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431. Russia in the Arctic—A Critical Examination

Author:
Eugene Rumer, Richard Sokolsky, and Paul Stronski
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Russia has big Arctic plans, but how they will be realized is uncertain. For the United States this will likely mean the return to a Cold War–like environment rather than a new chapter in great-power competition in the Arctic. Russia’s Arctic ambitions have attracted increasing attention in the West over the past decade as climate change opens up new opportunities in the region for navigation and exploration of its riches. For its part, Moscow casts a wary eye on what it sees as a challenge from the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to its position and ambitions there. The Kremlin’s rhetoric about Western encroachment has become more strident, in sync with its enhanced military posture and ambitious economic and infrastructure projects.
Topic:
NATO, Cold War, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, and Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, North America, Arctic, and United States of America

432. Prospects For Russia’s Policy Towards Afghanistan

Author:
Anna Maria Dyner and Arkadiusz Legieć
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Taking advantage of the withdrawal of the U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan, Russia intends to strengthen its influence in that country by increasing contacts with the Afghan government and the Taliban. The aim is to become a key mediator in the peace process, which will enable it to influence the participants, increase control over the situation in Afghanistan, and use it in relations with the countries of the region. Russia’s policy may make the stabilisation of Afghanistan more difficult and undermine the effects of the efforts made by NATO countries during the stabilisation mission.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, South Asia, and Eurasia

433. Developments in U.S. Defence Spending: Implications for NATO

Author:
Artur Kacprzyk
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
After a few years of increases, U.S. defence spending is likely to stagnate. At the same time, the needs related to the U.S. priority of deterring China will grow. The effect will be that the U.S. will continue to call for a greater contribution of NATO members to their own defence, even given the softening of transatlantic tensions and positive signals regarding the U.S. military presence in Europe.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Military Spending, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
China, North America, and United States of America

434. NATO on the Road to a New Strategy

Author:
Wojciech Lorenz
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
During the meeting of NATO foreign ministers on 2–3 December 2020, a group of experts presented the report “NATO 2030. United for a New Era” about strengthening the political dimension and consultation mechanisms of the Alliance. The report indicates a possible consensus on the expansion of the Alliance’s tasks, including on a common policy towards China. The document increases the chances that the allies will decide to start work on a new NATO strategy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, Military Strategy, Alliance, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and United States of America

435. The Integration of the Western Balkans in NATO: a Logical Step in the Strengthening of the Regional Security Community in South East Europe

Author:
Plamen Pantev
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
In the Spring of 1991 Mette Skak, a Danish political scientist, and the author of this article, discussed in Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridsky” during a BulgarianDanish conference the possibilities of building a security community in the Balkans – in a similar way as it has been created in the Nordic region of Europe and in the territory covered by NATO and then European Community (EC). The core idea of this concept, elaborated during the 1960s by the American political scholar Karl Deutsch, was to get rid of war as a method of solving conflicting interests between states. It is unthinkable and inapplicable for the member countries of the security community to use force in case of a dispute among them. Of course, certain preconditions are to be met by the participating states and key among them is compatibility of the values of the societies and the states in the group. The discussion led to naming this idea of the two scholars as ‘political science fiction’. To some extent this assessment was true – the wars in a dissolving Yugoslavia had not yet started, the former federation has been lured by the EC, USA and still existing USSR to preserve at any cost its integrity, the animosities of the Cold War Balkan international relations were still persisting, the national democratic transformations in the former totalitarian states were just beginning to toddle.
Topic:
NATO, Regional Cooperation, International Security, Military Affairs, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Bulgaria, Balkans, and Southeast Europe

436. January 2021 Issue

Author:
Bruce Hoffman, Jacob Ware, Stephen Hummel, Paul Cruickshank, Don Rassler, Jonathan Schroden, and Nodirbek Soliev
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
The violent storming of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, has heightened concerns about the threat posed by far-right extremism in the United States. In examining the wide range of terrorism and counterterrorism challenges facing the incoming Biden administration in this month’s feature commentary, Bruce Hoffman and Jacob Ware write that “the January 6 events at the U.S. Capitol offered a stark, frightening picture of the powerful forces fueling a conspiratorial mindset eschewing both the country’s foundational democratic values and the rule of law” and “serves as a salutary and timely reminder of the danger of potential violence to come.” Given the continued threat posed by “a stubbornly resilient Islamic State and an implacably determined al-Qa`ida,” they write that “it may be that as the United States and its allies enter the third decade of war against international salafi-jihadi terrorism, we need to recalibrate our immediate expectations away from ‘winning’ and ‘losing,’ toward ‘accepting’ and ‘managing’ this conflict. Such an admission would not be popular, but it would be a fairer reflection of the current state of the fight against terrorism, and a more honest prediction of what to expect over the next four, or more, years.” Our interview is with David Lasseter, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction. He notes that “advances in synthetic biology and other related biotechnologies hold the potential for both promise and peril in their application. And so we’ve got to be cognizant of how such technological shifts can alter the threat landscape [and] impose new defense and security challenges. We’ve heard it said that biological weapons are ‘a poor man’s nuke,’ given the potentially enormous impact of their usage. I think COVID-19 has further accelerated this mindset. The U.S. has had a watchful eye on bio threats and has elevated bio threats as a core national security priority over the past several years.” In an assessment that has far-reaching implications for the U.S. military mission in Afghanistan, Jonathan Schroden finds that if the United States were to withdraw the remainder of its troops from the country, the Taliban would have “a slight military advantage” over Afghanistan’s security forces, “which would then likely grow in a compounding fashion.” Nodirbek Soliev examines the Tajik connection in an Islamic State plot against U.S. and NATO air bases in Germany thwarted in April 2020.
Topic:
NATO, Taliban, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, Joe Biden, and January 6
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Europe, Tajikistan, Germany, and United States of America

437. A disavowed ambassador: José María de Areilza and Spain´s failed entry into NATO/Un embajador desautorizado: José María de Areilza y el fallido ingreso de España en la OTAN (1954-1960)

Author:
Pablo Guerrero
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
This research article examines the diplomatic efforts at the highest level carried out by José María de Areilza (1909-1998), who served as a Spanish ambassador to the United States between 1954 and 1960, in order to advance Francoist Spain entry into NATO. Drawing on diplomatic documents, primarily letters and reports, the article outlines that from the very moment he took office, Ambassador Areilza openly advocated before the Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs the entry of Spain into the North Atlantic Alliance as a means to both strengthen military and economic ties with the United States and to foster the slow international rehabilitation of the Franco regime. However, the Spanish Government’s reluctance to push for NATO membership, which prompted a severe admonition from Minister Martín Artajo to his ambassador, along with the inability of US diplomacy to overcome the resistance of those allies which opposed the candidacy of Spain, ultimately led Areiza’s efforts to failure./Este artículo aborda las gestiones diplomáticas al más alto nivel efectuadas por José María de Areilza (1909-1998), quien se desempeñó como embajador español en los Estados Unidos entre 1954 y 1960, a fin de facilitar el ingreso de la España de Franco en la OTAN. Mediante el apoyo en documentos diplomáticos, primordialmente cartas e informes, se expone cómo desde el mismo momento en que tomó posesión de su puesto, el embajador Areilza propugnó abiertamente ante el Ministerio de Asuntos Exteriores la entrada de España en la Alianza Atlántica como medio para fortalecer los vínculos militares y económicos con los Estados Unidos y avanzar en la lenta rehabilitación internacional del régimen franquista. Sin embargo, las reticencias que el Gobierno español abrigaba a propósito del ingreso en la OTAN, las cuales motivaron una severa admonición del ministro Martín Artajo a su embajador, unidas a la incapacidad de la diplomacia estadounidense para vencer la resistencia de los aliados que se oponían a la candidatura española, condujeron las diligencias llevadas a cabo por Areilza al fracaso.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Europe, Spain, and United States of America

438. La perspectiva de género en las operaciones militares. Exigencia jurídica y operativa

Author:
Javier Ruiz Arévalo
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
The inclusion of the gender perspective in military operations is now a legal requirement. This exigency is mainly consequence of the doption of the UNSCR 1325. But it is also an operational requirement derived from the need to take into account in decision-making processes the human factor in all its dimensions, to ensure that military actions are adapted to the reality of the scenario in which they take place. This article tries to show that, in the process of integrating this aspect in operations, decision makers tend to only consider the legal aspects of this issue, ignoring the operational benefits that it entails. The official documents of organizations such as the UN or NATO, recognize this duality but, in practice, do not develop this perspective in their operating procedures. All this creates significant problems for those responsible for integrating the gender perspective in operations and requires the introduction of regulatory changes along these lines./Integrar la perspectiva de género en la conducción de las operaciones militares es una exigencia jurídica derivada principalmente de la RCSNU 1325. Pero es también una exigencia operativa derivada de la necesidad de tener en cuenta en los procesos de toma de decisiones el factor humano en toda su extensión, para garantizar que las actuaciones propias se adaptan a la realidad del escenario en el que se desarrollan. A lo largo de este trabajo se evidencia que, en la integración de este aspecto en las operaciones, se tiende a incidir únicamente en los aspectos jurídicos de esta cuestión, pasando por alto los beneficios operativos que conlleva. Los documentos oficiales de organizaciones como la ONU o la OTAN, reconocen esta dualidad pero, en la práctica, no la desarrollan en sus procedimientos operativos, lo que supone un problema para los responsables de integrar la perspectiva de género en las operaciones y hace necesario introducir cambios normativos en esta línea.
Topic:
NATO, Gender Issues, Human Rights, United Nations, Military Affairs, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

439. Military Security of Poland – From Theory to Practice

Author:
Grzegorz Sobolewski
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
National and international security remains a fascinating area of scientific research. Studies of phenomena and processes in military security suggest that we are witnessing great and intense changes. In their analyses of the modern security environment, both NATO and the EU wish to accommodate the existing conditions. Poland also has been affected by that process. The security policy should be based on the main assumption that Poland is a sovereign security entity, able to define its national interests and strategic objectives autonomously. However, the foundations of our security are assured by membership in the EU and NATO, good relations in the region, a strategic alliance with the USA, and an internal defense mechanism. The needs of the state and the society for national security arise from a dynamic rate of changes in challenges and hazards. The Author intends to combine theory with practice that is implemented in favor of the military security of Poland. First of all, the essence of military security is presented from theoretical and utilitarian viewpoints. The subsequent parts of the paper present research results related to the identification of contemporary challenges and hazards to the military security of Poland. This approach provided an opportunity to outline assumptions of policy and strategy underlying military security in current international security conditions.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

440. Sea Change? The Impact of the US Presidential Election on Central and South-Eastern European Security and Defence

Author:
Corina Rebegea, Wojciech Michnik, and Ivan Vejvoda
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
This LSE IDEAS report assesses the likely impact of the new Biden administration on security and defence in the Black Sea, Balkan and Central European regions. The report finds grounds for optimism but also for managing expectations. President Biden's support for multilateral security approaches is likely to strengthen NATO and regional cooperation, particularly on Russia, but the region cannot expect to be the US' top priority. A return to values-based diplomacy under Biden, too, may put pressure on democratically-backsliding allies to whom his predecessor turned a blind eye.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, Elections, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America