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321. The Economics of Great Power Competition: Why Germany Must Step Up on Defense

Author:
Markus Jaeger
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Without a sound economic foundation, political and military ambitions cannot be sustained. This also applies to the geopolitical competition between the United States and its rivals. So far, America and its allies are economically ahead of Russia and China. But where Russia’s long-term outlook is weak, China’s economic might is rapidly increasing. Despite the war in Ukraine, Washington will have to focus its resources on Asia. In Europe, Germany, with its large financial and economic base, should lead on military spending and enhanced security.
Topic:
NATO, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, and Competition
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Germany, and United States of America

322. NATO's Asia-Pacific Partners & Their Ukraine Response: Why Global Partnerships Matter for America

Author:
Kimery Lynch
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Kimery Lynch, a Projects Coordinator at the East-West Center in Washington, explains how NATO has been stepping up engagement with its four “Asia-Pacific partners” (Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand) in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
Topic:
NATO, Partnerships, Engagement, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Japan, Europe, Ukraine, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

323. Is Ukraine Poised to Join NATO and the European Union?

Author:
Oden Eran and Shimon Stein
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there are more and more voices in the West calling for Kiev’s acceptance into NATO and the European Union. However, this is not the time for rapid measures. Now that Putin has backed himself int a corner, the United States and Europe, in parallel with the harsh sanctions imposed on Russia and the assistance to Ukraine, must leave Moscow a way out
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and North America

324. Avoiding the Dangers of a Protracted Conflict in Ukraine

Author:
Anatol Lieven, Sarang Shidore, and Marcus Stanley
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
A protracted conflict in Ukraine looks increasingly plausible. Russia continues to launch attacks on military and civilian targets, and the United States and its partners are increasing shipments of arms to the Zelensky government. Washington is reportedly making plans to support long-term guerrilla warfare against Russian forces, should Kyiv fall. The current path toward a protracted war in Ukraine is highly undesirable and is laden with grave risks to the interests of the United States, Ukraine, and the international community. Such risks include: • a high cost in Ukrainian lives and suffering and the destruction of Ukraine — its infrastructure, institutions, and social fabric; • radicalization of Ukrainian society and a consequent civil war; • escalation to a great-power war, potentially involving nuclear weapons and pitting NATO against Russia, thereby threatening U.S. national security; • a weakening of NATO’s cohesion; • a prolonged global recession that strikes the U.S. as hard as it will any other nation. The United States and its allies should avoid these destructive outcomes by prioritizing support for the Ukrainian government to achieve a diplomatic settlement. Such a settlement will result in a more secure outcome for Ukraine, the United States, the European allies, and the rest of the world. While the details of such a settlement lie beyond this brief’s scope, the progress of Ukrainian–Russian talks indicates that a settlement providing for meaningful sovereignty and independence for Ukraine is possible. Avoiding a protracted conflict also implies that the United States should not adopt maximalist objectives, such as regime change in Moscow or the complete and decisive defeat of Russia. It should instead deploy sanctions to build up Ukraine’s negotiating leverage.
Topic:
NATO, Conflict, Escalation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

325. NATO’s Tunnel Vision

Author:
George Beebe
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
Despite Russia’s violent rejection of a NATO-centric Europe, the United States should still pursue its vision of a continent that will one day be “peaceful, whole, and free.” The alternative is a blood-soaked division of the continent, constantly prone to escalation into a direct conflict with Russia. The United States needs to adopt a different approach to achieving its vision, as follows: • The path to peace must begin with settling the conflict in Ukraine, and the key to a settlement is securing Ukraine’s independence as a neutral state outside NATO. • If Europe is to be whole, NATO cannot serve as its overarching security arm. NATO should focus on defense of its existing members, not expanding its ranks or operating out of area, including against China. • Over time, our goal should be evolution toward a U.N. Security Council-type arrangement in Europe that includes both NATO and non-NATO members. The price of admission for Russia must be good faith compliance with the terms of a settlement in Ukraine. • If Europe is to be free, we must recognize that a stable security environment in Europe is a prerequisite for the ex-Soviet states gradually becoming more liberal. The best means of ensuring that Europe is free is by revitalizing democracy within the West itself.
Topic:
Security, NATO, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

326. The importance of cybersecurity for Bosnia and Herzegovina Policy recommendations to support BiH’s cyber capabilities and international aspirations

