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21. Prospects for Saudi Arabia-Israel Normalization

Author:
Alistair Taylor, Martin Indyk, Sanam Vakil, and Bilal Y. Saab
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
On this week's episode, MEI's Editor-In-Chief Alistair Taylor discusses the Biden administration’s push to reach a normalization accord between Saudi Arabia and Israel with Martin Indyk, Sanam Vakil, and Bilal Saab. While there are plenty of potential hurdles to reaching a deal — including Saudi Arabia’s steep demands, Israel’s far-right government, and challenging domestic politics here in the US — if done right, the potential geopolitical ramifications could be substantial.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Geopolitics, Domestic Politics, Far Right, and Normalization
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Saudi Arabia

22. Can Alternative Sequencing of Actions Break the Deadlock in Implementing the Agreement on the Path to Normalization between Kosovo and Serbia?

Author:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
The dispute between Kosovo and Serbia remains a major challenge to the security, stability, and prosperity of the entire Western Balkans region. In particular, the Banjska terrorist attack carried out by Serb militants against the Kosovo Police on September 24, 2023 (with the support from Serbia’s state apparatus, as per the investigation of Kosovar authorities) underscores the pressing need for a sustainable resolution to the ongoing dispute between Kosovo and Serbia. The most promising path toward such a resolution lies in the full implementation of the Agreement on the Path to Normalization of Relations between Kosovo and Serbia (APN), which was verbally agreed in Brussels in February 2023, because the Serbian President Vucic refused to sign it.
Topic:
Security, Political stability, Normalization, and Disputes
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

23. How the Agreement on the Path to Normalisation IF IMPLEMENTED changes relations between Kosovo and Serbia?

Author:
Ramadan Ilazi and Adelina Hasani
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
• The Agreement on the Path to Normalisation between Kosovo and Serbia (APN), creates a possibility for a new state of relations between the two countries, albeit a new status-quo. Through the APN Serbia practically recognizes statehood attributes of Kosovo, by accepting national symbols, as well as the obligation to respect the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Kosovo, and treat Kosovo on the basis of the principles of the Charter of the United Nations (UN), and the Treaty of the European Union (TEU). The APN also makes Kosovo and Serbia responsible to preserve the peace and “contribute to fruitful regional co-operation and security in Europe”. • The new state of relations (new status-quo), is dependent upon effective implementation of the Agreement on the Path to Normalisation. Without effective implementation, the APN becomes another conflict management tool, rather than an instrument for affirmative normalization of relations. The current trends are not optimistic for implementation and suggest that both parties, especially in Serbia, are focused on undermining the APN and its impact; • The Agreement on the Path to Normalisation between Kosovo and Serbia, while introduces significant affirmative changes in the Kosovo-Serbia relations – if implemented – it also includes elements that can potentially create legal and political hurdles for the Kosovo government. The APN marks the first time, that a Kosovo government accepts Serbia’s position on the status question. The preamble of the APN includes the following sentence: “[…] without prejudice to the different view of the Parties on fundamental questions, including on status questions”, but there is not reference to the ICJ advisory opinion on the declaration of independence of Kosovo. Based on the precedents set by previous agreements/arrangements between Kosovo and Serbia in the framework of the EU-facilitated normalization dialogue, whenever the phrasing “without prejudice to the status” was used, a reference to the ICJ advisory opinion on declaration of independence was also included; • The Agreement on the Path to Normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia has been welcomed by the European Council, which marks the first time that all 27 Member States of the European Union (EU) have endorsed an agreement from the normalization dialogue. The European Council conclusions note that APN puts “the relationship between both parties on a new and sustainable basis as a historic chance that should be seized by both parties” and urges implementation • In other words, if the optimistic scenario of all five recognizing Kosovo fails, then Spain and Cyprus should move towards the current Greek position on Kosovo, while Greece itself, alongside Slovakia and Romania, should move to formal recognition. In Kosovo there are concerns about the position of Romania, which is seen as moving further away from constructive engagement with Kosovo and recognition and closer to the position of Spain. • The role of the European Union (EU) as a facilitator in the dialogue for normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia, has arguably evolved into an arbiter, as a result of the Agreement on the Path to Normalization (APN), and the implementation roadmap. This means that for Kosovo and Serbia implementation of the provisions from the APN is a contractual obligation towards the EU in the framework of the European integration process. This arrangement was necessitated by the refusal of Serbia to sign the APN, although it agreed to it verbally. In this context, when neither side has signed the APN, the role of EU as an arbiter is a must, in order to guarantee implementation by both countries. • The transparency of the process of the dialogue for normalization of relations with Serbia has declined in Kosovo. The Kosovo government has limited its reporting on the normalization dialogue both to the public as well as to the Kosovo Assembly. In addition to this, Kosovo government has acted against previous precedents of asking the Kosovo Assembly for consent when accepting a high-level agreement with Serbia, such as the case from 2013 with the “First agreement of principles governing the normalization of relations”. • The implementation annex to the Agreement on the Path to Normalisation of relations between Kosovo and Serbia agreed in Ohrid in March, is vague, and lacks concrete measures to ensure implementation of the agreement, including sequencing of actions.
Topic:
Security, Sovereignty, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

24. Armenia-Türkiye Relations: Attempts at Normalization

Author:
Könül Şahin
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The Armenian and Turkish people have lived together for centuries in the same geography under various regime types and within various political forms. As countries, Armenia and Türkiye initially established diplomatic relations during the brief period of the first Armenian republic, which corresponded to the nascent years of the Republic of Türkiye. The absorption of Armenia into the Soviet Union put an end to this initial phase. It was only after Armenia regained its independence, in the context of the dissolution of the Soviet Union, that conditions enabling the renewal of state-to-state ties were again established. This essay provides an account of this complicated journey, which has not yet reached its destination. It is intended to serve as an analytic contribution to ongoing efforts by Ankara and Yerevan to normalize bilateral relations within the framework of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, with which it remains politically preconditioned. This essay also carries an oftentimes implicit subtext—no less important in a certain sense—namely, the role played by Azerbaijan in general and Heydar Aliyev in particular (2023 marks the centenary of his birth and the vigenary of his death) in influencing the development of the Armenia-Türkiye relationship.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Normalization
Political Geography:
Turkey, Armenia, and South Caucasus

25. Defining Strategic Direction: Azerbaijan and the New Regional Geopolitical Configuration

Author:
Gulshan Pashayeva
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
More than two years have passed since the Second Karabakh War ended and the 10 November 2020 tripartite statement was signed. This essay presents the main priority areas for Azerbaijan of the initial phase of the post-conflict period for which the specific work is currently underway. It then examines the impact of the evolving regional geopolitical landscape to the ongoing normalization process between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Normalization
Political Geography:
Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and Nagorno-Karabakh

26. Leveraging Friction: Using Israel’s tensions with normalization countries to engage them in Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking

Author:
Gil Murciano
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
Since the signing of the Abraham Accords, Israeli governments have successfully isolated the normalization process from events in the Israeli-Palestinian arena. This separation has assisted the development of the process but, at the same time, impeded its potential to expand and deepen. In the last few months, the Netanyahu-Smotrich government has pursued policy efforts to challenge the status quo in the Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPT), increasing the risk of Israeli-Palestinian escalation. These steps changed the normalization countries’ attitudes towards Israel and the Palestinian issue. Their attempt to minimize involvement in the Palestinian issue has been replaced by a strong stance against Israeli government policy, and increased involvement, especially by the United Arab Emirates, in the Palestinian arena. Moreover, normalization countries appear to be reconsidering their policy of normalization vis-à-vis Israel and the value of further developing relations with it if the government continues its current line of escalation. The mainstream political right has branded the normalization process a historic success story. Its popularity among the general public, particularly moderate right-wing voters, turns normalization countries into significant leverage points to stop Israeli annexation and escalation activities. The threat of downgrading relations could incentivize the Israeli government to refrain from violating the status quo in the OPT. Subsequently, the specific involvement of the normalization countries in halting the escalation trends may serve as a basis for expanding their overall political involvement in the Palestinian issue, as separate countries or as part of international coalitions. Paradoxically, this Israeli right-wing government and its escalatory policies create an opportunity to finally leverage the normalization process to promote Israeli-Palestinian peace.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Occupation, Normalization, Abraham Accords, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

27. Resetting the Kosovo-Serbia Normalization Process

Author:
European Institute of Peace
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:
This policy paper suggests a way forward to overcome the impasse in the Kosovo-Serbia normalization dialogue, and to enable conditions for a sustained process and successful implementation. It argues that the oscillating international attention and the resulting inability to closely monitor developments and conduct remedial steps at the first sign of non-compliance is an essential part of the problem. Therefore, the non-paper proposes a structural solution to reset the process and be able to identify, monitor, and address non-compliance early on, thus preventing derails and escalations.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Normalization, Dialogue, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Balkans

28. The Ultimate Goal of the War – a New Regional and Global Architecture

Author:
Kobi Michael
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The Gaza war should serve to upend the existing order and usher in a new regional order. This transformation will be reflected in a new regional framework that relies on the normalization process between Israel and the Arab world, spearheaded by Saudi Arabia. The great war against the axis of evil should not stop there. Israel and the free world must continue the relentless pursuit of the leaders of terrorist organizations and their operatives worldwide.
Topic:
Terrorism, Normalization, Regional Security, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Saudi Arabia

29. Jordan’s role in a possible Saudi-Israeli-American deal: A vital link in the chain

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Amid the ongoing complex negotiations of Saudi-Israeli normalization, keeping the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan on board is essential. Despite grudges and occasional tensions, Jordan shares strategic interests with Saudi Arabia and stands to gain significant benefits once the proposed trade and transportation “corridor” from India to Europe passes through its territory. It is, therefore, advisable to leave the status quo in Jerusalem intact, and include Jordan in formulating any “package.”
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Trade, Normalization, Strategic Interests, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan

30. Israel’s relations with Morocco and the future of the Abraham Accords

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The time is ripe for Israel to take the initiative rather than wait for pre-arranged reciprocal terms and remove the critical remaining obstacle to full and formal diplomatic relations with the kingdom.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North Africa, and Morocco