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21. Temperatures, Tensions Roil Government – The Yemen Review, June & July 2023

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Summer has been dominated by rising tensions among the Saudi-led coalition, as competition between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates continues to undermine the internationally recognized government. The current phase of the rivalry is centered on Hadramawt, the vast eastern governorate bordering Saudi Arabia that has seen repeated bouts of political and military agitation. Saudi talks with the Houthi group (Ansar Allah) are currently on hold, hung up on now-familiar disagreements over the kingdom’s belligerent status and payment of public sector salaries. Perhaps stung by its lack of progress in the negotiations, Saudi Arabia announced new support for the government, totaling some US$1.2 billion. The funding rescued a government in financial crisis: battered by an effective Houthi blockade of oil and gas exports, it could not even afford to keep the lights on. Lengthening blackouts during the hottest months of the year and the cratering value of the Yemeni rial led to protests and political recriminations as the situation grew more desperate. But the faltering peace talks may also augur new rounds of violence. Houthi forces have deployed in increasing numbers outside Marib, and may yet renew their aspirations to capture the city and nearby oilfields. Foreign observers and senior Houthi military commanders have been on hand at maneuvers in the governorate. Tensions are also building on the Red Sea Coast, where the Houthis are mobilizing naval forces on islands near international shipping lanes. Pro-government forces have also moved to the sea, competing to occupy bases near the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
Topic:
Negotiation, Houthis, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations

22. Saudi-Houthi Talks Resume – The Yemen Review, August 2023

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The strategic city of Marib saw an increase in fighting on several fronts. The Houthis have been reinforcing their positions in the area, which they attempted to seize in a massive and costly offensive two years ago. Should negotiations break down, Marib is seen as a likely area of renewed contestation due to its oil and gas resources. A new counterterrorist campaign was launched in Abyan to target Al-Qaeda forces in the governorate. Named ‘Swords of Haws’, the operation is being conducted by an array of STC and pro-government forces. The campaign reported it had succeeded in securing the Rafd and Jenin Valleys, but had faced strong resistance from Al-Qaeda forces in Mudiya district. Frontline fighting on the border of Al-Bayda and Lahj rose significantly in August, including a particularly large Houthi assault on STC positions on August 26-27 that resulted in dozens of casualties. Two Doctors Without Borders employees were kidnapped by unidentified gunmen in Marib as they traveled from Seyoun. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the incident. An officer investigating last month’s killing of World Food Programme Moayad Hameidi was assassinated. The officer, a member of the Taiz Political Security department, had received death threats and demanded he halt the investigation. Five UN employees were released on August 11, after being held captive by Al-Qaeda for more than 18 months. The group was reportedly released after lengthy Omani mediation and the payment of a ransom, though the UN has disputed these claims. Houthi forces continue to besiege villages of the Bani Nawf tribe in Al-Jawf following the killing of a prominent local Houthi commander. A number of tribes have responded by calling for united action, others have sided with the Houthis.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Negotiation, Houthis, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations

23. Disarming the Bomb: Distilling the Drivers and Disincentives for Iran's Nuclear Program

Author:
Jonathan Lord, Arona Baigal, Hunter Streling, and Stewart Latwin
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
Negotiations to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), known commonly as the Iran nuclear deal, reached an impasse this past year. Further, Iran made parallel decisions to brutally crack down on a nationwide protest movement and to inject itself into the conflict in Ukraine by furnishing Russia with weapons. These decisions may have rendered the impasse insurmountable. U.S. President Joe Biden has not retreated from the U.S. policy that it will never allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon. However, Iran’s maximalist demands at the negotiating table, along with its domestic and foreign activities, have made it politically impossible for the United States and Europe to pursue further negotiation. Further complicating the situation and perhaps rendering the JCPOA increasingly obsolete, critical provisions of the original deal will expire in 2025 and 2030.1 The United States and the international community must consider how to constrain Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear deterrent in a post-JCPOA world, in which Iran has never been closer to achieving a bomb. The CNAS Middle East Security Program designed and ran a scenario exercise in October 2022 to identify key factors that might accelerate or decelerate Iran’s nuclear program in 2024. Additionally, the exercise explored how Iran, the United States, Israel, and the Gulf nations could prioritize their own national security objectives with respect to Iran’s nuclear program, along with the potential actions each might take to accomplish those objectives. The exercise examined two scenarios. Scenario 1 explored key countries’ policy actions and perspectives if the United States and Iran failed to reenter the JCPOA. Scenario 2 explored key countries’ policy actions and perspectives if the United States and Iran successfully renegotiated a return to compliance with the JCPOA and faced the imminent expiration of elements of the deal. Overall observations from the exercise suggest that Iran’s leadership’s primary concern is self-preservation. Pursuing a nuclear program is secondary and ultimately serves to advance the primary objective (self-preservation). U.S. policymakers face many challenges in rallying partners against Iran while prioritizing a negotiated approach to curtail Iran’s nuclear program.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Negotiation, Deterrence, and JCPOA
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