Author:
Nicolo Miotto
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Centre for Security Studies
Abstract:
Cybersecurity is a fundamental domain for Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) as it impacts the country‘s national security, its economic growth and its international commitments and goals. Despite the importance of cyberspace for the country, BiH lacks a comprehensive approach to cybersecurity, having instead a jeopardised approach which hinders its cybersecurity efforts. The country‘s cybersecurity capabilities are underdeveloped, exposing governmental bodies, private companies and citizens to potential cyber threats and risks. Limited cybersecurity capabilities can undermine BiH‘s efforts to access the EU and NATO as these international organisations require states to respect and adopt specific cybersecurity standards and legislation. Hence, BiH needs to improve its cybersecurity architecture to achieve its international goals. In addition, the country must enhance its cybersecurity to accomplish international obligations deriving from the country‘s membership of international organisations and its ratification of the Budapest Convention. Although the country presents embryonic cybersecurity capabilities, BiH public institutions are improving their cybersecurity awareness by providing public employees with workshops, seminars, and training courses on cybersecurity. As of this, international and domestic cooperation represents a pivotal opportunity for BiH to build and enhance its cyber capabilities; intergovernmental organisations, research centres and partner counties are providing BiH public institutions with funds and training opportunities in the field of cybersecurity.
Topic:
NATO, Crime, European Union, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
Europe, Balkans, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

327. Agenda OTAN 2030 y Concepto Estratégico 2022

Author:
Carmen Romero
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
El momento crítico que atraviesa la seguridad europea tras la agresión de Rusia contra Ucrania ha alterado el entorno estratégico y obliga a la Alianza Atlántica a repensar su posición. Sunuevo concepto estratégico a aprobar en 2022 está marcado por este hecho histórico. Si bien, esta nueva estrategia está guiada a su vez por la Agenda OTAN 2030, adoptada en 2019, que establece una serie de principios como guía: unidad, defensa colectiva, resiliencia, salvaguarda de las infraestructuras y superioridad tecnológica. Así, este ensayo estratégico quiere reflexionar sobre este proceso para que la Alianza y la OTAN sean claves en la defensa del orden de seguridad internacional. Con este fin,analiza las claves de dicho entorno y cómo la organización pretende responder a esos desafíos, lo que tiene evidentes y potenciales implicaciones para España.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Resilience, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

328. La contribución de España a la OTAN: el Flanco Este y sus relaciones con Rusia

Author:
Mateo Moreno Barahona and Alberto Priego
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
España se integra en la OTAN, en 1982. Sin embargo, debido a diferentes cuestiones, España ha mantenido una relación privilegiada con Rusia y no siempre ha seguido la línea marcada por la OTAN. Este artículo ofrece un caso de estudio sobre en qué medida la política exterior de España ha convergido o no con la de la OTAN en relación con el Flanco Este.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Spain

329. OTAN, España y el FrenteSur. Análisis geopolítico tras cuarenta años de experiencia compartida

Author:
Emily E. Arnold-Fernández
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
Cuatro décadas es tiempo suficiente para realizar un balance de la relación de España con la OTAN, como miembro de pleno derecho.Balance de particular interés en este periodo en el que hemos asistido a tantos cambios en el contexto internacional; cambios que han afectado a nuestra percepción de amenazas y a los modos de hacerles frente.Este trabajo analizará desde dos enfoques la experiencia española como miembro de la Alianza y los distintos estados de la relación, tanto con la Organización, como con su principal socio. El primero tomará en consideración los condicionantes domésticos de cada una de las partes. El segundo, atenderá a los condicionantessistémicos que tanto han variado desde la época de la guerra fría. Particular atención merecerá el siempre mejorable enfoque del denominado “flanco Sur”, con la vista puesta en la elaboración del nuevo concepto estratégico de la OTAN. Al respecto, se atenderá a las distintas sensibilidades dentro de la Alianza y la reivindicación de un trato análogo al recibido por el tradicional “flanco Este”. El contenido del documento de reflexión para la elaboración del nuevo concepto estratégico OTAN respecto a la proyección sur, puede implicar un cambio en la naturaleza de la relación con esta zona de operaciones. La metodología de investigación de basará en una serie de entrevistas sobre la base de una encuesta previa a oficiales españoles con experiencia práctica en la OTAN, tanto en operaciones como en diversos puestos directivos. Se incluirán también elementos de la consideración norteamericana respecto a la participación española. Combinados los resultados con el apoyo científico de académicos, foros de defensa y contribuciones de think tanks, se extraerán las conclusiones y recomendaciones para una mayor y mejor comprensión en los próximos cuarenta años.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Budget, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:
Europe and Spain

330. Estrategia militar de la OTAN: doctrinas y conceptos estratégicos. Recepción en España

Author:
José Luis Calvo Albero
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
La estrategia y la doctrina militar de la OTAN se han convertido en una de las referencias principales para el pensamiento estratégico occidental y también para el desarrollo de la estrategia y doctrina militar en España. La estrategia de la Alianza partióde un escenario muy específico en la Guerra Fría para ampliarse después de ella hacia un papel de estabilización fuera de Europa, y retornar paradójicamente al punto de partida debido al renacimiento de la amenaza rusa. En ese camino se desarrollaron conceptos clave sobre el empleo del poder militar convencional, de las armas nucleares y de las nuevas formas de conflicto asimétrico o híbrido. Pese a que España ingresó en la OTAN tarde y de una manera muy peculiar, la estrategia y la doctrina OTAN resultaron esenciales para modernizar tanto las fuerzas armadas como el propio pensamiento estratégico denuestro país.
Topic:
NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, and Destabilization
Political Geography:
Europe