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82. A Significant Change in Russian Doctrine on Nuclear Weapon Use
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- Speaking to the Russian Presidential Security Council on Sept 25, 2024, Vladimir Putin asserted that “Aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state… supported by a nuclear power should be treated as their joint attack.” But what does this imply for the Ukraine war and more generally? Although the announcement reaffirms several long-standing provisions of Russian nuclear weapon doctrine, it does add something new and portentous. It asserts that Russia may reply to a massive aerial attack on the homeland while it is underway even if the attack is purely conventional. The perceived “massiveness” of the attack is held practically speaking to be equivalent to an existential attack. The new view may also imply that such an attack by Ukraine would be considered a joint UA-NATO attack and possibly warrant a similar response.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
83. NATO’s “Back to the Future”: A Conversation with Dr. Benedetta Berti
- Author:
- Benedetta Berti
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Fletcher Security Review
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- In 2022, the Concept was written right in the middle of Russia’s brutal war of aggression against Ukraine. All of those assumptions that we had in 2010 simply don’t work. The potential of conventional war cannot be dismissed. The notion that the Euro-Atlantic area is an area of stability and predictability—well, the reality is that those tools that provide for predictability and stability are all under tremendous pressure. So this Concept starts by saying: unfortunately, our security environment is the most complex that we’ve had for generations, and we need to act and prepare accordingly. One of the priorities is to rebuild the ability to ensure the territorial defense of Allies and to rebuild our deterrence and defense posture in a way that is credible for what is essentially a much more competitive world. So that’s a big change. It’s just beyond words. If you accept that assessment, it requires a significantly more robust investment in defense, in rebuilding our militaries, in investing in the right capabilities, and in rebuilding our defense industry. So, it is a generational shift.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Instability, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe and North America
84. The Future of U.S.-Turkish Ties: A New Relationship, Not a Reset
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Despite the welcome news on Sweden, the old Turkey is not coming back, but Erdogan’s apparent shift to legacy-building mode will give Washington opportunities to leverage his influence abroad. On January 23, Turkey’s parliament ratified Sweden’s accession to NATO, opening the path for Stockholm’s eventual membership in the alliance. The Biden administration attaches great importance to NATO expansion amid Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, and while the Swedish membership bid must still await a vote by Hungary’s parliament, Turkey’s decision is a major step forward. Previously, Ankara had held off greenlighting Stockholm’s application for nearly two years after it was submitted in May 2022, and the issue became symbolic of deeper dysfunction in U.S.-Turkish ties. This week’s parliamentary vote promises to end that epoch, giving both Washington and Ankara an opportunity to chart a new course even as other differences persist.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Bilateral Relations, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, North America, Sweden, and United States of America
85. The Role of International Organizations in Promoting Peace and Security in the Middle East
- Author:
- Mohammad Al-Rawashdeh
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Political Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- This study aims to enhance the effectiveness of international organizations in promoting peace and security in the Middle East. It examines current international cooperation and the growing hesitance of states towards these organizations. The research evaluates how international governmental organizations contribute to world peace, the validity of their claims, and the theories explaining their actions. It also explores the role of these organizations in regional security and recommends ways to improve their effectiveness. Using the "shorthand to absurd" method, the study highlights that international actors often face complex situations without clear solutions and cannot rely on force. Instead, it advocates for a peaceful approach by simplifying these complexities. Ultimately, the article emphasizes the need to address peace, security, development, and human rights in the Middle East. The article asserts that the international community must intensify its efforts to secure lasting peace in the region. The United Nations Security Council, along with the League of Nations, the General Assembly, and various international organizations, has been essential in establishing the critical norms that uphold global peace and security, especially in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, NATO, Diplomacy, International Organization, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Peace, and Economic Development
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
86. El futuro de la OTAN en su 75 aniversario
- Author:
- Gustavo Palomares
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Fundación Alternativas
- Abstract:
- El 75 aniversario de la OTAN coincide con su mayor transformación a consecuencia del momento que atraviesa Europa ante el conflicto de Ucrania, los nuevos riesgos y amenazas, o las próximas elecciones en EEUU. El nuevo concepto estratégico aprobado en la Cumbre de Madrid en 2022 supone una ampliación de objetivos y escenarios, que se extienden a Oriente Medio, Mediterráneo, Sahel o el Sur Global. La Fundación Alternativas y la Secretaría General de Política de Defensa del Ministerio de Defensa de España presentaron el informe “El futuro de la OTAN en su 75 aniversario. Guerra en Europa y escenario internacional en transformación”. Este documento pone de manifiesto la necesidad de reaccionar a la agresión rusa en Ucrania fortaleciendo los mecanismos de coordinación e inter-operabilidad entre la Alianza y los socios de la UE desde una perspectiva de complementariedad.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe and United States of America
87. Artillery in Present and Future High-Intensity Operations
- Author:
- Elio Calcagno, Bryan Clark, Sam Cranny-Evans, Alessandro Marrone, Nicolò Murgia, and Eugenio Po
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The Ukraine war has highlighted among NATO allies the importance of planning for protracted, large-scale, and high-intensity conflicts. In this context, artillery capabilities have regained significance, with a clear emphasis on survivability, quality, quantity, range, but also on adequate munition stocks and production capacity. However, successful integration into a wider array of capabilities (including long range precision fires) and advanced Intelligence Surveillance Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance (ISTAR) capabilities are crucial for an effective artillery force. Meanwhile, in the maritime domain, recent events in the Red Sea have shown how naval artillery is gaining a prominent role as a cost-effective solution to defence from drone and swarming threats.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Procurement, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United Kingdom, Ukraine, France, Italy, and United States of America
