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31. Acts of normality: The potential for Turkey-Armenia rapprochement

Author:
Asli Aydıntaşbaş
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The 2020 war between Azerbaijan and Armenia created an unexpected opportunity for Turkey and Armenia to normalise their relationship. For nearly a century, Turkey and Armenia have had almost no relationship and a closed border due to the legacy of the Armenian genocide, the cold war, and the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. But both countries now feel it is in their interest to normalise the relationship and open the border – not least to promote trade and to balance against Russian influence in the region. In recent months, Turkey and Armenia have increased the pace of this normalisation by opening air corridors, appointing special representatives, and initiating direct bilateral negotiations over the re-establishment of diplomatic relations and reopening the border. This process is a rare example of a positive sea change – and is likely to be one of the few bright spots in an increasingly unstable and competitive international order.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Normalization, and Rapprochement
Political Geography:
Turkey, Caucasus, Armenia, and Nagorno-Karabakh

33. PRC Foreign and Military Policy, 1977-81: Shades of Mao, the Imprint of Deng

Author:
Frederick C. Teiwes and Warren Sun
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:
This Working Paper is a draft chapter for a book on the poorly understood CCP elite politics of the early post-Mao period, tentatively entitled Hua Guofeng, Deng Xiaoping, and the Dismantling of Maoism. Conventional wisdom pictures the period up to the December 1978 Third Plenum as a struggle between Hua and Deng, reflecting neo-Maoist v. reformist tendencies, and won by Deng at the plenum. In fact, there was broad consensus between them, Hua was more proactive in key areas, and there is no evidence of anything approaching a power struggle. This paper, however, deals with an area where elements of accepted views of Deng hold up. In essence, Deng held both the foreign policy and particularly PLA portfolios, notably where they concerned the crucial relationships with the US, Soviet Union, Japan, and Vietnam. In external relations Deng was broadly regarded to have performed brilliantly, while Hua was thought a mere cypher. Overall, Hua was clearly secondary in external relations, but he took the bold step of initiating relations with revisionist Yugoslavia, made the most telling proposal in the high-level negotiations with the US, and deeply impressed dominant European leaders Margaret Thatcher and Helmut Schmidt. Deng’s foreign policy outlook was deeply influenced by Mao, he could push Mao’s “horizontal line” concept to counterproductive extremes, almost losing the Sino-Japanese Peace Treaty, and rather than brilliantly negotiating US normalization, the Chinese side was slow to grasp the outcome that was always there. Most significant, and revealing of the underlying dynamic of CCP politics, was the war against Vietnam. This was truly Deng’s war, opposed by not only Hua, but also by a broad array of senior civilian and PLA officials, including surviving marshals. This was essentially the first time since his return to work in 1977, in contrast to persuading his colleagues through intense effort, that Deng simply asserted his authority. Neither here or elsewhere, was argument decisive as it had generally been under Hua’s leadership to that point. What was decisive was Deng’s enormous prestige as the most outstanding of the surviving “old revolutionaries” who achieved the success of 1949. It was the same factor that allowed Deng’s quiet coup against Hua at the turn of 1979-80, with no significant resistance from Hua or anyone else, and with no explanation being made in any official forum until well after the fact.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Politics, Governance, Leadership, and Normalization
Political Geography:
China and Asia

34. Overcoming EU internal dividing lines in the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue

Author:
Wouter Zweers
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Last year saw the 10th anniversary of the EU-facilitated Belgrade-Pristina dialogue. While leading to results on technical matters, political normalisation of the relationship between Serbia and Kosovo has not been achieved. As part of a broader study on EU foreign policy effectiveness, this policy brief discusses the ways in which EU internal factors have hampered the EU’s effectiveness in the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue. Specifically, the paper assesses the positions and influence of EU member states vis-à-vis one another and the European institutions, asking how contradictions could be overcome in the future. This assessment is placed in the wider context in which the dialogue takes place, taking into account the state of EU enlargement and foreign power influence.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, European Union, Institutions, Normalization, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

