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61. Timor-Leste’s uncertain future

Author:
Parker Novak
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
This paper intends to start a conversation about a broad yet crucial question: what does the future hold for Timor-Leste? And in turn, what does that mean for the Indo-Pacific region? It examines key challenges confronting the country over the next decade, with a focus on how economics, governance, and the transnational issues of climate change, pandemic preparedness, and geopolitics will impact the small island nation. Timor-Leste has accomplished a great deal over the past two decades but faces headwinds that, if left unaddressed, could undo much of what it has achieved. Its future is not preordained, and decisions made by Asia’s youngest nation over the coming years will determine the direction it takes. Australia and Indonesia loom large in this equation, and they will certainly have a vested interest in the course Timor-Leste chooses to take.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Economy, Occupation, Multilateralism, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific and Timor-Leste

62. Franco-German leadership in European security: Engine in reverse gear?

Author:
Iro Särkkä and Minna Ålander
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Germany and France led the European response to Russia’s first war in Ukraine following the annexation of Crimea in 2014. The legacy of the failed Minsk process weighed on their ability to change course in 2022, as the required response went beyond economic sanctions and diplomatic negotiations. In both the French and the German case, there is a mismatch between self-perception and external expectations. France lacks the economic and military resources to substantiate its great-power identity, while Germany’s selective leadership is not on a par with its economic weight. As a result, neither French President Emmanuel Macron nor German Chancellor Olaf Scholz were able to provide convincing leadership in the initial stages of Russia’s second war in Ukraine in 2022. While the Franco-German reconciliation has historically constituted the core of European integration, their response to Russia’s war of aggression and its wider implications in Europe has made it clear that the Franco-German engine is struggling to provide coherent and effective wartime leadership. The two countries should not only acknowledge the enduring central role of the transatlantic link for European security, but also enhance cooperation with groups of smaller countries – and consider following their lead, too.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Leadership, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, France, and Germany

63. The Man Who Would be King: Muqtada al-Sadr’s Legitimation in the Iraqi Shi’a Field

Author:
Ryan Zoellner
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
On July 27, 2022, Iraq’s sclerotic government formation process finally broke. After ten months of failed negotiations to form a cabinet—the longest stalemate since 2003—protestors infiltrated Baghdad’s Green Zone, making themselves at home in the offices of parliament. Their objective was to disrupt the nomination of a rival parliamentarian, Mohammad Shia’ al-Sudani, to the Premiership, and while ultimately unsuccessful, this was done with optical gusto. Having made their point, the intruders were told by their leadership to “go home and pray,” only to return for a longer stint three days later.[1] On both occasions, the occupants came with signs bearing the image of Shi’a cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. Often described as “Iraq’s Kingmaker,” Muqtada al-Sadr exercises an authority over a large swath of Iraq’s Shi’a population that seemingly transcends Iraqi political institutions and even the transnational Shi’a religious establishment. As a cleric and political leader, Sadr controls formal institutions including religious endowments, tithing networks, schools, political offices, and a militia. However, as events of the summer made clear, Sadr’s most potent means of exercising power is the mobilization of his followers, a force that can be leveraged with or without formal integration into the political order. Given this influence, Western media and analysts have scrambled to ask, “Who is Muqtada al-Sadr?” Current profiles of Sadr are often as two-dimensional as they were during his first emergence in the 2003 invasion. Sadr is presented in binaries; he is anti-Iranian or anti-American, an insurgent leader or a revolutionary, a holy man or a demagogue. This paper aims to furnish a more robust answer to the question by drawing upon Max Weber’s typology of authority. It will give an account of Sadr’s legitimacy in the Iraqi Shi’a religious field with respect to his traditional, legal, and charismatic authority.
Topic:
Leadership, Domestic Politics, Shia, and Muqtada al-Sadr
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

64. The Leadership Conundrum in Nigeria and Implications for the Development and Peace of the Niger Delta Region

Author:
Tapuka Gerald and William H. Arrey
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
In 1999, a new political era opened in Nigeria with the inauguration of the Presidency of Olusegun Obasanjo. This marked the beginning of the Fourth Republic. Though a retired military General, Obasanjo’s Presidency was rooted in a civilian platform following Presidential elections organised by the military leader, General Abdulsalami Abubakar. Prior to this, Nigerians had witnessed only one political transition through the ballot box. This occurred in 1979, when General Olusegun Obasanjo relinquished power to a civilian President, Shehu Shagari. Since 1999, Nigerians have unabatedly enjoyed the luxury of political transitions without military intervention or the barrel of the gun. In the past two decades, political transitions in Africa have been a rare phenomenon given the multiplicity of protracted presidencies and constitutional changes to foster the reign of long serving political leaders. For example, in Cameroon, President Paul Biya has ruled unabatedly for forty one (41) years. The multiplicity of elections has rather certified Biya’s protracted presidency. Likewise, though the country has been independent for more than six decades, there has not been a single ballot-based political transition. As such, incumbents have always won every election with a crushing majority. Moreover, within the six countries (Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon) of the Central African Monetary Community (CEMAC), political transitions have been inevitably limited to the dead syndrome and not ballot box. It has paved the way for family succession as in Chad and Gabon and the subsequent unconstitutional change of governments and military coup , respectively in these countries. While ballot box transitions are still a challenge in most African countries, Nigeria’s transition have morphed to the level where an incumbent is defeated in an election by an opposition candidate. Going by this, in 2015 incumbent Goodluck Jonathan was defeated by opposition candidate, Muhammadu Buhari. Since the advent of multiparty elections in most African countries in the early 1990s, such political transitions have been sustainable in few African countries including Zambia, Senegal, Ghana, Malawi, Tanzania and The Gambia. This puts Nigeria in a more comfortable political situation than most African countries. Coupled with its estimated population of 213.4 million persons in 2021 (World Bank, 2023), Nigeria has the second largest crude oil reserves (37 billion barrels) in Africa, after Libya (US Energy Information Administration, 2020). Nigeria ultimately projects itself as a pinnacle of success and an African political giant which should evidently be translated into an Eldorado of peace and development especially in the Niger Delta area. Notwithstanding, the record breaking political successes on paper has not been translated into meaningful stability on the ground. In the last two decades, Nigeria has become one of the most unsafe countries in Africa and Niger Delta in particular even though not officially engaged in any civil war or military takeover as in precedent decades. Daily happenings reveal that the situation is becoming dire and civilians are caught in the web of violence and kidnappings. In 2018 alone, there were 416 violent incidents resulting in over one thousand deaths. In 2018, 351 of such incidences were recorded resulting in 546 deaths (Campbell, 2019). This shows a steady increase in violence in the Niger Delta. Within this period, there was also a significant rise in militant activities mainly against oil companies and Nigeria’s capacity to produced crude oil. Less than a decade after the Federal Amnesty in 2009 which saw a lull in militant activities including the main militant group MEND, another militant group, the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA) emerged in 2016. Equipped as MEND with similar tactics and motives, the group succeeded in reducing Nigeria’s oil producing capacity from 2.2 million barrels of oil per day to 1.4 million. The militarisation of the area by Presidents especially Muhammadu Buhari who promised to use his military strategy to put out any uprising in Nigeria instead amplified the violence. Between 1999 and 2022, four Presidents have ruled Nigeria. However, none of these leaders have succeeded in alienating the Niger Delta from a past, rooted in insecurity and acute development challenges. Despite promises of alleviating poverty and curbing the rise of insecurity by successive Presidents, the area has still maintained a negative blueprint. Ethnicity is still rife and politics is decided on ethnic lines and the wealth produced by the area is unable to raise the standard of living of the people. Bamidele and Erameh (2023) argue that despite a flurry of measures, the Niger Delta remains stuck in environmental degradation because the policies of the government and companies is focused on gains at the expense of resource-related environmental utility. A better understanding of the Nigerian situation is sourced from the leadership and culture of violence (I), Nigeria’s leadership and violent resolution of conflicts (II), and the failure to convert Niger Delta’s wealth to national blessings (III).
Topic:
Security, Development, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Africa and Niger Delta

65. Managing Palestine’s Looming Leadership Transition

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With Mahmoud Abbas ageing, a change is drawing near at the top of the Palestinian national movement. It remains unclear how a successor will be chosen. Elections are the best way, but Abbas and his circle are likely to try other, riskier means first.
Topic:
Elections, Leadership, Mahmoud Abbas, and Autocracy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, and West Bank

66. Bridging or Breaking the Silos: Young Women’s Leadership in Peacebuilding and Humanitarian Action

Author:
Lynrose Jane Genon
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Global Network of Women Peacebuilders (GNWP)
Abstract:
This research presents how adopting the Youth, Peace and Security (YPS) resolutions has strengthened youth leadership, especially that of young women, in peacebuilding and humanitarian action. It showcases how meaningful inclusion and participation of youth need to extend beyond global policy to the design, implementation, and evaluation of the progress of the YPS agenda. It outlines recommendations for policymakers, practitioners, and researchers working in these areas globally. This publication was created with support from Global Affairs Canada’s Peace and Stabilization Operations Program (PSOP), in the framework of the project “Empowering Rohingya Refugees, Burmese and Bangladeshi Women to Contribute to Sustainable Peace.”
Topic:
Security, Women, Leadership, Youth, Peace, Peacebuilding, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:
Global Focus

67. Can cities cope?

Author:
Francis Kibirige, John Martin Kewaza, Ronald Makanga Kakumba, Stevenson Ssevume Male, Muhammad Ssenkumba, George William Kayanja, Fred Male, and Pius Tibaingana
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
On 1 July 2020, less than a year before January 2021 presidential and parliamentary elections, Uganda’s minister of local government, acting under the Local Governments Act and with the approval of Parliament, elevated 10 of the 15 earmarked municipal councils across the country to city status (Parliament of the Republic of Uganda, 1997, 2020). City status, equal in stature to district local government status, is the highest level that local government units can attain under the current law and is synonymous with near-autonomy, including significant political influence and more control over resource mobilisation and use. Residents in the newly elevated city environs celebrated this administrative milestone amid surging expectations of immediate upgrades of public-services infrastructure and jobs. But the respective administrations awoke to the realities of over-stretched, outdated services infrastructure, and inadequate funding incapable of meeting the heightened level of demand. Can these new cities fulfil their mandate – even in the face of COVID-19-related impacts on the economy and personal living conditions – and cope with soaring public expectations? Evidence from the 2022 Afrobarometer survey suggests that it will not be easy, as the public mood, engagement with elected local leaders, and public service-delivery ratings are on the decline while mistrust, perceptions of official corruption, and resentment toward paying taxes are on the rise.
Topic:
Education, Health, Governance, Leadership, Institutions, Social Services, and Public Service
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

68. A certain idea of Europe: How the next French president can lead

Author:
Susi Dennison and Tara Varma
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Europeans are disillusioned with how the global system of international cooperation is handling today’s challenges. Seventy-one per cent of them believe that the system is not working on climate change. Yet it is at the European level that they see a need to strengthen strategic sovereignty. Even in the weeks leading up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when ECFR’s survey took place, a plurality of respondents said that there was a need for European cooperation to guarantee security at their borders and to tackle future pandemics. They are comfortable with the idea of French leadership on such cooperation efforts. The next French president should pursue a strong European foreign policy agenda to protect Europeans against the threats they are most concerned about, driving the European Union to engage geopolitically with Russian and Chinese efforts to reshape the international order. In doing so, the new French president will cement Europeans’ conviction that the EU can face up to today’s challenges.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, European Union, Leadership, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and France

69. Green peace: How Europe’s climate policy can survive the war in Ukraine

Author:
Susi Dennison
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Russia’s war on Ukraine has weakened European governments’ commitment to EU climate goals. European leaders should intensify their efforts to build clean, sustainable energy security in practice – not just in theory. They should also address the climate challenge as a matter of EU – rather than national – energy sovereignty. Europeans will be locked into longer-term carbon dependency and unable to benefit from economies of scale if they only operate nationally. Strong thought leadership will be needed to achieve this change of mindset. France has an opportunity to build bridges between groups of member states, working alongside the upcoming presidencies of the EU. Denmark, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Austria are all willing partners in this, as they are already cooperating to implement the European Green Deal.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Leadership, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

70. Paradoxical Africanisation of Libya after 2011. Growing influence of sub- Saharan African government, rebel, diplomatic and criminal actors in the post-Gaddafi state

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The 2011 downfall of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi marked a tipping point for Libya’s southern neighbours in re-defining their roles on the regional north-south axis. The era of an assertive Libyan foreign policy on Africa came to a halt. Simultaneously, as a consequence of the civil war, multiple African actors, both state and non-state, assumed greater influence inside and over Libya. The country moved from being an exporter of security and insecurity to sub-Saharan Africa, as under Gaddafi, to becoming an importer. Some aspects of this largely unnoticed, multi-dimensional “Africanisation” [1] of Libya are likely to take root. Changes in Libya’s and sub-Saharan African actors’ standings within the regional setting represent a new reality on the ground that has not been contextualised and analysed thoroughly enough. Only when the international actors do so will they be able to adequately navigate and constructively engage social, political and security structures within the Libya- sub-Saharan Africa framework. Thus, this paper aims to answer the following research questions: in which specific north-south security-related phenomena did sub-Saharan African actors assume agency? Are the motivations of the actors involved opportunistic or do they include long-term political goals? Which aspects of “Africanisation” are taking solid roots and could be sustained beyond the period of Libya’s instability? Will this change to the regional order be temporary and reversible? What are the implications for the European Union (EU) policies related to peace, security and governance in Libya? For the research, several interviews with representatives of the regional armed groups, policy advisors, policy-makers and researchers with an insightful understanding of local and regional dynamics have been conducted since 2018, including during field research in Sudan in 2019. Those have been supplemented by a comprehensive review of existing literature on cross-border conflict dynamics in the Libya-Sudan-Chad-Niger borderlands, Libya-sub-Saharan African relations and relevant documents of international organisations. Historical methods focusing on the long-term and comprehensive processes seen within a big picture are being supplemented with an analytical approach seeking logical consequences and formulating predictions out of hard data and a comparative approach, where models, institutions and experiences are put together with more or less adequate processes found elsewhere.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Governance, Leadership, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Libya