88. US-Germany Missile Agreement: Deterrence or Escalation?
- Author:
- Polina Sinovets
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- This October was marked by a statement by the Head of the German Foreign Service Intelligence, Bruno Kahl, who claimed that by the end of this decade at the latest, Russian troops could “carry out an attack” against NATO.[1] The defence chief could hardly be accused of hyperbole. His comments took place at the time of Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine, the Kremlin’s growing nuclear blackmail of the West and regular threats to use some measures[2] against any NATO country whose military deployments might potentially affect Russian missiles’ striking capabilities. Against this backdrop and with the new US administration coming to power in 2025 under the slogan of turning all its attention to China, Europe will have to care much more about its defence and security than before 2022. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine revealed the weak spots of the European NATO pillar in terms of arms production, military budgeting and general preparedness for a large-scale war in European territory, which turns out to be critical for the security of the continent.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Deterrence, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Germany, and United States of America
89. Gender diversity management in NATO for sustainable security and peace
- Author:
- Kamila Trochowska-Sviderok, Yvonne Rose Masakowski, Montgomery McFate, and Anne Holohan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Security and Defence Quarterly
- Institution:
- War Studies University
- Abstract:
- The article focuses on the need for a paradigm shift in diversity management for sustainable peace and security. We discuss the bidirectional influence of security and defence organisations and society; the intersectionality of issues related to social justice, health, race, and ethnicity; sexual abuse and exploitation; and cultural factors that influence the functioning of LGBTQ+ personnel and the gender/technology nexus in the context of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). During the application of the Sustainable Security Paradigm to gender diversity management, we found that ecofeminism and the ideas of post-colonial theory should inform the transformational shift of contemporary security and defence organisational cultures. This approach was used by the multinational NATO Science & Technology Organization Exploratory Team ET-197 Gender, Peace and Sustainable Security (2022-23) and its successor, the NATO HFM-368 Research Task Group (2023-26). Our research efforts were triangulated by an analysis of doctrinal textual, audiovisual and art sources that relate to gender diversity and its management. Given the complexity of future warfare, there is a strategic imperative to develop an inclusive defence strategy that reconfigures the traditional white male-focused military paradigm. It is evident that the root cause of gender inequality cannot be solved solely by doctrine and training solutions—rather a transformational organisational culture shift is pivotal and critical to the future global security. This is the first article that addresses the issues of gender diversity management for sustainable security and peace in an interdisciplinary and holistic manner. Our approach is relevant to any organisation with internal gender and intersectional diversity and systemic discrimination.
- Topic:
- NATO, International Security, Social Justice, Sustainability, and Gender Minorities
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
90. A discussion of Kosovo- NATO relations and prospects for greater cooperation
- Author:
- Leureta Lumi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Abstract:
- Membership of Kosovo in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is regarded as a national interest across Kosovo’s political spectrum and receives substantial public support. According to the 2022 Security Barometer by the Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS), an overwhelming 92 percent of all citizens in Kosovo are in favor of joining NATO. This support is even more pronounced among the Kosovo Albanians, where the approval rate soars to 99.5 percent. This is the only objective in Kosovo that enjoys this level of public backing. Kosovo’s Security Strategy 2022-2027 states ‘The irreplaceable aim of the Republic of Kosovo is NATO membership and integration as the mechanism that provides long-term strategic security’. NATO’s leading role in ending the 1999 war and averting a potential genocide in Kosovo is widely seen as a major reason behind the strong public support for the alliance. However, this sentiment has been reinforced by recent developments, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, intensifying Kosovo’s appreciation for NATO membership. The urgency for Kosovo to join NATO is further heightened by the unresolved bilateral disputes with Serbia and the increasingly adversarial positions of Serbian President Vucic towards, as shown by a recent statement from him, which implies that on Kosovo, Serbia should learn from Azerbaijan, adding that: “They waited 27 years for special geopolitical circumstances”. The Banjska terrorist attack in September 2023, which is believed to have been orchestrated with the support of Serbian security institutions and in cooperation with Russia, reinforces the perception that Serbia sees a military solution to the “Kosovo problem”. Although Kosovo benefits from NATO’s protection via the KFOR mission, NATO’s stance on Kosovo remains status-neutral, with no significant advancement in NATO-Kosovo political relations since 2016. This paper delves into these challenges and seeks to explore the obstacles Kosovo faces on its path to NATO membership. Accordingly, this paper includes an analysis of the current NATO-Kosovo relations, options for Kosovo to enhance these relations and overcome key challenges, including exploration of the Partnership for Peace and the Membership Action Plan (MAP), a review of NATO accession processes in Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia, and concluding remarks with recommendations.
- Topic:
- NATO, Public Opinion, Regional Security, and Security Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Kosovo