35. Normalization between Turkey and Israel: Will it Last?

Author:
Gallia Lindenstrauss and Remi Daniel
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
The decision by Turkey and Israel to normalize their relations stems from several processes that brought the Turkish side to push for normalization and the Israeli side to respond affirmatively. Yet alongside the serious motivations of the two sides to continue this process, there are issues that could become obstacles. Among them are the developments between Israel and the Palestinians, Turkey-US relations, the dynamics of Turkey's integration in processes related to the Abraham Accords, and the nature of future Israeli plans regarding gas exports. Nonetheless, coping with challenges related to these issues will be easier with senior diplomatic representation present in both countries.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Asia

36. Saudi Arabia and Israel: Normalization at a Snail’s Pace

Author:
Yoel Guzansky
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Since the Abraham Accords were signed, and particularly with Biden’s visit to the region, some have argued that Saudi Arabia will be the next country to normalize relations with Israel. However, complete normalization is far from imminent. What are the reasons for this, and how should Israel act toward the Saudi kingdom?
Topic:
Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Saudi Arabia

37. A Tale of Two Normalizations: Israeli Normalization with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – Part I

Author:
Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
The “Treaty of Peace, Diplomatic Relations and Full Normalization Between the United Arab Emirates and the State of Israel” was signed on September 15, 2020. On the same day, Bahrain and Israel signed their “Declaration of Peace, Cooperation, and Constructive Diplomatic and Friendly Relations.” Since then, bilateral relations between the two states and Israel have progressed speedily, with many more issue-specific agreements signed and economic relations with the Emirates burgeoning. The Negev Conference on March 28, 2022, which was attended by the U.A.E., Bahrain, Egypt, and Morocco, as well as the United States, symbolized a maturing and coalescence of the regional normalization processes between Israel and conservative Arab states. This paper will address recent developments in the foreign policy of U.A.E. that impact the current status of relations with Israel, as well as recent developments in relations between the two states.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Abraham Accords
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, United States of America, Gulf Nations, and UAE

38. A Tale of Two Normalizations: Israeli Normalization with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain – Part II

Author:
Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Bahrain and Israel signed their “Declaration of Peace, Cooperation, and Constructive Diplomatic and Friendly Relations” on September 15, 2020; the “Treaty of Peace, Diplomatic Relations and Full Normalization Between the United Arab Emirates and the State of Israel” was signed on the same day. Since then, bilateral relations between the two states and Israel have rapidly progressed, with many more issue-specific agreements signed. The Negev Summit on March 28, 2022, which was attended by Bahrain, U.A.E., Egypt, and Morocco, as well as the United States, symbolized a maturing and coalescence of the regional normalization processes between Israel and conservative Arab states. A follow-up to the Negev Summit took place in Manama on June 27, 2022 and the steering committee, which was chaired by Bahraini Undersecretary for Political Affairs Sheikh Abdullah bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, formed working groups on security, health, education, tourism, food and water security, and energy.[1] A previous paper addressed recent developments in the foreign policy of U.A.E. which impact on the current status of relations with Israel, as well as recent developments in the two states’ bilateral relations. This paper will look at the context and content of relations between Israel and Bahrain, and analyze the overall state of normalization in the region at this stage.[2]
Topic:
Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Abraham Accords
Political Geography:
Israel, Palestine, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations

39. Zero-Sum versus Win-Win in the Middle East

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Iqtisadi: The Middle East Economy, Paul Rivlin analyses the economic effects of having a zero-sum versus a win-win approach to problems. Increased bilateral trade since the Abraham Accords offer an example of a win-win scenario while the current Lebanese crisis shows how difficult it can be to escape a zero-sum game.
Topic:
Economy, Normalization, Abraham Accords, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Jordan, and United Arab Emirates

40. A Year Later: Status and Perspectives on Israeli-Arab Normalisation

Author:
Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Israeli-Arab normalisation launched in August 2020 has proved to be a stable process so far. Relations are deepened by the interest of the parties despite changing conditions (e.g., the new government in Israel and the U.S.) or the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The future of the process remains dependent on U.S. policy towards the region and the scale of support for the new Israeli government.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Conflict, and Normalization
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries