising since the health care system commonly occupies a very high position in general surveys conducted to measure trust in all institutions. The reason for the high level of trust in the health system is the fact that it is the entire health system – not just the specialised COVID departments – that is bearing the brunt of the pandemic. As for other institutions, the percentage of trust in the President of the Republic and the Crisis Task Force for the Protection of the Population from the Infectious Disease COVID-19 stands at almost fifty-fifty, which again reflects the broader picture of citizens’ (dis)trust in these permanent and temporary institutions. One of the reasons for the division in the perception of disease as a threat to the personal safety of citizens is poor informing and reporting on the course and consequences of the pandemic (frequent contradictory messages provided by the Crisis Task Force and the authorities), which has been identified in the survey as one of the biggest problems of pandemic management. An enormous number of citizens perceive China as the largest financial and humanitarian donor during the period of the pandemic, which also influences – in the general survey – positive opinions about foreign countries, where China ranks first. Despite the fact that it was in fact the European Union that helped Serbia the most in the fight against the Coronavirus, in both financial and humanitarian terms, in the eyes of the citizens China still convincingly holds the first place.
Topic:
Security, Public Opinion, Health Care Policy, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

594. Flattening the Pandemic and Recession Curves

Author:
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:
In the short run, the capacity of any country’s health system is finite (capacity of Intensive Care Units, number of hospital beds, number of skilled health professionals, ventilators….). This puts an upper bound on the number of patients that can be properly treated, at any given point in time and is represented by the flat line in the Figure. Unchecked, and given what we know of the transmission rate of the coronavirus, the pandemic would quickly overwhelm any health system, leaving many infected patients with deteriorating pulmonary conditions without any treatment. The fatality rate would surge. The threat is almost beyond comprehension. With a 2% case fatality rate baseline for overwhelmed health systems, and 50% of the world population infected, 1% of the world population -76 million people- would die. This scenario corresponds to the red curve in Figure 1. The part of the curve above the capacity of the health care system faces a sharply higher mortality risk (shaded red area).
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Health Care Policy, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Global Health
Political Geography:
United States

595. Coronavirus and Managing Your Organization’s Response

Author:
Anton Korinek
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Organizations around the world are working through how to respond to the novel coronavirus, posing one of the greatest challenges to leaders in a long time. Do they restrict travel? Doing so would have substantial financial implication, make months of preparation worthless and lower the morale of many stakeholders who enjoy travel. However, travel is what brought the coronavirus to the country in the first place — and what continues to spread it to new communities within the country. What about instituting remote work procedures? In-person meetings and events may be a critical part of an organization’s activities and an important part of the value it offers. Perhaps there are no known cases of the virus in a given community. However, once it does gain a foothold, social distancing is the only way to slow the spread. Carriers of the virus may unwittingly spread it for days before symptoms manifest themselves. Above all, one of the greatest challenges is to balance an organization’s economic concerns with the question of what is ethically the best course of action.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
United States and Global Focus

596. Born Out of Necessity: A Debt Standstill for COVID-19

Author:
Patrick Bolton, Lee Buchheit, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Mitu Gulati, Chang-Tai Hsieh, Ugo Panizza, and Beatrice Weder di Mauro
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:
Rich and poor countries alike are facing an unprecedented economic crisis as they attempt to contain the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. A downturn of this magnitude can cause tremendous long-term damage, with critical economic linkages between employees, businesses, and banks at risk of disappearing forever. Scores of firms will close permanently unless urgent action is taken. The threat is even more significant for emerging economies, where the economic costs of social distancing are likely to be higher, and where vulnerable small and medium sized enterprises with low cash reserves account for a much larger share of the economy than in rich countries, which can rely on extensive social and economic safety nets. Poor countries, moreover, have far more precarious health-care systems. The funds required to support vulnerable workers and businesses, and to care for COVID-19 patients, could be as high as 10% of their GDP. As a comparison, in the US the rescue measures passed in the last month alone account for at least 10% of GDP, and are likely to increase even more. A number of European countries have commited loans, equity injections and guarantees up to 35% of GDP. The COVID-19 crisis has led to a sudden collapse in capital flows to emerging and developing countries. According to estimates by the Institute of International Finance, non-resident portfolio outflows from emerging market countries amounted to nearly $100 billion over a period of 45 days starting in late February 2020. For comparison, in the three months that followed the explosion of the 2008 global financial crisis, outflows were less than $20 billion.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Political Economy, GDP, Business, Macroeconomics, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Credit
Political Geography:
Global Focus

597. Supporting Students to be Independent Learners: State and District Actions for the Pandemic Era

Author:
Education and Society Program
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
In May 2020, the Aspen Institute Education & Society Program shared ten recommended state actions for Fostering Connectedness in the Pandemic Era that were developed with a diverse group of education leaders. The pandemic and resulting closure of school buildings have revealed the deep inequities that already existed in many schools, and connectedness is one of those gaps. Data from school climate surveys demonstrates that students of color, English-learners, and students from low-income families do not feel safe at school, in part because they do not have the kind of caring, trusted relationships that create belonging – and in part because they do not feel challenged with meaningful, rigorous work. With this in mind, and as a complement to the initial recommendations to advance social, emotional, and academic development, we turned to another diverse set of leaders for actionable insights focused on culturally and linguistically responsive education.
Topic:
Development, Education, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

598. How Governors and Mayors Can Support Schools So Schools Can Support Students

Author:
Education and Society Program
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Schools are getting plenty of advice regarding reopening. What schools aren’t getting is enough material support to meet the needs of students and families. There is a growing recognition that reopening schools is vital for students’ well-being and academic learning, as well as parents’ well-being and their ability to resume anything approaching normal work routines. Whatever the mode of instruction next year — in-person, online, a hybrid approach — school systems urgently need more support to access the resources their students and families need so educators can do their essential work. As the needs of children and families continue to grow and compound — through the pandemic, the economic upheaval, and the racism and racial reckoning gripping the country — addressing health and well-being are essential foundations for learning.
Topic:
Development, Education, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

599. Equity and Affordability in Rural Communities and Tribal Nations

Author:
Energy and Environment Program
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The annual Aspen-Nicholas Water Forum, a collaborative initiative between the Aspen Institute Energy and Environment Program and the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University, serves as a platform for addressing domestic water challenges in the 21st century. In light of the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020 Forum took place across a series of virtual sessions exploring what constitutes good water governance through the lenses of water affordability and equity. While this topic was chosen prior to the outbreak of COVID-19, the pandemic has further revealed and exacerbated health and financial disparities across racial, gender, and geographic lines.
Topic:
Inequality, Rural, Public Health, Pandemic, Community, COVID-19, Tribes, and Equity
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

600. Stress Test: People, Technology, and the Safety Net In Response To Covid-19

Author:
Justin King and Financial Security Program
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
COVID-19 jolted the American economy — and it caused at least 30 million Americans to lose their jobs or have their working hours curtailed by April. The speed and volume of those suddenly un- and under-employed has been unprecedented, and it has resulted in a remarkable amount of stress on the nation’s social safety net. SNAP and other safety net supports administered by state governments struggle to meet the needs of millions of people. Some state online applications systems are so poorly designed that applicants remain stuck trying to access support weeks and months after beginning the application process. What can state human service administrators and policymakers do to build accessible intake and application systems? How should we re-design the safety net? Read the brief to better understand how to create a safety net that is people-centered, tech-enabled, and aligned with private benefit systems.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Welfare, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Safety Net
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America