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112. Turkey’s struggling economy, regional isolation, behind latest charm offensive with Israel and other countries
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- A clear Turkish rationale for better relations with Israel is to weaken the strategic partnership between Jerusalem, Greece, and Cyprus and get access to Israel’s natural gas.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Natural Resources, Gas, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Israel
113. Venezuela Oil Sanctions: Not an Easy Fix
- Author:
- Luisa Palacios and Francisco J. Monaldi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has upended global energy markets and brought energy security issues back to the forefront of global attention. The unexpected visit of a US government delegation to Caracas for talks with Nicolas Maduro on March 5th may be considered an example of official recognition of this imperative.[1] The visit led to speculation that sanctions on the Maduro regime could be lifted and that a rapid ramp up of Venezuelan oil production and export could result.[2] This commentary makes three arguments concerning these recent developments. First, rather than potentially leading to the lifting of US sanctions on the Maduro regime, the visit could result in – provided certain conditions are met – an easing or softening of existing oil sanctions via licenses for some of the international oil companies (IOCs) that still operate in Venezuela.[3] Second, in the short term, it is unlikely that this scenario, should it come to pass, would offer any meaningful relief to global oil markets, as substantial increments in oil production from Venezuela would require overcoming many obstacles and risks, even with a potential softening of oil sanctions. However, the latter would likely lead to the redirection of Venezuela’s existing oil exports to the US market. Third, Venezuela has already seen a recovery of oil production, albeit from historically low levels. In a context of no sanctions relief, continued recovery is not guaranteed and might depend on how geopolitical events impact Russian oil exports and the outcome of the Iranian nuclear negotiations.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
114. Sanctions and the Economic Consequences of Higher Oil Prices
- Author:
- Christof Ruhl
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Sanctions against the Russian Federation are developing so fast that it is hard to keep track of them and even harder to see a consistent narrative as events unfold. But there is one. Russia is the world’s largest exporter of energy and commodities. A persistent balance of payment surplus is the source of its financial strength, in terms of both current income and the financial assets previously accumulated by “fortress Russia.” Oil, gas, and coal exports constitute the most valuable revenue streams and are therefore prime targets of sanctions policy.[1] The problem is that energy sanctions will backfire badly if they lead to price increases large enough to derail the economic performance of sanctioning countries.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
115. The economic impact of COVID-19 on Turkish-Azeri bilateral relations
- Author:
- Duncan Labadie
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- While the economic instability of the international system resurrected debates about the future of the World Order, diving against the current and studying in a destabilizing pandemic context a bilateralism touted for its durability and solidity seemed academically attractive. Thus, the purpose of this research paper is to verify whether COVID-19 is causing fatal economic disruptions among the iron alliances, or if on the contrary one is witnessing an "unnatural" strengthening. By reconciling empirical data (reports of the Central Bank, the OSCE, press articles) and academic papers, this study analyzes the surprising Turkish-Azeri economic consolidation before questioning its still-perceptible limitsin the short and long term. This work concludes that through the neorealist prism, Ankara and Baku managed to transform Covidian negativity into an element of strategic economic cooperation aimed at repairing financial loopholes on a national scale.
- Topic:
- Economics, War, Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, COVID-19, Liberalization, and Asymmetric Relations
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Azerbaijan
116. How Violent Conflicts Impact Women in Oil-Producing Niger Delta Communities: A Policy Perspective
- Author:
- Onyinyechukwu Durueke
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Social Science Research Council
- Abstract:
- This policy brief focuses on how women are affected by violent conflicts in the oilproducing Niger Delta region of Nigeria, including the coping mechanisms women victims adopt in conflict-affected communities. It draws on the findings of fieldbased research on the experiences of women in the aftermath of the military invasions of Odi1 and Gbaramatu,2 the leadership tussle in Rumuekpe,3 communal/ intra-ethnic conflict in K-Dere and B-Dere,4 communal conflict with a multinational oil corporation in Evwreni,5 and electoral violence in Imiringi. This brief also makes recommendations for addressing gender-based violence in the region.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Women, Violence, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Niger
117. Introducción a “Recursos desiguales: retos de la seguridad en la encrucijada de la sostenibilidad”
- Author:
- Rosa Ana Alija Fernández
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
- Institution:
- International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
- Abstract:
- En lo que va de década,el mundo está asistiendo a una sucesión vertiginosa de amenazas a la seguridad: desde la agresión de Rusia a Ucrania, que ha reavivado tensiones militares entre potencias que parecen evocarla Guerra Fría–con amenaza nuclearincluida–,hasta la pandemia de la COVID-19, la carestía de alimentos, la escasez de energía, o los efectos de la aceleración del cambio climático yla degradación medioambiental. Calificar este último bloque de “nuevas amenazas” sería despreciar la realidad de buena parte de la población mundial, que lleva décadas experimentándolas, y que ya fueron señaladascomo amenazas a la paz y la seguridad por Kofi Annan en su informe Un concepto más amplio de la libertad(SGNU, 2005: párr. 78). Lo que resulta realmente novedoso es que ahora están impactando de lleno en los países desarrollados, que ya no pueden limitarse a tratar de repeler los efectos de estosfenómenos en otros puntos del planetacomo parte de su agenda de seguridadnacional(Wilkin, 2002: 634, 641).Por el contrario, empiezan a constatar que la rápida expansión desde los años 90 del modelo económico neoliberal en un planeta que dispone de recursos limitados está generando ya riesgos a supropia seguridad nacional, además de a la seguridad internacional.Así, poco ha tardado en comenzar a materializarsela previsión realizada porPaul Rogers,quienha señalado que en las dos próximas décadas habrá tres factores predominantes de inseguridad global: i) una turbulenta economía mundial basada en un sistema neoliberal fallido que está incrementando las brechas socioeconómicas, ii) los límites medioambientales a la actividad humana, y iii) el arraigo de una cultura de la seguridad centrada en el uso de fuerza militar como respuesta a las amenazas, incapaz de asegurar la paz y la estabilidad en un mundo socioeconómicamente dividido y medioambientalmente constreñido (Rogers,2019: 139).
- Topic:
- Security, Natural Resources, Inequality, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
118. La OTAN y los límites del crecimiento
- Author:
- José Luis Gordillo
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
- Institution:
- International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
- Abstract:
- La nueva guerra fría, cuya primera batalla parece estar librándose en Ucrania, se produce en un contexto muy diferente al de la guerra fría del siglo veinte. En la tercera década del siglo veintiuno, el mundo se enfrenta a las consecuencias dela superaciónde buena parte de los límites de sostenibilidad, cuyas principales manifestaciones son el cambio climático, el agotamiento de muchas materias primas y la crisis energética. Este hecho puede conducir a una lucha desesperada por los recursos limitados entre países y regiones. En estas circunstancias, una nueva confrontación planetaria entre potencias nucleares es lo que menos necesita la humanidad para poder afrontar con éxito los grandes problemas globales. En este artículo se propone una reflexión crítica sobre estas cuestiones con el fin de reivindicar el retorno a las políticas de cooperación internacional y de resolución pacífica de los conflictos.
- Topic:
- NATO, Cold War, International Cooperation, Natural Resources, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
119. Measuring Extractives Dependency: Why it Matters and New Approaches
- Author:
- William Davis
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- When countries depend too heavily on extractive industries (extraction of nonrenewable natural resources) it can pose problems for their economies. These include: The volatility of natural resource commodity prices, which can cause shocks that are difficult for the country to manage The exhaustibility of natural resources and the challenges of replacing them as a source of income when they run out The political economy of governments relying on natural resources, which seems to make governments less effective (e.g., if they rely on resource wealth to fund themselves rather than developing other sectors of the economy) To address resource dependency, we need to be able to measure it. With this in mind, NRGI has produced a new dataset that builds on existing literature to provide a broad range of indicators of dependency on the extractive industries. This dataset is primarily for internal use by NRGI colleagues, but is also freely available to interested researchers. The aim of this dataset is to support a more multidimensional approach to understanding resource dependency, its causes and consequences. The related briefing explains the rationale behind the dataset and its various indicators, and some includes some initial insights based on analysis of the data.
- Topic:
- Natural Resources, Tax Systems, Data, Revenue Management, and Dependency
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
120. Climate Change and the Environment in the Middle East and North Africa 2021-2022
- Author:
- Mohamed Abufalgha
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- Citizens across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are well-aware of the environmental challenges facing their countries and the region at large. Among a number of environmental issues, access to clean water stands out as the most important challenge troubling pluralities in all countries surveyed in Arab Barometers Seventh Wave, followed by waste management and air quality. MENA citizens differ, however, in their perceptions of the most pressing water-related issues facing their communities. In Egypt, Iraq, Tunisia, Sudan, and Jordan, at least half cite pollution of drinking water as the main water issue while pluralities do the same in Lebanon and Palestine. In Kuwait and Libya, pollution of waterways is a more important issue while Mauritanians and Algerians voice more concern regarding lack of water resources than other water issues. The majorities of people in all countries surveyed hold each other and their governments responsible for contributing to the environmental challenges facing the region. This view transcends all demographic differences in most countries as people share the view despite differences in age, education, income, and gender. In response to climate change, at least pluralities want their governments to do more in all countries surveyed. Only small minorities in all countries say they want their governments to do less on this front. Support for more government involvement in addressing climate change tends to be more pronounced among urbanites and those whose income covers their expenses in most countries. When compared to other issues, like food insecurity, subsidies, or education, however, the environment ranks lowest in the list of priorities for government spending as well as preference for foreign aid.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Natural Resources, and Public Opinion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North Africa