24. The Shell and the Seed: Lessons from the Negotiation with the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia

Author:
Marta Ruiz
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
The achievement of total peace is not a new goal for Colombia. For the better part of the last 30 years, most government administrations have attempted to negotiate or subdue all existing armed groups either simultaneously or sequentially. However, the results so far have been partial and insufficient to address the structural causes and persistent factors behind a 60-year internal armed conflict. The product of a collaboration between ICTJ and the researcher, journalist, and former commissioner of the Colombian Truth Commission, Marta Ruiz, this study presents new points of view and reflections on the negotiations with the paramilitary forces in the first years of 2000. These reflections can be useful not only to inform public debate but also as input for decisionmakers and those who design strategies for negotiation and the pursuit of total peace underway today in Colombia. The first part explains the genesis of the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) and describes their transition from drug traffickers to political and military actors. It presents evidence that since the 1980s the Colombian state has attempted to negotiate with drug traffickers using different narratives about their nature. The second part describes what happened at the Santafé Ralito negotiation table, the discussion’s agenda, and how the political context affected the process. It also shows how political timing, in particular President Uribe's reelection, affected the process’s outcome. The big question it asks, one with no single answer, is why, if negotiations were being held with drug traffickers, there was no real talk of dismantling drug trafficking. The third part assesses the consequences of the process, both in terms of justice and reintegration. It attempts to explain how the demobilized armed groups were reactivated in the territories.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Armed Forces, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

25. Oslo at 30: Personal Perspectives from Washington Institute Scholars: A Compendium

Author:
Dennis Ross, David Makovsky, Neomi Neumann, Ghaith al-Omari, and Mohammed S. Dajani
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On the thirtieth anniversary of the landmark Oslo I Accord, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy has published a remarkable compendium that includes essays by officials who played significant roles in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process from the deal’s signing in September 1993 through the present. The volume includes personal perspectives from former diplomats, analysis of public opinion among Israelis and Palestinians, and policy recommendations for U.S. officials. The writers conclude that while the prospects for peace appear dim at the moment, wise policymaking may yet fulfill the promise of the Oslo Accords.
Topic:
Negotiation, Peace, Oslo Accords, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

26. The Israel-Hamas war and the role of Qatar and Egypt

Author:
Brian Katulis, Mirette F. Mabrouk, and Rachel Dooley
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
The Middle East Institute hosted an on-the-record press briefing to discuss the role of key regional partners Qatar and Egypt in the Israel-Hamas conflict, from the question of hostage negotiations being led by Doha to the evacuation of U.S. citizens and the wounded to Egypt. Recorded Tuesday, November 7, 2023.
Topic:
Negotiation, Hamas, Regional Politics, Hostage Crisis, and October 7
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Egypt, and Qatar

27. International Negotiations Handbook: Success Through Preparation, Strategy and Planning

Author:
Public International Law Policy Group and Baker & McKenzie
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
All of us at one time or another must negotiate with others – adversaries, interested third parties, friends – to achieve our objectives. Each party to a negotiation has its own desires, goals, and prejudices. The key is for a party to understand these matters for itself and for all other parties to a negotiation. It takes advanced preparation, strategic-thinking, and a written, detailed plan for any party to successfully achieve its objectives. The International Negotiations Handbook: Success Through Preparation, Strategy, and Planning is designed to provide some tools and ideas to assist every party to a negotiation to be a more effective advocate for its interests and, as a result, to achieve successful negotiations overall. This project comes as the result of a year-long joint effort between Baker & McKenzie LLP and the Public International Law & Policy Group (PILPG). Baker & McKenzie has provided sophisticated legal advice and services to many of the world’s most dynamic and global organizations for more than 50 years. The Firm’s more than 3500 lawyers are citizens of more than 60 countries and speak more than 65 languages, and one of its core values is to encourage all of its lawyers and staff to participate in service to others. Across its offices, Baker & McKenzie makes a significant commitment to helping others, through pro bono legal service, community service, fund-raising and charitable giving. The Firm’s pro bono and community service activities take many forms, ranging from multi-country projects on behalf of global organizations, such as Save the Children Alliance and Habitat for Humanity, to local efforts to represent children, foster entrepreneurship, raise funds for medical research, support the arts and more.
Topic:
International Law, Treaties and Agreements, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28. National dialogue – a tool for conflict prevention in Eswatini

Author:
Craig Moffat
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
As the Kingdom of Eswatini plans to deal with the consequences of pro-democracy protests and the continued calls for the establishment of a national dialogue seemingly going unanswered, it may be an opportune time to examine what type of national dialogue would benefit the country. It has been over a year since King Mswati III agreed to the Southern African Development Community’s (SADC) leaders’ proposal to ensure conditions are conducive for setting up a national dialogue. National dialogues are becoming an increasingly popular tool for conflict resolution, and in the case of Eswatini, political transformation. In recent years, we have witnessed several attempts to conduct national dialogues as critical tools in the prevention of conflict and for managing political crises and transitions in the SADC region. By agreeing to undertake this political process, it increases the potential for a more meaningful engagement as it increases participation beyond that of the political elites, while also creating a platform for deeper discussions to formulate solutions to the crisis. This paper examines and proposes the type of national dialogue best suited to bring together the conflicting parties and bring an end to the political protests and violence.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Negotiation, and National Dialogue
Political Geography:
Africa and Eswatini

29. Inconsistent Signals Is Iran truly committed to resuming nuclear negotiations?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has urged further efforts to resurrect the nuclear deal with the West and relieve sanctions imposed on his country. This is also consistent with efforts to undermine the impact of sanctions that affect citizens' living conditions. This came during his meeting with the Iranian President and government members on Wednesday, August 30, 2023.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Negotiation, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

30. Azerbaijan and Armenia: War Looms as Prospects for Negotiated Settlement Recede

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Due to their failure to resolve disputes through negotiations, tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia have escalated, potentially to the point of a new war and even armed conflict between Iran and Turkey.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Negotiation, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh